Mekanos

if this drops like R1 did on weekend 2 500m is dead

Ant-Man objectively has a bigger cultural impact than Avatar

This is the boat I'm in. If Avatar 2 was 2 hours long I'd probably be like, yeah sure, I wasn't crazy about the first one but I'd still want to see it. Over 3 hours? Ehhhhhhh... I'm still undecided. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

140 seems very difficult based off of Friday. Would take a shocking good Saturday and I don't think there's a reason to expect that.

I can't imagine Top Gun winning.

Oh sure. I'm just thinking about the investment, these are not cheap movies. 1.5 billion and Disney probably says "go with god, Jim" and writes him a big fat check since that'll probably mean 3/4/5 all make a billion dollars too. Less than that and I can see them getting cold feet, or at least slashing the budget of 4 and 5.

If this comes under 1.5B WW Avater 4/5 are dead in the (way of) water IMO

haven't been on this forum for years but I had to log in to see what the vibe is about these numbers how are the jimbo fans holding up

Managed to remember my password and e-mail after like 5 tries to log in to see what the reactions were to this movie Damn this forum is still laggy as fuck

I had a feeling TROS might implode after the Christmas rush. Curious how this second weekend plays out.

How do you account for this having a worse internal weekend multiplier than TLJ if WOM is better?

tbf AOU only increased in China, it was down everywhere else IIRC.

Phase 3 was a legendary run of quality films and audiences were gobbling it up like it was going out of style. IW blowing the roof off of AOU was a foregone conclusion.

IW had novelty factor and good will from Phase 3. It was the first Avengers movie with the Guardians, Dr. Strange, Black Panther, and Spider-Man, all of which starred in successful and beloved movies. It helps that it was a great movie obviously, but it was always going to do better than AOU with a roster that stacked. AOU was basically a redux of the first Avengers, no new draws to speak of, so interest was lower.

%-wise it's a similar drop to the second installment of the last two trilogies. So I understand framing it that way. And to some extent I agree. That said, I feel like we have to address that the modern blockbuster world is very different from even 15-20 years ago. Sequels in long-running, healthy franchises do not usually drop that much in the 2010s. Like, you can say TFA had the novelty factor/nostalgia to buoy it, but, just to pull an example out of my ass, Furious 7 to F8 had a much healthier drop despite not having the novelty of the Paul Walker situation. The interest was there for the opening for TLJ. Even considering the Christmas holiday on the second weekend, December blockbusters just normally don't drop out like that. A sequel drop that severe in this movie age is very abnormal. IMO, I would say the WOM for TLJ was not bad, just sort of iffy, like, audiences liked it well enough, but they weren't excited about it like they were with TFA, bringing their friends and family to see it again and again. I say this as a TLJ fan. However, I feel like TROS still gets the majority of the blame. This implosion on the weekend along with the Cinemascore doesn't tell me that this is being buried under people not liking TLJ. It is audiences more or less shrugging their shoulders. I can't say what the final legs will be, but I feel pretty confident that if TROS underperforms, it'll be mostly because audiences rejected it and not because of a hangup for TLJ (even if that factors into it somewhat).

...this isn't hitting 180M, is it? EDIT: Jinx!

So why were people getting all in my business when I said 190M was too bullish lol

Interesting point. Blade Runner 2049 is fantastic.

imo there should be a "stale" rating for 40-59%. Fresh is 60-79%, Certified Fresh is 80-100%. But I guess they want it to reflect the reviewers themselves, who mark it Fresh Or Rotten.

Harry Potter 9 with the original cast is the only movie I think could legitimately come into spitting distance of the OW record in the next ten years.

Yeah, I think having a deflated opening means 3x is on the table. No way to know for sure though.

It's always a trip to see other ResetERA posters on this site. There are dozens of us! Also, it's very likely.

No previous movie had ever broken the previous record by 100 million though.

Just gonna reiterate that a movie can be successful and underperform simultaneously.