[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's the same flavour as the "it's called capitalism" line in the indiana jones trailer. idk they must think it plays well with the twitter crowd.

I think the thought process from the writers is more along the lines of “this plays well with me [because I’m part fo the Twitter crowd]”

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

The “Batman’s a fascist” joke at the end is so weird to me. Like I don’t understand what the punchline or the context

It’s funny because Batman is a fascist 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

5 minutes ago, stripe said:

If Flash and Elemental underperform this could be the last weekend with 30M+ grosser since mid February.

 

With this weekend, we will have 18 consecutive weekends with a 30M+ grosser. A tie with the longest streak until now, that happened in 2016.

 

If next weekend either The Flash, Elemental or No Hard Feelings gross more than 30M, we will have a record!

I suspect next wknd #1 will be below 20

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

so how much OW we can expect from Flash, $65M?

Probably more like 55

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

14 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

No holiday next weekend, I look forward to the meltdown when this drops 65% after an already turgid OW

An optimist I see

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Oh man that post track. Under Shazam is still kicking

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

7 minutes ago, GambitPool said:

 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

5 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

I feel like KFP as an IP has built up a lot of love since the last one came out. I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised with 70M but also not surprised with 110M.
 

Mufasa doesn’t worry me. I know the 2019 version isn’t beloved but it’s still the Lion King, it’s still the summer, and Mufasa is the most popular character. JEJ will not be denied.

 

Thunderbolts I think they’ll make it a big enough crossover + holidays to get it done. 

I feel like the most popular character is… Simba. But my biggest concern is that it’s an original spin-off prequel, not a close adaptation of a beloved Renaissance movie. Dropping off hard seems quite possible so I would just put it in potential.   
 

I do think that they’re got some tricks up their sleeve for thunderbolts in terms of draw and hopefully good movies have restored good will by then but xmas holidays is a detriment to the OW, not an aid!

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

7 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

2023

Aquaman 2

🧐

7 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

I was thinking about this a little bit franchise history of 60 40 40 is… eh

 

The only expecteds that make me nervous are Mufasa and Thunderbolts

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$9.7M official Flash previews

 

On 6/10/2023 at 6:10 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

  my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

 

On 6/12/2023 at 5:33 PM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

T-3

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.50	$8.80	$9.10	$9.40	$9.70	$10.00	$10.30	$10.60	$10.90
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$45.90	$47.52	$49.14	$50.76	$52.38	$54.00	$55.62	$57.24	$58.86
	5.6	$47.60	$49.28	$50.96	$52.64	$54.32	$56.00	$57.68	$59.36	$61.04
	5.8	$49.30	$51.04	$52.78	$54.52	$56.26	$58.00	$59.74	$61.48	$63.22
	6	$51.00	$52.80	$54.60	$56.40	$58.20	$60.00	$61.80	$63.60	$65.40
	6.2	$52.70	$54.56	$56.42	$58.28	$60.14	$62.00	$63.86	$65.72	$67.58
	6.4	$54.40	$56.32	$58.24	$60.16	$62.08	$64.00	$65.92	$67.84	$69.76
	6.6	$56.10	$58.08	$60.06	$62.04	$64.02	$66.00	$67.98	$69.96	$71.94
	6.8	$57.80	$59.84	$61.88	$63.92	$65.96	$68.00	$70.04	$72.08	$74.12
	7	$59.50	$61.60	$63.70	$65.80	$67.90	$70.00	$72.10	$74.20	$76.30

 

Edit: FWIW you can take the penultimate values on each direction of each axis as my 80% credence interval

 

On 6/15/2023 at 4:05 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

Deal 🤝

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

No PLFs though.

Cmon you can’t seriously believe that Marvels won’t have a massive majority of PLFs when it opens

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

Feeling more 80-90m for that one. Think Dune and Hunger Games will all eat into each other.

But marvels is the only one with a holiday weekend     
 

 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What's the next movie to open over 100m?

Marvels, then Spiderverse, then Deadpool 

 

Reasonable chance that the next after that is cap

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

 

Same with Tangled, though both it and BH6 got their own TV show instead.

Which were then decanonized by D+ it seems

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

With 10 million Previews, i guess my 59 million prediction is gone in smoke.

 

And btw this 59 million prediction was made back in May. I saw through all the attempts made by WB to create hype.

59 is very on the table if it does come in 10

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

9 minutes ago, Dominic Draper said:

Oh okay. How could they be that off.

Before sales predictions have to go a lot off either:

Internet metrics

Or

Polling  

 

With a dash of franchise history/analogy to similar movies.   

 

Given that the initial ranges for DC in the 2020s have ranged from "too high" to "extremely too high" I'm guessing that it's been drawing too much from social stuff where DC overindexes and 2010s performances which were from before the brand was as dead.  

 

The one recent DC where the initial range was very good was BA which seems to have leveraged the star and lack of 2010s era characters to play more GA 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

 

7 minutes ago, Dominic Draper said:

There was that fake tracking reported like a week or 2 before real tracking from pre sales that spread on social media saying it was tracking to open to 110-140.

That wasn't fake, 115-140 was the real BOP range

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Realistically like 10 and 3 maybe for say 60 and 35

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tell me for one movie they were accurate with early previews. They went with 16m for Spidey and 14m for Guardians !!!

Thats fine for Spidey? Like 8% off.  

 

Did they actually say 14 for gotg though? That's some funny shit

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Just now, martin said:

Deadline never right on money with CBM.

Dont tend to be 22% off either.

 

But ignore deadline completely, we still know it's looking more mid 9s-low 10s

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

31 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

So it's almost a lock Elemental and Flash do 100M combined?

No. Very unlikely actually

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Can anyone confirm that this math checks out?  This dude is cool and all but he's made some hyperbolic statements in the past,  as recently as a half hour ago. 

Forget it Johnny, it’s exceltown

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:46 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Note that these *do* still include JW4 to remain apples to apples. Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

Sacto did at last kick up slightly:

Spoiler

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

T-2 8.99M

T-1 9.13M

 

Without S2:

Spoiler

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

T-2 8.28M

T-1 8.56M

 

Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

9.34M

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

2 minutes ago, deniima said:

The worst part about these Flash numbers to me is that the streak of a movie grossing 30M+ every weekend since mid-February will likely be broken next week. I thought the Flash's second weekend would surely be high enough to allow the streak to run until like August but...  

Believe in the power of multiverses 

[The Flash — Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!]

49999999