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Legion Again

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Everything posted by Legion Again

  1. Legion Again
    BP and Frozen are both better than TDKR, so nice to see that both will beat it OS in addition to WW.
  2. Legion Again
    Wow, really sad to see that Black Panther has only made $2,018 unadjusted. Just benefitting from some really crazy inflation, I guess.
  3. Legion Again
    Not sure this will really happen before BP’s run is essentially over. Also, I wonder if BP can snag the number 2 spot on Tuesday.
  4. Legion Again
    Ahh, I see. Rather annoying that BOM market specific numbers and total international figure are totally desynced like that, but I guess I can see how it would be a bother for them to keep everything updated and in correspondence.
  5. Legion Again
    The 780 is with an outdated japan figure though, right? BOM currently shows 780 with 15.9 from Japan, so the actual figure after this weekend should be 790 and only 10 more needed.
  6. Legion Again
    Well, yeah. Picked it precisely to make a stark comparison, weakest in recent history. Still crazy to me that the same amount of money can be 3rd vs 13th so close to each other.
  7. Legion Again
    It only needs 36M or so from Japan to pass 800, right? Seem quite likely. That would give 2017 11 movies at 800+, clobbering the previous record (2016, with 8). Funny that just 3 years earlier GotG made worldwide top 3 with 773, and in 2017 that would only get you 13th O.O
  8. Legion Again
    Poppins+Wreck-it 2 are literally more likely to do 3x Aquaman than fall below Aquaman.
  9. Legion Again
    This also means it’s locked to pass 2 JLs WW
  10. Legion Again
    That 690-700M range keeps looking more and more like Panther’s final resting point. With these numbers, 95% confidence in 680-705 or so.
  11. Legion Again
    635 and we're talking about challenging TLJ WW.
  12. Legion Again
    BoxOfficePro has Acrimony projected at 17, BoxOfficeMojo at 15.5, but Deadline currently has it at 10-15. I think BP’s chances at number 2 are down in the single digits, but that’s enough to be an exciting outside shot for me at least until we see Friday numbers.
  13. Legion Again
    Starting to wonder of BP can pull a #2 for this weekend. Beating PRU and ICOI looks pretty doable, with the biggest spanner in the works being how high Acrimony opens. If it does snag #2, I believe we will have 2/3 of the films this millennia with at least 7 weeks in the top 2 playing in theaters concurrently
  14. Legion Again
    Yup, looking like Sun, Tues, Sat respectively.
  15. Legion Again
    This is pretty much where I’m at, and it puts 700 back on the table (not favored though, might give it a 35% chance if the next 5 days unfold like this).
  16. Legion Again
    BOOM, great Tuesday number. Over 35% increase is the best Tuesday increase of its run so far, and down a mere 13% week to week.
  17. Legion Again
    Black Panther median Tuesday increase on weeks without a holiday monday is 28.8, which would give 2.34 today, so I’m looking at above 2.35 or so as better than expected and below 2.3 as worse than expected.
  18. Legion Again
    690 is very doable, that last 10M is probably a bridge too far. Off a 10M weekend it would need a 6x 7th weekend multiplier, which is a huge ask. Off a 12M weekend it would only need a 5x multiplier, which is a lot more possible. I think it’ll be around 11M, need a 5.5 multiplier off that weekend, and miss. I guess we we could have a situation where it’s going to make like 698 “naturally” and Disney just leaves it in theaters forever and uses some IW double features to try to drag it over, but they don’t seem to be too concerned about that sort of thing.
  19. Legion Again
    Not Wrath of Han, but no, it won’t. Best Tuesday increase it’s had (+32%) gets it a 2.4 Tues, then best Wednesday drop (-25%) a 1.8 W, then best Thursday increase (8%) a slightly under 2 Thursday for a bit under 6.2 from the remaining weekdays and a Thurs total of about 639.3. Then it would need a 13M weekend (spectacular 24% drop) to pass JW. More realistically we should be at 639 after Thursday, 11-12 weekend gets to 650-651, pass JW next Tuesday or Wednesday.
  20. Legion Again
    BP starting to pull ahead of TDK adjusted in the dailies more decisively now. Hard to see it below 680 for me.
  21. Legion Again
    Just give it to Feige and wait a decade.
  22. Legion Again
    With 17.1M, BP has the 4th best 6th weekend ever, and could drop 30% and still remain in the top 5 weekends. It couldn’t afford to drop much more than that though, with the current 5th best 7th weekend being The Blind Side at 11.91.
  23. Legion Again
    9 days into IW presales. 32 days to go. It’s in third place.
  24. Legion Again
    At least BP is contributing over $200M to March.
  25. Legion Again
    Wow, just getting sales by the 1000 and refreshing every half hour or so could be a big improvement to our Pulse data extraction. In fact, if we’re careful about not double counting tickets from overlapping windows, it should be possible to refresh more frequently and just have access to basically every ticket sold on fandango, right? Or are there sales that don’t appear on pulse?
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