Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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Here’s the club we’re talking about, for visibility:
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Legs will be inflated by holding back T&A+covid, 290*3.25 let’s getterdun
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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I was thinking that for regional comps, we may perhaps just ignore first day & see how it compares with other films in daily pace.
I believe 2nd day may still have some spillover, from tomorrow I guess it will be calmed down enough to start judging daily pace. I suppose it gotta mantain like 2.5-3x daily pace of Eternals, BW, etc.
23 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:Good news folks — we ended up with a better comp than we were expecting to have
Not to give too much extra work for people who are already doing much more than me, but I think a useful stat to incorporate for this one after things settle down in a few days and we switch to T- is probably the rate extrapolated T-. That is to say, if future tickets are same ratio of endgame’s future tickets as the last day (or 2, or 3) have been, how will it comp with endgame final.
I think D3 will also be spillover. After that I guess we can look at rate extrapolated from 2021 mcu but rate extrapolated Endgame and TROS seem more valuable from people who have the historical data to do it.
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23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Taking in the new data we've gotten today, here is what I think of NWH (using the assumption it has WOM/reception at least on par with HC and FFH)....
The Rise of Skywalker OW = Done
Age of Ultron OW = Done
Avenger's OW = Done
The Last Jedi OW = Done
The Force Awakens OW = 95%
Infinity War OW = 85%
$275M OW = 70%
$300M OW = 50%
$325M OW = 30%
Endgame OW = 15%
Okay, okay, time to pump the breaks 🤣
… and join my club — IW OW should get us there, cmon 👀
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Ah, the Brazil thread is popping again. Now we just gotta get @pepsa and @Fullbuster in here for the OW
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What is a decent OW for WSS anyway. BOP has 14-22. It’s 21 on HSX. It’s priced around 16 for FML.
I guess anything above Gucci seems okay to me, but in the “okay given that my expectations have been in the basement” way rather than “this is a 100M film from a revered director and doing actual solid numbers ina vacuum” way.
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16 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 530PM - November 30, 2021
31 show times, 2039 tickets sold
Comparisons to Final Preview NumbersEndgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold out
Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets soldThe Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold
What in the fucking hell is going on in this theater. These are like 40M final comps
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30M previews is essentially impossibly low even for worst case
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I swear to god if the comps are thrown off by fucking NFTs I will… [redacted to avoid warning] Adam Aron
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Quote
“The traffic we had to our web site and mobile app last night were the highest that AMC has ever seen.”
When asked if No Way Home would be the chain’s highest-grossing release, Aron said the title is currently locked in a battle with the 2018 Marvel Studios’ release Avengers: Endgame, a title that grossed nearly $2.8 billion in ticket sales, including $858 million domestically.
“It’s really close,” he said. “The point is, [No Way Home] is a really big movie. It’s going to be a really big movie. And we sold a tremendous number of tickets.”
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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:
I changed my lowest IM to 5.75 but yes a sub IW preview number is still possible. I believe Porthos comps T-17 for both TROS and EG have it right at $39-40M. We will see. I will rectify all the numbers by the 13th lol
T-17 for TROS is comping vs like 5 weeks of cumulative sales, it’ll pop way over in tonight’s report 😛
Also I just noticed those nums I had above would make it the 2nd movie (after endgame) to hit 200 off 2 days. Would probably also claim 2nd fastest to:
250
300
350
After which it might start falling behind TFA
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15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
Encanto demo from the weekend finally posted by Deadline - most amazing skew since what, Black Panther, for a blockbuster?
"Of those who showed up for Encanto, they love it, which will help its buzz, with the pic’s PostTrak scores being 88% positive, 4 1/2 stars, and a 70% recommend for the general crowd with kids under 12 giving it 93% positive, and also 70% recommend. Encanto played best in the West and Southwest and saw a huge Latino and Hispanic turnout of 59%, with 19% Caucasian, 10% Black, 8% Asian, and 5% other. Suburban markets also posted good sales as is typical for a Disney release. Of those showing up 33% were women over 25 (who gave Encanto its best grade at 96%), 29% women under 25, 22% men over 25 and 15% men under 25. Forty percent of the audience came because it was a Disney animated title."
Holy smokes, the non Hispanic gross was like 16M
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21 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
I’m still being cautious (relatively) for the moment. Looking at my number before previews locked ($189.5M) I would probably bump that up about $40M right now.
If you’re at 230, and you still don’t see IM below 6, that is sub IW previews?
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9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
So at this juncture, what would be (in your estimation) the absolute floor for NWH OW? Like, if it gets Eternals or worse critics reaction and a C Cinemascore.
Looking at all the numbers, I’m having difficulty seeing it below AOU OW even if the film is shit.
When reviews leak that there’s no T&A, everyone will cancel tickets+ sue for emotional damage, several billion dollar loss to become by far the least profitable movie in human history
Spoiler35 50 45 30 160 with truly toxic WOM
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The tele predict is immortalized via Porthos quote on page 1 and the OD will beat its OW.
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On 11/12/2021 at 6:26 PM, Eternal Legion said:
USERNAME PREVIEWS TRUE FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY TOTAL Legion 36M 60M 64.8M 55.08M 215.88M Nothing is binding for two weeks, but I guess an updated look at where my head is at (I know previews are locked for contest purposes, but I’m going to keep updating that field to give a cleaner picture for the full weekend):
USERNAME PREVIEWS TRUE FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY TOTAL Legion 48M 75M 81M 69.69M 273.69M
I truly didn’t realize what these were going to sum to until I did the sum at the very end. But it is what it is I guess 🤷♂️
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By the way I think that’s 33 submissions+one header row rather than 34 submission 😛
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18 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:
Who predicted 15M?! That has to be a joke guess right?
I think it was Tele before we got into a zoomer vs boomer kerfluffle (point: zoomers) and they are now evidently deleted.
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17 minutes ago, Cap said:
This is why you all need to give me exact numbers when December 13 rolls around 😘😘😘
I think you misread — I am sad I don’t get to coinflip. I will make sure my Fri, sat, sun, and ow are exactly matched to pre-existing entries to maximize my chances 😘
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Some random stats ‘cause I can:
Mean — 29.7M
standard deviation — 7.57M
2 sigma range — 44.9M
geomean — 28.7M
geometric SD factor — 1.3225
geometric 2 sigma range — 16.4M to 50.2M
geo is really more apt for this context imo, and we probably won’t breach the 2 sigma ceiling. But if we end up 1-2 sigma (38-50.2) that still implies some likely systematic issues.
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6 minutes ago, Cap said:
36,000,000 36,000,000
Would have been fun to go down to coinflip, but alas
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
[60.88m]
Stop. The. Count.
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23 minutes ago, anti-Pedantic said:
Avenger: EG came out 26 April 2019 and John Wick 3 on 9th May and it survived and delivered enough.
maybe, History will kind of repeat itself.
Releasing day 15 is a lot friendlier than day 5
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I remember a few people started giving pace extrapolated for SC (compared to BW) and it seemed very sensible. A more involved calculation to be sure though.