[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

18 minutes ago, Austin said:

@Into the Legion-Verse was it you pointing to a $56M OW for The Flash for like the last month lol? Might be spot on. What a disaster of a weekend for the box office.

I didn't quite pull the trigger on sub 10 and sub 6x midpoints until the final week but I have been hammering away at stuff in the 50-65 zone being very possible for about a month yeah (since first day of PS).

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

is 70m+ still in play?

Yeah we might be able to see 70M OWeek still

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

14 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

 

Wbk

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Hmm lightyear actually ended up as a great Flash comp huh

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Chloe will write and direct Eternals 2 because Feige understands that Eternals wad great 😎

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

34 minutes ago, Ross612 said:

So then are you only hype for Superman?

No, directors aren't generally a big component of what makes me excited for a movie.   

 

As far as that component goes though I would say:

Gunn -- significant trust 

Mangold -- moderate trust

Andy -- negative trust 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Spider-Verse is probably climbing back to #1 next weekend.

And elemental #2

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

35 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

70% drop next week incoming 

An optimist I see

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

Checks in on weekend thread …

Yeah the penetrated typo was bothering me too

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

37 minutes ago, Ross612 said:

This pretty much. Don't know why some can't just trust Gunn on this if you actually trust him with Superman: Beyond. 

Easiest to trust a great director/novice producer to direct than to produce 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

And he did deliver a generally well received movie despite being one of the most chaotic hollywood projects of the century

Uhhh… did he though?

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

Indeed it is a curse in truth 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

CJohn is right

 

Movies are dead

 

Santa isn’t real

 

Thanksgiving is a lie

3 outta 4 ain’t bad

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

I need you to use your powers to will a 90M DOM opening and 850M WW total for Dune 2 into existence.

 

Please I have a club that's riding on it.

Sadly I can only peer into the future, not alter it

 

 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

20 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

who knew that 70m tracking number was actually too generous.

👋

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Under $54M??? 

Shazam opened 56.8 with the sneaks

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Flash is going to open lower than Shazam 1 adj for inflation

 

This is insane

 

 

You don’t need to adjust for inflation mate

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 hour ago, screambaby said:

Severley..might not  have 72 thru tiesday

Might not have 72 through Thursday…

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, Austin said:

Bro I'm trying to get through this thread but yall are outpacing me right now stop lmao.

Welcome to a little taste of the BOT golden days. We used to do 100 pages a day for the biggies

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I'm going to project the thread for 97 pages based on the data presented but with a good chance the studio fudges it over

To be clear I think the CBM fan skew will contribute to a frontloaded prepoasting pattern but the exceptional WOM may be able to counteract that some with strong poasting holds on Sat and sun

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

That hasn't been factored in, however I expect to see some over-indexing in this thread to compensate for that as we have not one but two $200m budget bombs this week!

I'm going to project the thread for 97 pages based on the data presented but with a good chance the studio fudges it over

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

10 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

why would aquaman 2 flop?

 

Last one was a massive hit and Jason Mamoa is likeable.

I’ve got 4 letters for ya

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

28 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I was off by $200K, but S/O to @Porthos and @M37 for calling $9.7M early yesterday. Hopefully we can get some IM analysis from the Think tank today

9.7M on Mon and not even a shoutout 😔

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Are you adjusting for QM and TLM being 4days @IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son? If the comp values are final thread length that would be TUES actuals instead of MON which may be why those comps are skewing high.

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

GREATER BOXOFFICETHEORY REGION

The Flash Weekend Thread

 

THURSDAY includes the late weekday thread

 

T-2 Friday Afternoon Update

POSTERS	POSTS MADE	TOTAL POSTS	PERCENT REACTED
76	520	520	9.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST}

POSTS MADE SINCE YESTERDAY

520

 

ACTUALS POSTED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

THREADBANS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.328x) of THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD 

~117 PAGES MON Final

 

(1.909x) of THE GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL.3 WEEKEND THREAD

~109 PAGES MON Final

 

(0.566x) of A2 WEEKEND THREAD

~100 PAGES MON Final

 

(2.320x) of ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA - WEEKEND THREAD

~139 PAGES MON Final

 

COMPS AVG: 116 Pages Monday Final 

 

Thanks @TheFlatLannister for the format lol

 

I’m nominating you for post of the year

Spoiler

Unless these stats are fake, then…