Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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19 hours ago, WandaLegion said:
If today PS are ~OD level, that’s roughly 25% up from Fri. Expecting mild PSm drop, similar PWP share, 5-15% gross increase for 12-13 day.
If it’s hitting ~12.5, walkups were normal.
As for Sun, even BvS was just -33%. I think 8.3-8.7 is a pretty good expectation.
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6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:
if I think a studio is sending mixed signals, why can't i call it out on this forum and share what my peers feel? Why do you need to be overly defensive?
You can “call it out” on this forum, but when we say why that doesn’t make much sense it’s not being being “overly defensive” and the way you keep describing it as such is kind of condescending.
I get that it’s frustrating to have it be July instead of May for countries that are recovered. Personally, I wish they had stuck to May (or June). I get that it’s frustrating to have it be hybrid for countries that are mostly recovered and/or where piracy is a big thing. Personally, I wish it was nonhybrid.
But it just doesn’t make sense to read any information about quality into a move that is clearly being driven by cautionness over global pandemic conditions and continued DTC experimentation.
Maybe the movie will be received poorly. That’s totally possible, frankly 2 of the last 3 MCU films were pretty eh, and the prequel nature is not the most exciting. But it’s no more likely to be bad than it was when it was planned for May 2020, all of the delays are adequately explained by external factors.
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12 minutes ago, Menor said:
I think @WandaLegion said something like 9.5*5.2 for the 5-day on Monday or Tuesday, so props because that looks like it will be almost exactly on the dot.
On 3/29/2021 at 2:26 PM, WandaLegion said:Before I think I was in on like a 13*4.6ish kind of scenario. Now if it hits I expect more along the line of 11*5.5 (but actually eyeballing more along the lines of 9.5*5.2)
Ah, lol 😆
Thanks for the reminder.
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I think there’s a common attitude of “this movie is never really coming out” and hype will slowly recover people, realize “no, really, actually, it’s in theaters two weeks.”
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35 minutes ago, a2k said:
18 on sun will give it 225 total after 61 2nd weekend. 2x more the 2nd weekend will give it close to 350 os. very sweet under the circumstances. if it further over-performs os then keeps 500 ww alive no unless dom has bad legs?
My current expectations more like 22 on Sun for 230 cume/65 weekend. China will add maybe 53. OS-C opened markets conservatively perhaps 37, and BR+J maybe 30, for 120 more/350 total. DOM legs are a bit hard to say, low 100s best guess. Probably 450-500 range?
Unclear what new markets it might staggered add in Europe vs going straight PVOD though.
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10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Wanda expect PSm to be lower but is that common for Saturday?
Generally a D2 Sat would see PSm rose from an OD Fri, because OD has high raw PS->lowest PSm of any day of run.
But with a midweek opener, or after the first week, I’d generally expect M-Th PSm>Fri PSm> Sat/Sun PSm.
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15 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:
4195 tickets sold in Denver so far today. Comp says 14.63M.
Is this comping to other GvK days or other Saturdays?
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Eyy, marketing restart is a go. Pretty curious what metrics this will do.
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If today PS are ~OD level, that’s roughly 25% up from Fri. Expecting mild PSm drop, similar PWP share, 5-15% gross increase for 12-13 day.
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10 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:
What is the official reason given for the latest delay for 2 months + the choice to put on D+? Was the reason specifically given? Don't give an answer based on your view as a fan...
Don't need to be so defensive at this stage when we all do not know the quality of the film. Also does not matter what reason / excuse Disney come out with actually, more importantly what is being signalled to audiences with the constant delays?
We have to think about it logically instead being defensive yeah.
I am thinking about it logically, the delay is because of covid. It’s being signaled to the audience that... they were afraid of releasing it with too many territories still having big covid problems. Cmon man.
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1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:
WoM... not that sure will be good.
Disney is known for multiple delays of films which they have no confidence in / suspicious quality. See Artemis Fowl, New Mutants....
I mean, we already know the reason for BWs delays and they aren’t quality related.
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18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
Not surprised that piracy hardly hurt GvK. It mostly affect those which go theater and streaming at the same time or have bad WOM.
RIP Black Widow.
Probably will open a week before streaming and have good WOM, so...
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50+ seems rather tough. Need 33.7 3-day, 12+12.7+9 or something. Over 45 will be in the right ballpark, Fri at 10.5+ should do it.
Though with this Fri won’t be surprised if Sat bounce goes low double digits.
Edit: and 1 minute ago Keyser numbers bring a little more optimism. Basically should hit the 45-55 window.
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Really digging what we’ve seen so far here. Hope it can (somehow) beat the predecessor’s numbers.
I guess this will finally get me to watch Birds of Prey.
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On 3/28/2021 at 1:12 PM, charlie Jatinder said:
I mean unless it do Kong Skull which crashed after weekend, the weekend trend suggest good legs. I mean SAT and SUN are basically par TENET.
CGV pre-sales are 2.9K. Should go for 27K Monday. That's 37% drop from Friday. TENET was 41%.
Tue-Fri 85-90K probably. And then 140k 2nd SAT-SUN, for total of 585K.
From there, will need 38% or better weekly drops for 1M. I think we can expect Korea to give those.
Mon-Fri comes in 110k. Thinking 120 for SS, cume of 555. Would need 34%s for 1M. Possible, might be up in the air for another couple weeks.
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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Definitely the best episode so far.
I remember the director (or writer) saying this connected to at least 3 future MCU properties. I think we saw one today (Black Panther). I’m curious what the other 2 will be. I’ve always assumed Black Widow but who knows.
Can’t wait for the “Power Broker is Doctor Doom!” Theories to start.
The Power Broker is Ralph Boehner.
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9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Probably around 6.7m including PWP.
12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:so $6.7-6.8M actual but its removed now
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So we expect the without PWP numbers were what, ballpark 8.6 D1 and 6 D2? That’s a 30% drop, PS were down roughly 49% so PSm up about 36%.
I think PSm for D3 can be some 50-70% up from OD* with more screenings and fewer capacity issues, would be 10-11.5 sans PWP maybe 11-13 actual.
*That’s 10-25% up from D2. Maybe it can go even higher being a holiday and weekend eve, but there are also some factors working against too much PSm growth — namely, higher PS.
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28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:Spoiler
Barons have jobs and houses too, don’t really see the issue there.
Sam is making promises he doesn't have the power to back up and Sharon calls him out on exactly that. The way she agrees after he’s like “well I’ll try™️“ seems kind of silly, but it seems like there’s more going on with Sharon so hopefully it will make that make sense.
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It’s not actuals (which would be like, $9,587,139 or whatever). We don’t get actuals from WB anymore.
But it’s not just Deadline cobbling some guess together from industry sources either.
It’s an official estimate, could get updated later on to 9.5 or 9.7 or something but I din’t expect they will.
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Reasonable: 9.6-7-13-14-10 (~54)
Or optimistic: 9.6-7-14.5-15.5-11 (~58)
Club is not dead I guess but does need a lot going right (mostly perhaps Sat bump can beat above).
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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
comScore wasn't having anything on TENET and WW84. I didn't checked for any other film after that. I will be getting my access back in some days probably, but unfotunately after this weekend there isnt any real big film releasing soon.
Think MK will overperform. After that is pretty barren until MDW
... unless studios move some stuff up after GvK
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15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
I think less people would be bashing it if Disney actually released more movies during the drought instead of pushing them all back when things will be closer to normal and a hybrid release will be unnecessary.
Yep.
15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:I think WB also doing this July onwards is pretty dumb too though. And most people don't have HBO Max so it's going to be basically like paying $15 dollars for the movie for most people
And yep.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Incredible weekend for this thread and Keyser specifically considering the extra variable of PWPs.