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Legion Again

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    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by WandaLegion

    27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    Remove 8M off it I will still take it as a good result considering Hollywood trades were expecting $25-30M 5 days just a few days back.

    I try not to anchor to HW trades either, they run a little wild in the other direction 🤣

     

    But yeah even a 40M debut would have been pretty good, the previous pandemic record 5-day cume was presumably WW84 with half that. 

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    Here's a case. COVID outside China mostly become a news in Mar 13-15 weekend. Would you prefer this film releasing on Mar 6 2020 and getting 10 days of run in most market and delayed release in China in August 2020 or July 2021 release.

    From a “when do I personally get to see it” perspective, definitely March 2020. But from a “want big BO numbers” perspective, def July 21.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

    Actually I am little bit disappointed with <50m for 5 days. Obviously this is the first 20m, 30m opener since pandemic begin but I was so hyped for 50m 5 days since there are multiple predictions here that peg that number at >50m.  Seeing the movie achieving lesser is just not satisfying enough.  

    As the original conductor of the 50M train (I called for it back in February) I consider this an absolute win. Especially with LA delaying their 50%. It’s a very very very strong result, try not to anchor to the higher end of BOT chatter which can run a little wild.

    • Like 6

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    MTC1 will drop hard tomorrow as many theatres go offline for weekdays. Only plus point will be LA county will start to allow 50% occupancy. Still I expect it to drop 70% while MTC2 will hold much better. But overall drop wont be that good as you expect. 

    I suspect those MTC1s are not too important to gross. Sun-Mon drops have been pretty normal looking across the market for the last many Mondays.

    • Like 1

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Menor said:

    Yeah, you're right there. Not many options for May. I think the May numbers will really undersell what BO potential is actually there at that time in the market, as unless you're a horror person it'll be very barren. Makes the Black Widow move even more annoying. 

    May will probably be at like 70% of “normal” in terms of potential, but do like 20% of normal because no product. Oh well.

    • Like 1

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    They wont play the movie losing money.

    Sure, agree with that. But they will play the movie making less money than they’d like.

     

    5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    AMC/Cinemark will survive with studios that play ball.

    Like I said at the top of this page, don’t really see how. Seems like wishful thinking.


    I do agree that not working out a deal would be a mutual loss, which is why I fully expect a deal will work beworked out. 

    • Like 2

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by WandaLegion

    16 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

    That right there is my major problem. The idea that a greedy company that is clearly not starved for money is justified in bullying exhibitors, which despite being in it for the money, is struggling to get by and is the only reason said greedy company is popular in the first place, just because they make popular movies people like...that does not bother you? You really don't think they should compromise, throw a bone, or be a touch nicer? You don't think this is a major problem with our broken and toxic capitalist system? You really don't think this is an issue, even a little bit?

    And I guess this is the other area of disagreement. No, I don’t really. I don’t see much reason to root for the less powerful corporations just because they’re less powerful. If the more powerful one is contributing more to my consumer satisfaction, I’ll happily keep rooting for them (and this applies to studio vs studio or studio vs exhibitor sentiment). There’s a sort of American notion of “the virtue of the underdog” that doesn’t really connect with me emotionally.   
     

    If exhibitors had a bunch of leverage over Disney who was struggling, they would “bully” Disney. If WB had a bunch of leverage over theaters they’d “bully” theaters, and if they had a bunch of leverage over Disney they’d “bully” Disney. I’m pretty much fine with all of that, it’s part of a broader system that is imperfect but which has delivered me a pretty high quality of life overall and to which I know no clearly superior alternative.

    • Like 1

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by WandaLegion

    10 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

    However, the big issue here is the idea you are saying here that theaters should just put up with awful deals and demands from a major company with more money than God. The idea that Disney, one of the biggest media companies in history with hundreds, if not thousands of revenue sources, not only has to make deals for one revenue source that strongly favors them, but you encourage and believe the opposing team should just go with it?

    Okay, I think this might be where we’ve been talking past each other. I’m not saying, and do not believe, that theaters “should” do that in some kind of moral sense, like “I like Disney more than I like AMC and for that reason AMC should just roll over.”   
     

    I’m saying that they “should” agree to Disney’s demands in a strategic sense, because of where the relative leverage is. But I don’t expect and wouldn’t advocate for theaters to accept anything that's one cent more generous to Disney than circumstances force them into.

    • Like 1

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Menor said:

    I agree with most of this but I would say that plenty of people enjoy the theater experience, and much of that is created by chain theaters since indies are a pretty small component. 

    Sure, I wouldn’t say that they have no value. I enjoy Thursday night IMAX at the local Cinemark and would be sad if they all just up and vanished. I would prefer and fully expect mutually beneficially resolution to this, which is exactly what you “should” get when different self-interested entities interact.
     

    But movies without theaters are still good. I liked Palm Springs. I loved The Incredibles, never seen in it a theater, probably never will. And on and on.   
     

    Theaters without movies... not much of a value proposition.   
     

    So it’s just a fundamentally asymmetrical situation 🤷‍♂️

    • Like 1

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

    Well then you should find what you said in the Raya thread to be very ridiculous

    Uhhh... no? I honestly don’t see what you’re trying to get at here — that quote of mine from the Raya thread is very in line with my point here. 
     

    All studios are basically being driven by a combo of tradition, ego, and maximizing their own profit. All exhibitors, same thing applies. Trying to act like some corporations are being “nice” or being “mean” or that some are “good guys” and some are “bad guys” is just silly/naive (to be clear, I’m not fully agreeing with Fullbuster here). 
     

    But being aware of that corporate reality doesn’t mean consumers can’t like some corporations more than others. Disney actually creates products that a huge swath of people enjoy. So do WB, Uni, Sony, etc.

     

    Cinemark, AMC,... not so much. So I think it’s pretty easy to see why people would feel more affinity for studios than chains, without needing a nonsensical moralizing component in either direction.

    • Like 3

    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

    Disney pivoting completely to streaming won't cause theaters to collapse though

    If you look at the admits numbers the nonDis are able to pull the last decade, compared to theatrical profit margins, I have a hard time seeing how they wouldn’t. I mean, I guess to be clear I should say that I don’t mean “collapse” to like, 0 locations — but serious serious contraction where at least one MTC goes under.  

     

    9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

    And Disney becoming Netflix 2.0 just due to theaters playing hardball is extremely unlikely too.

    Oh, I totally agree. Because theaters need to come to an understanding with them about maintaining a future for Dis in theatrical, and so they will.

     

    9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

    Disney's ecosystem needs theaters. 

    Disney’s present ecosystem needs theaters, but in the medium-long run it seems like they’ll only want theaters.

    • Like 4
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