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Legion Again

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    THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    I didn’t need or want anything explained.

     

    I made an observation that people were reacting as if the new batch of films had underperformed, when it doesn’t look like they’re going to (and we don’t even have opening day numbers yet). 

    And I pointed out that whether a film underperforms and people react as such has nothing to do with official tracking.  If Jat’s early numbers stick, it will be an underperformance in the eyes of many, even if you don’t agree.

    THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Eternal Legion

    9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    Fixed

    That’s not fixing it, it’s breaking it! Before your edit it served as an accurate explanation to your implied question — “why do people seem sad with these (potential) numbers.” The version you changed it to no longer functions to explain that which you seemed to want explained!  
     

    9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    You might think it’s not worth caring about, but it’s the only measurement we’ve got to see if a film has met industry expectations or not. 

    “It’s the only measure of X” is kind of meaningless when it’s still a weak measure of X and there isn’t much reason to care about X in the first place.  

     

     

    9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    Personal predictions aside. The industry tracking is notable at least in one way, because obviously it’s how the trades and media will react to the final numbers. After all, they’re the ones who influence the reception of a films performance. 

    Yeah, this part is true. If you want to predict the tone of hwr articles or whatever, comparing to the “industry tracking” is very useful. But most people on here don’t care that much if a performance they think was underwhelming gets written up as “beats (lowballed) expectations” in some magazine or not.

    • Like 3

    THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    $3m and $6.25m true Wednesdays would be decent and still secure $20m and $40m 5 days. Both on the high end of tracking. 
     

    From some reactions already, you’d think this was the Eternals weekend thread again, but it doesn’t look like any of these are missing their tracking. 

    People don’t care about official tracking because official tracking isn’t worth caring about. I feel like I have to say this in every single weekend thread when things look like they might go low. 

    • Like 2

    THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Can you extrapolate from 7m. I am expecting a big drop to 4m or so tomorrow. I dont see how it makes 31m from that. However I hope you are right. 45m over 5 days would be great for Encanto as would 25m. 

     

    BTW those are not extrapolations but measured guess. Gucci for all you know will just do 3m 🙂 its release is small. Encanto could go even lower. Let us hope deadline provides an update soon. 

    Just looked at FSS/true wed for coco and moana, around 4.7x and 4.4x. TGD 4.6x, F1 4.4x, WIR2 is 3.9x but the only sequel. If you need a Th to fill in the gap, would be 5.5ish. Your 4 from 7 wed would be waaaaay outside historical norms.

    • Thanks 1

    THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    How would true wednesday grosses at Encanto ~7m and Gucci ~ 4m look? I am guessing that bad 😞

     

    FYI these are my guesses. I love the data @katnisscinnaplex provided on show counts. That definitely helps with extrapolation. Gucci release is very small. Encanto is facing huge uphill tasks of convincing family audience to come into theaters instead of waiting a month to watch it on D+. I doubt even Sing 2 will able to pull that. We need to be at much better shape with COVID case count before family movies BO recover. 

     

    I am thinking Encanto will gross closer to tracking than my expectations. So will Gucci as well. 

    Pretty fine actually. For Encanto that looks like 31ish 3day 45ish 5day, not spectacular but not a collapse, would leg over 100 for sure.    
     

    For Gucci maybe 17 3day 25 5day, still well higher than what I expected last week and way past other 2021 adult drama types.

    • Like 1
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