Legion Again
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Everything posted by Legion Again
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Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]
Legion Again replied to Porthos's topic in Numbers and Data
The prophecy marches on -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Always hard to tell how much being an aging franchise with some aging fanbase will weigh on the scale until it happens but I have been thinking like 12-15x fwiw -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
and this is how I learned that the Fall Guy movie people have been talking about was not a years late video game adaptation -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I mean in general a performance is always a bit of movie specifics+background market content, right. The bad news here is that even if you think the background market context is reasonably healthy there are very few movies this years with the specifics to do serious biz -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
That was for 2023 release Dune Here is 2024 release Dune My prediction a few hours ago would be 11*6.73 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Just popping in briefly at the tail end of things here: size adjusted comp from rehpyc (-JW) T-7 to T-2 11.1, 10.8, 10.6, 10.3, 10.6, 10.55 Fairly steady, but I would guess t-1 will be ~10.0 based on how other regions are faring Personally thinking ~ 2+9*8=74 — that IM seems high from fundamentals, but fss sales are solid, so 🤷♂️ Perhaps low PSm’s will resolve the tension Sounds like you guys had some exciting days but from perspective of D1 to T-1 semi checked out guy seems very little has happened 😂 -
It’s true, every word from my keyboard is pure unadulterated facts of the future Anyway from 2012 to 2019 it was was hard to go wrong betting on the MCU, but from 2022 through 2023 it’s more like hard to go wrong betting against the MCU, so… I’m torn on this one. If they all released in an environment of equal franchise health, pretty confident this would be the 2nd biggest post Infinity Saga after NWH, with maybe 250/600/1.3B or whatever. As is, not really feeling confident it can match MoM/BP2 kind of nums. The trailer was eh for me, needed more kick (prolly wolverine), though the title suggests that will be coming. Extreme concerns about quality given heavy TVA involvement. I’ll throw out like 140/350/750 with some room for upside if the product delivers
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Those are at least both female led marvel movies! It’s not crazy to think that one performance might have some useful info for the other. Web and Dune have almost nothing in common 😛 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I would, in general, strongly caution against this sort of reasoning. If movie A does much better than you expected it’s a sign that movie A had more interest than you thought, not that movie B will have more interest than you’d thought! -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Legion Again replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Haven’t been looking closely at Dune and don’t plan to, but being a sequel instead of a first entry is another pretty important variable. Verrrrrrrry loosely from this start thinking like 8-12*6-7.5 for 55-75ish