Legion Again

Delay this so we can beat titanic

Finally get to refer to an MCU movie as an unappreciated masterpiece

$200,000M OW if you sell one ticket to Elon musk after increasing ATP a bit

Endgame is like 400 with inflation, slash the runtime to something like Venom and you’d be past 600M EZ

Well, Endgame did 160M with a longer runtime, less than 100% screenshare, and lower ticket prices. So the theoretical cap, for whatever that is worth, has to be north of 200M. Considering the actual circumstances I think that becoming the first post-pandemic 100M opener on OD itself is a great stretch goal that is within reality but I would be ecstatic to hit.

When I first got out of the theater, I was concerned that I might be getting whammies by recency bias and have to bring it down to median or so a bit later. Instead I’m beginning to suspect it will move up a place or two on rewatch.

Yeah, I mean, the conditional clause in my final sentence is pretty key. I would not be shocked with 4.5*10 or whatever either.

Okay but seriously, is 6.5*11 outlandish? Not really. I would not say so. If the marketing clicks with the GA it should really outperform most of the sort of releases we have to use as comps.

Busters opening over Eternals 100%

NTTD looks to displace SC’s record for highest 5th weekend, but may fall just short with actuals: OW — Venom LTBC 90M 2nd wknd — SC 34.7M 3rd — SC 21.7M 4th — SC 13M 5th — SC 6.1M 6th — FG 5.1M (SC has now dropped below FG’s weekends) 7th — FG 4.1M 8th — FG 2.26M 9th — Croods2 1.8M 10th — Croods2 1.8M 11th — Croods2 1.7M 12th — Croods 2 2.1M 13th — Croods 2 1.7M Could be competitive with FG for the 6th weekend record as well given complete lack of competition. Venom and/or Bond could make a play at 8th if they hold well but I expect ghostbusters+turkey releases to do some damage.

Does this poster represent only 4 of the villains or am I missing lizard somewhere?

Ultron 2: eternal boogaloo

A subterranean bar to clear given the only watchable thing since T2 was the Sarah Connor Chronicles. Wish we could get a continuation but the actor ages would be a problem

Not so dire then. Interesting. Optimistic case could go to like 180

5 years of inflation to the rescue 👀

Too bad I can’t make a club, but going on the record for Eternals 2 over 1B

Venom is obviously correct here, how is this argument even happening 😆 1B close would translate to mid 600s DOM in terms of boost. You can escape that by postulating that NWH will have a much higher max/DOM ratio than normal for an mcu mega hit but you need to make some kind of affirmative argument for why that would be.

Dune sat bump was pretty good. Bond little meh sure but not too bad.

I am mostly joking, Gucci Clifford resident evil and even kind Richard should all be ahead. But the month looks bleak, NWH ps are the most exciting thing left in it I would say

NWH will rank 4th for Nov sales 😉

Wom has been worse than I thought with that B. Pretty baffling.

The mcu has never had a film before where they had the rights to easily make a sequel but it wasn’t an outright financial success, so to some extent both “sides” are talking out of their ass a bit. But if you try to analyze an mcu entry as though it was a standalone first movie… well, I think you’ll end up baking in some assumptions that are way off base.

Well now this is just ignorant

I think the DOM boost vs FFH will be roughly matched in old OS markets but not as high in newer OS markets, so overall less OS-C. Maybe 600+600 WW-C (I know I’m in the club right now, but just barely, rounding a little here). China sure, 300 maybe, been a very weird year for Hollywood there and mcu especially but GvK and F9 did fine and I expect venom2 will as well. Lack of MCU releases could plausibly help, or maybe hurt, real wildcard market right now.

They should have the trailer to attach to Ghostbusters, and I assume tickets will come along with it but it’s not assured. Presales runs have generally been shorter during the pandemic here, they could wait until like the last week of nov.