Joyous Legion

Every collar counts, but more dollars count more 😛 I think it’s pretty reasonable to keep in mind when the Canada impact is relatively large vs when it’s relatively small (like now).

The fact that misleadingly low predictions make it easy to get “exceeds expectations” PR does not in any way justify paying attention to misleadingly low predictions from an actual accuracy and forecasting perspective though.

I agree with Nash that the 30M 3day is a little underwhelming after sales+good reception, and Pizza is having another good hold… But Krissykin is undeniably right that far more people care about scream than Pizza.

Like 21-22 for NWH, still great. 5.5 seemed a little too good to be true.

Peacemaker has lost the edge that defined him in TSS. I’d rather watch 8 eps about Vigilante — although I guess as soon as he became a title character he’d have suddenly have some dumb arc about the morality of killing 🙄 I do like most of the supporting cast though, I’ll probably watch it to the end.

Overall weekend rank (manually excluding sniper nonsense): Wknd1 2nd Wknd2 9th Wknd3 6th Wknd4 5th Wknd5 Looks like 5th or 6th Wknd6 maybe 15th ish? (Using 13M est) MCU wknd rank: Wknd1 2nd Wknd2 5th Wknd3 4th Wknd4 3rd Wknd5 Looks like good chance of 2nd Wknd6 very likely 2nd Curious if it can take any 1sts. BP is a formidable foe indeed.

773.5 or so needed to match TROS true FSS legs, think we might get there after all. Legging out quite well in the end even if various holiday timings, omicron, closures etc made the first few weeks a lil bumpy.

Missing IM3. 2nd biggest OW behind only avengers, only solo to get top 5 WW.

Fucking banging. If this sticks (and I'm aware that 5.3 actual or whatever is well withing the range of reasons for an est at this time of night) then Sixth Sense is in play after all

Quoting over here, seems like a solid chance to take out Avengers. Sense on the very top end of bullishness (like 5.4 *4.24 (+80 -20) does the trick — this is not at all where expectation should be to be clear)

Those are full OD, not true fri. Unless you’re just working with much more bullish sat/sun than me.

So 11-11.5 true, pretty much as expected, maybe 35/39ish

Full DOM will be a bit worse but I’d be quite happy with -40, so looking good. 3day IM should be ~4.15, so 5M would take us comfortably above 20M (and really close to my derby 20.55, though I won’t complain if it goes higher) 😛

Dude, your “maximums” are clearly not such. A number that keeps going up and up throughout a run is not a maximum in any reasonable meaning of the word. I appreciate the time to go through market by market, BUT — the lack of self reflection after almost every single number you’ve put out in this thread gets called too low at the time, you disagree, and then it in fact proves to be low is staggering.

1.75 is locked. Last milestone would be titanic 1st run but probably gonna settle in low 1.8s.

How's Spidey looking week over week?

Are th unusually impacted in can because of curfews or something? Less than half of spider is a huge gap from USA where it did like +70% of Spidey or something

Movie is too great for any negativity to fester.

Spare a stormbreaker for those in need? 🥺

One of these sounds kinda fun, but the other sounds like it could be a hassle. Don’t think I’ll reach for Mjolnir just yet 🤔

80.9 cume, 6.1 week/1.6 weekdays. Endgame is cooked, I guess it falls just short of Avatar depending on how harsh this upcoming drop is.

I thought you were specifically talking about nostalgia cameos from other franchises, which pretty obviously aren’t going to happen in movies without a multiverse component. If all you mean is other mcu proper characters showing up, I mean, yeah, you’re gonna have 20 years of that. Audiences like connective stuff like that, it’s pretty much the big advantage of the cinematic universe model at all.

Studio estimates are worse than useless imo — they seek to set low “expectations” to “beat” rather than inform what’s likely in reality. An infamous recent example being Sony lowballing NWH by 130M! If a studio felt like setting their number at 40% of what’s reasonable, you could be +75% it and still way low in my book. I have read the full writeup, but I think the past year or so shows that sales should be weighted really heavily. This reminds me of a couple other recent OWs where it was abundantly clear from the data in this thread (and historical/genre/reception/etc considerations on the internal multi) that a movie was going to open way higher (or lower) than the range at some other places, which I can only assume means that nonsales based models were dragging the average in the wrong direction.

Starting from NWH we have: NWH (multiversal cameo fest) DS2 (multiversal cameo fest) Thor (no) BP2 (no) Marvels (no) Gotg3 (no) quantumania (maybe?) blade (no) fantastic four (maybe?) cap 4 (no) dp3 (maybe?) It’s literally just two in a row

Yeah those seem like weird choices if you’re looking for attendance. I guess it’s more symbolic than actually $$ related either way though.