Mekanos
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Everything posted by Mekanos
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Little Mermaid, Beauty And The Beast, Aladdin and Lion King are sort of the core four Disney renaissance classics. BATB and Lion King will both have cleared a billion easily and Aladdin will get there despite bad initial marketing/publicity and a shitton of competition. Mermaid will surely get there unless the public revolts against these remakes suddenly. -
Incredible hold considering god damn Lion King was playing. Just a little less than a million behind Homecoming's third weekend. Definitely think it can recover and leg it to 400.
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Disney when they have a 600M/1.5B movie that healthily increases over BATB17 BOT posters
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You're right, but people in the thread earlier were hemming and hawing that the internal multi would be worse than Beauty and that would spell doom for its legs. The Sunday hold for Lion King is excellent no matter what.
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And Beauty dropped 23% Sunday. Gonna take a stab and say 3x is looking good.
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So if EG can follow IW's drops it will probably have about 5-6 left in the tank domestically. Can it get enough OS to clear 2.8B?
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Lion King squeaked by AOU opening with 500k lol.
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I don't know, why don't you ask her about it?
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My IMAX is getting it all weekend and after that, which is one of the most popular theaters in the country, so I feel like most are going to get it.
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Ah, big fan of Birth Of A Nation, I see.
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Hobbs/Shaw is getting IMAX so I doubt it.
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I could see Shang breaking out as it serves a still relatively untapped demographic in Hollywood but 450 seems crazy high. I'm thinking around 350.
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I mean... yeah, but there's a reason Hawkeye is getting a miniseries and not a movie lol. I'm not saying it'll bomb or anything, 700 WW is the floor, I just don't know what the draw is for the GA outside of "the original female Avenger." Captain Marvel had the IW teaser, being the first female-led MCU movie, the 90s period piece, Nick Fury, etc. It had a lot going for it. Maybe the first trailer will make it obvious but I remain skeptical of a big breakout hit.
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I just don't know what the hook is for a Widow movie. What makes her as a character stand out amongst the rest of the MCU? She's a badass normal with stun batons. Compared to the rest of the MCU solos, it seems... bland? I assume they're going for a Russian spy flashback sort of thing but that doesn't necessarily lend itself to big spectacle.
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Until we get a sense of Widow's story and scope I don't feel like it can do a billion. Think it's gonna be more of a lowkey action/spy thriller movie. Not sure the Widow character is a big hit with the GA either. My bet is Winter Soldier numbers but we shall see.
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If HC > FFH is in the range of a 25% WW jump that's about what I expect for Strange 2. It would need an OS overperformance to secure the billion.
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Don't think it's going to be easy for DS2, to do that it would have to pull a TWS and basically double the OS of the original. FFH is looking to increase ~25% from the original, I would expect something similar for Strange 2 which puts it at 850.
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Maybe if Spidey 3 gets fasttracked for 2021. I have Strange 2 at Ragnarok numbers and Shang-Chi is a wildcard with China. Shang could honestly be our first 900 million superhero movie.
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The damage done to the brand with Spider-Man 3 and the Amazing movies cannot be understated imo. Spider-Man is finally making the money it should have been making years ago.
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Damn, the MCU will have 9 billion dollar movies after Spidey gets it (3 minus RDJ for those of you counting)... it's probably gonna be a while before we get the 10th. Thor 4 is definitely the best candidate.
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Which will clear a billion first, Aladdin or Spidey?
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I saw that... after managing 20 million against Lion King, it's only gonna make it to 360? What? Geez. Then again this is the guy who said 300 was off the table for Homecoming after the second weekend. How does this guy get paid to write this?
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/07/21/avengers-endgame-avatar-spider-man-far-from-home-jumanji-skyfall-james-bond-star-wars-force-awakens-wolf-warrior-wandering-earth-box-office/#5ce1766af38a Scott...
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Spider-Man held pretty damn well in the face of Lion King.
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I assume once Disney realized they weren't getting 200 they lowballed to 185 to look better when actuals are closer to 190.
