Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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I feel like my understanding of TC vs PTA vs gross dynamics is one of the areas that I’ve grown the most since, say, 2019. There is a lot of intricate stuff going on when you drill down into it which is hidden from public view. For example, with dune this weekend:
1) the locations that get dropped completely (1+ showings -> 0) are, on average, smaller theaters and ones where dune was performing worse for them, so they have lower pta than the National avg. Dropping those theaters, in isolation, will drive the PTA up because the denominator is more impacted than the numerator. Furthermore, some of their business actually flows to the holdovers locations, driving up their occupancy somewhat and further increasing atp among that subset of locs.
2) However, a large chunk* of screen loss on any given weekend is driven by the locations that keep playing it, not the ones that drop it! If half of your theaters go from avg 1.2 screens to 0, and the other half go from 2.5 to 1, then 55% of your screen loss came from the kept theaters. So that drives the PTA at holdover locs down… but those denominator and substitution effects drive PSA on the holdover screens up.
3) Generally speaking, if you held screens constant, PSA trends down over time because you’re exhausting the interested consumer base.4) Calendar stuff like school and work holidays also plays a role.
*Actually, @katnisscinnaplex may be able to comment qualitatively on how much screen loss is coming from dropped locs vs holdovers locs.
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Yeah holdover competition will be truly dire that weekend. Capacity will be fine, but I think the runtime hurts occupancy.
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Just now, John Marston said:
Red Letter Media’s review is trending so Ghostbusters might drop over 50%
RLM’s opinions have very small impact on the real world.
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45 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Couldn't decide if talking about real life events constituted spoilers
The iceberg sinks the titanic.
Hopefully I can avoid getting the end of that new Nolan movie spoiled though.
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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:
The original was 2:33 min so just 3 minutes longer which is probably the credits because they're so much longer now.
1 hour ago, filmlover said:As @TalismanRing just said that's about as long as the original and this one is supposed to be more faithful to the stage musical than the 1961 movie was. You're not getting a short and sweet 90 minute movie when adapting West Side Story to the screen.
I don’t know anything about plays or old movies about plays 😛
If it’s gotta be 150+ then it’s gotta be 150+, but I think that docks my estimate of the performance by like 10-20% from the already low levels I was thinking when I believed it would be shorter.
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Even WSS is 156 mins????
Somebody needs to graph avg runtime of big budget movies by quarter, I bet 2021 Q4 will stick out like a sore thumb.
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25 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:
And complaining about this kind of stuff means you have trans blood on your hands whether you like it or not.
Yo, wt actual f? This is not brutal honesty, this is insane hyperbole
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2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:
Does he even know that this guy who made The Last Duel also made the thematically similar Thelma & Louise(which is on like every shortlist for greatest "feminist/men are terrible" movie ever made) 30 years before he could become a reactionary shitposter on twitter?
This is your notification that Thelma & Louise is officially Cancelled™️ on the basis of being a Tool of the Patriarchy™️. If only they had had the wisdom to hire a director of the right gender, sad stuff
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Trades lowballing? Well I nevah.
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2 hours ago, Menor said:
RT score doesn't matter for shows to me. Critics only got the first two episodes anyway.
I read a review of the first two episodes that left me absolutely in stitches based on some overarching plot details I'm aware of that they were oblivious too. I was like "this entire take will be obsolete once you watch another ep or two"
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“Battle of Taiwan” 10B here we come
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It’s tricky to talk about what is dominating the market because you have both # of films and size distribution of those films. Personally I feel that a market where there are like 20 locals with avg gross 20lc (max 50) and 100 imports with avg gross 6lc (max 18) would be more “dominated by locals.” But if you just look at market share it would say 60% import.
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I think “agenda” is too loaded and not quite the right word anyway. But in the period between critic and audience scores, it is legit useful (for BO purposes) to assess how much the critic aggregates — which come from a bunch of real humans who are of course entitled to their own opinions and proclivities yadda yadda — might be influenced by kind of niche culture war factors which won’t extend to the GA vs more direct movie quality factors.
Once audience scores come out the critic reception is basically useless for BO and I don’t see much reason to care either way (which is another reason why I don’t want to give the whole topic more weight than it really needs).
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2 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:
Well yes, this is just more me being on my soapbox, but from a modding perspective, the big issue is that it almost always leads to toxic infighting. There's often a contingent of people arguing about whether critics "get it right" regardless of reviews, you have people trying to troll certain fans when a hyped film earns bad reviews by saying it's gonna be a megabomb, when nine times out of nine the film ends up doing okay financially, or edgelords complaining that a film only got those reviews because it's "woke". This usually leads to endless pages of arguments that largely go nowhere and just lead to everybody miserable and nothing constructive in the end. I've been on the block here long enough to know these patterns are destined to happen. Might as well nip it in the bud it blooms.
Yeah, I mean there is a lot of truth here, which is why I haven’t been complaining that hard about the aggressive modding on the topic. My personal preference would be to warn/ban the people getting toxic about it when they do rather than banning the entire topic before it’s devolved but I won’t get too heated about it.
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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Yeah we saw how many seats local fills outside of the 90 days of CNY, Golden week and summer blackout.
This is really the key. Sure the 5B hits are fun. A few megamonsters a year with plenty medium-medium small is a healthy market. A few megamonsters+rest small-tiny is not.
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I also feel like there’s a lot of strawmanning and assuming the worst in there, but I won’t continue this publicly if I’m not supposed to be 👍
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Man that is long. On the one hand thanks for engaging, on the other hand it is a bit overwhelming 😅
I will try to have some more detailed constructive thoughts later, but to be very brief:
A lot of this sounds more like reasons (understandable reasons!) for your personal stance in the discussion rather than reasons why the discussion needs to be officially disallowed — especially before any real bad behavior has occurred.
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I knew it was coming out, but I’m not even into movies
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8 minutes ago, YourMother said:
O/U $50m five day for Encanto? I need some good news.
Yes, O/U 50
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20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
What's up with these? These are some ridiculous numbers.
If they follow the normal trend here, would be equivalent of $40m+ Thu.
I guess Mormons just love to go to the theaters on Thanksgiving 😛
Safe to say it will not follow normal trend, but still probably gonna be a huge mega overindex. I am skeptical of bugs as an explanation because the other days looks fairly within reason, but special bookings quite possibly?
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13 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:
Of course it will, not disputing that
In the long run though, whats more important, box office or cultural relevancy and staying power? There are plenty of box office bombs from years past that are now classics or at the very least people still like and watch, the most obvious examples being Bladerunner and The Thing. Office Space is another. Dredd is a recent one. This is far more important to a film than its initial success IMO. There's plenty of films that have made a lot of money that people don't care for or have disappeared from the cultural consciousness. If James Cameron wasn't making 15 sequels, I would've firmly put Avatar in that category already despite its months long initial zeitgeist.
Ahh, okay, perhaps I misunderstood you. I don’t really have an opinion on what is more subjectively important. I was just saying that Last Man Standing’s point (that it’s lack of audience willingness to pay for these movies that will prevent more from being made, moreso than a top down studio decision) remains true even if it’s well regarded by audiences in 2035 or whatnot.
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12 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:
It is obvious that critics have agendas sometimes, but that whole conversation is so intertwined with some toxic elements that it’s hard to have a reasonable back and forth about it (and the mods don’t seem inclined to let people try).
Like I said 😛
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30 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:
I hate to admit this, but after watching Afterlife and reading some of these reviews compared to the previous movie...maybe the trolls were right in 2016 about critics having an agenda.
It is obvious that critics have agendas sometimes, but that whole conversation is so intertwined with some toxic elements that it’s hard to have a reasonable back and forth about it (and the mods don’t seem inclined to let people try).
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On 11/21/2021 at 12:06 PM, Ozymandias said:
The Last Duel and Soho, yes. I think Duel especially is gonna do very well and catch on over the coming months and years on streaming/VOD, its that type of movie.
If so, it will still be a massive money loser because it was rejected by audiences at the box office.
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Very small samples right now, but hey:
Encanto 93% verified (bit low if it sticks)
Gucci 91% (strong if it sticks)