Legion Again

I’m thinking maybe -7% today adds 560k to est, collect a bit from an upward Friday revision and net ~600k overall=4.9% Frozen is a great fit for winter with all the snowy vibes, and I think a decent amount of family holiday viewing will be diverted from TROS to (mainly) Frozen and Jumanji.

I think we’ve seen that smaller entries done right can bolster big entries rather than deflating interest in them. But the spinoffs didn’t really support or lead into the Saga films, and in retrospect that seems like a mistake. Also, I think the way Disney handled the EU was a big mistake. It was gnarled and tangled and self-contradictory in parts, so I think severing it from canon like they did was pretty necessary. But it’s also a rich resource of many different types of stories that have been told in the SW universe and data on which of them worked poorly/alright/great. I think mining them more directly for inspiration and doing loose adaptations (the way CBMs treat their comic canon) would have been — and will be, for Disney SW Phase 2,3, etc — a good idea to appeal to hardcore fans and more casual audience.

WWW imo is pretty simple: 1) They made 3 movies, instead of a trilogy 2) they weren’t able to correctly balance nostalgic elements with fresh elements that appeal to newer markets and demos. Now to be fair, 2) is very tough. But I think there were several unforced errors there since the acquisition. And 1) was a huge, totally unnecessary blunder that seemed like a blunder to many people as early as 2015/16/whenever they made clear that there was no strong overarching vision for the ST.

Pack it up boys, case closed.

Weekend actual being about 5% above estimates should help. And having a roughly 9x multiplier from the pre-Christmas weekend is actually very typical for Disney animated fare. 475-490 or so for me.

And 1.5B Jan 2020 will get you as good a finish as $928M Jan 2010 or $650M Jan 2000.

I just checked, and in fact 1B in Jan 2020 will get you about as good a finish as $630M in Jan 2010, or $360M in Jan 2000.

I’ll just say it. We’re about to enter the 2020s. 1B won’t even guarantee you top 45 WW. It’s no longer a guarantee of a truly notable success anymore, just being among the larger several movies of a certain year. 1.5B is the 1B for the new decade.

I can’t react anymore because I’ve been reduced back to peasant status, but everyone imagine a on your posts.

I think PS are helped by Christmas here and it will flame out with like 75 Egg and an awful PS:USD total ratio with $18 or something. But, ya never know. Maybe they will really like hideous, horny, feline version of the cast and it will do $50 with a 95 egg 🤷‍♂️

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $5,836,911 ($18,195,218) 769,014 (2,450,805) 1,936 55.79% 2 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $2,042,925 ($8,283,371) 267,164 (1,136,724) 993 19.52% 3 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,010,283 ($91,599,397) 136,011 (12,737,527) 855 9.65% 4 Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $930,002 ($2,170,938) 134,659 (315,934) 841 8.89% 5 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $223,564 ($8,072,962) 28,588 (1,066,052) 276 2.13% 6 Jumanji : The Next Level U.S. Dec 11, 2019 $184,579 ($7,368,003) 25,032 (1,025,645) 386 1.76% 7 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $113,467 ($4,076,406) 14,288 (560,808) 163 1.08% Ashfall had a pretty nice weekend trajectory, and is up to 89% Egg. It’ll do nicer over the holiday stretch than I was thinking on OD. CGV PS for F2 are 8418. First day with schools off so not sure exactly how it will play, but thinking 70kish. Cats D-01 215k PS

I mean, most people aren’t huge SW fans, right? They’re casual fans, and that’s the sort of person who might go from “oh a new Star Wars this month, those are fun, guess I’ll go see it with the fam.” to “another Star Wars this month? The last one was kind of a mess and trying to talk to people about it nowadays is awful, let’s just see Jumanji or Frozen for the holidays.”

Yeah, I mean I’m an MCU fanboy but 80% is... pretty ambitious. Also gotta deal with JW3. I think the more reasonable hope is to get a top 5 with Avatar, Spidey, Thor, and then have one of DS2 or Shang-Chi spike over Batman/JW3. Shang-Chi only has a chance if China takes to it very well, which is a big ask.

Well, it’s less than a third of the WW opening record, unclear if that really qualifies as big tbh. Deadline was all “no 2020 movie will have a higher WW open” but I’m thinking 4-5 get there (MCU, WW84, Car Wars, Mulan).

Marvel fans have been given a dozen fanpleasing hits in a row, probably soon to be a dozen and a half. That much goodwill takes more than a single misstep to destroy. I’m pretty confident that when there is finally a seriously disliked MCU movie, the main reaction will be “ 🤷‍♂️, this sucks, but I guess it was bound to happen eventually.” If a 2nd happens in a short timespan, the internet could become a really ugly place.

Actually yes. The #1 movie in history was the culmination of a 4 movie big franchise run by a directing duo who like to subvert expectations for the sake of it. They’re just able to recognize exactly when and how that can be made to work.

Good location for response. I shouldn’t have mentioned Rian in weekend in the first place, too tough for people to leave the topic alone. Speaking of Fanboy Wars, there are no more fanboy wars. For a war you need at least 2 groups of similar enough strength, and nobody is close to MCU. 60% of 2019 top 5, absolute dominance. Prepare for same feat in 2021.

Just sayin’

Pessimistically 9 WW has gotta be on the table, if 8 is.

Hmm, could be 177 or even lower. -4% Sat is pretty unfortunate too.

89+49+40=178, *2.8 would do the trick. I think that’s very very unlikely with the calendar configuration, but 🤷‍♂️

Frozen if it hits 4.9 is up 48.5% from Dis Fri (up less from act Friday I suspect). F1 was +51% with same calendar, so looks pretty normal and even strong to me. Friday was just break benefited.

He did it all to let Knives Out have a stronger hold this weekend. True 12D chess

Rian Johnson is having the last laugh this weekend

SK will probably be same. Maybe 50% drop but from a number that makes it pretty I rrelevant.