[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 This aged well @Into the Legion-Verse

The 4x knock with no positive reacts 😂

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

46 minutes ago, M37 said:

Distribution of guesses for the Flash OW Contest. Blue dot is guess nearest to the median/average/geomean, around $69.5M, and green is cloest to where the current estimate stands ... via @Into the Legion-Verse, who absolutely called the trashy IM

 

If only I had stuck to my initial 54.321 😆

 

Couldn’t see this reception coming, but the Fri sales were pretty yikes the whole way through plus relatively predictable +10ish Sat -single sun taking 1.6x to a 6x.

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

I do put reasonable stock in a better final week than those comps, been eyeballing 8.5-10. Perhaps *7.5-9?

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Across below gotg2 imo but should beat 3.   
 

They gave a pretty bullish sun for flash btw, should drop with actuals (and maybe even under Shazam’s official OW though I already consider it under).

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Wow that seems like REALLY bad for TLM. Wonder if they are figuring it struggles on father’s day

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Flop. The thread needs 200 pages to break even

If we count it as a 4 day and get a really funny sun figure…

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

💯 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

6 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

But I swear a lot of posters on BOT told me that The Last Mermaid was a bomb

 

 

Do you think making $30 instead of $20 in Japan has some big impact on profitability?   
 

The DOM legs were good enough that it’ll be fine but still a pretty uninspiring ROI with the gross vs budget.

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

49 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Don't tell me what I can or can't do with predictions for how films will play out. There are no rules there. 🤣

 

CS is not gospel. I have seen too many of these films. Flash WOM will be fine. 

Flash WOM will be as fine as I’ve been telling you the flash OW would be

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Not even The Little Mermaid survived this weekend. What an insane bloodbath.

Only Gotg was able to stand up to the competition from Asteroid City

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Do we have Spider Verse, TLM and Guardians Saturday numbers yet? Hoping all hold well.

We do 

they didn’t

 

Edit: well, gotg did solid just not the bigger ones

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

18 minutes ago, Austin said:

@Into the Legion-Verse was it you pointing to a $56M OW for The Flash for like the last month lol? Might be spot on. What a disaster of a weekend for the box office.

I didn't quite pull the trigger on sub 10 and sub 6x midpoints until the final week but I have been hammering away at stuff in the 50-65 zone being very possible for about a month yeah (since first day of PS).

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

is 70m+ still in play?

Yeah we might be able to see 70M OWeek still

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

14 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

 

Wbk

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Hmm lightyear actually ended up as a great Flash comp huh

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Chloe will write and direct Eternals 2 because Feige understands that Eternals wad great 😎

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

34 minutes ago, Ross612 said:

So then are you only hype for Superman?

No, directors aren't generally a big component of what makes me excited for a movie.   

 

As far as that component goes though I would say:

Gunn -- significant trust 

Mangold -- moderate trust

Andy -- negative trust 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Spider-Verse is probably climbing back to #1 next weekend.

And elemental #2

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

35 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

70% drop next week incoming 

An optimist I see

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

Checks in on weekend thread …

Yeah the penetrated typo was bothering me too

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

37 minutes ago, Ross612 said:

This pretty much. Don't know why some can't just trust Gunn on this if you actually trust him with Superman: Beyond. 

Easiest to trust a great director/novice producer to direct than to produce 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

And he did deliver a generally well received movie despite being one of the most chaotic hollywood projects of the century

Uhhh… did he though?

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

Indeed it is a curse in truth 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

CJohn is right

 

Movies are dead

 

Santa isn’t real

 

Thanksgiving is a lie

3 outta 4 ain’t bad