Djsoke

I wonder how much these advanced screenings will eat into Shazam's OW box office. Aquaman earned $2.9m, and also had 1200 theaters, but only had a single showing versus three for Shazam.

I don't think the trailers did the film justice. I went in with fairly low expectations because I didn't like the trailers but was pleasantly surprised.

Realistically, it doesn't matter. It's just a comparative milestone because both are female-superhero flicks.

It's actually really spread out over several weeks. They started a few weeks ago and will continue until essentially through Easter.

I thought that Jason had gotten some "tethered-ness" from his mother, which is why his relationship with his duplicate was different, and why he had been able to figure it out at the end. Could be wrong though

I think the Fri -> Sat drop is too low. Only a 1.3% drop seems too optimistic

I really enjoyed this movie, and I think Lupita deserves on Oscar for this performance. The only thing which slightly disappointed me was the ending/twist. I had the twist figured out from essentially the opening scene, and then they hinted it so much throughout the film, that I felt like I was being reminded of it, so it completely lost the impact at the reveal. I thought the ending was slightly messy, but the whole film was just so engrossing. I don't think I'll ever forget Lupita's performance.

I assume he means Lego Movie 2, though that's just outside of a month

$55m+ probably It'll be really interesting to see how much of its Friday is made up by previews though.

I see, but I think Halloween probably played a lot closer to A Quiet Place than Us ever was going to. AQP had 90% of ticket sales as day-of. The environment surrounding Us is way too different to realistically achieve a similar number.

I'd say that Halloween 2018 was a much better movie and released for Halloween instead of the middle of summer

What comp are you using that showed 30m+ more for Us?

I go to school in San Antonio and live north of DFW. I've seen a couple of new theaters in both areas, and all of them do exclusively reserved seating. And some of the older theaters have been switching to some type of reserved seating pretty recently. I don't buy that presales showed Us going towards an insane 90m+ opening, but I think the moviegoing experience is continually becoming more presale heavy, and I don't think it's going to stop.

Halloween had plenty of buzz, it's just a different type than Us. Halloween was literally opening on Halloween weekend, retaining the main characters, buoyed by good reviews and an immense amount of nostalgia + good timing. Halloween was the "hey it's Halloween, let's go see the movie" type of event. But like you said, Peele's brand is much more permeating. Kind of the "high-brow" type of horror. Like, the buzz for Us has been building, but for the most part, it's a movie that you know you're going to see. It's an anticipated follow-up to a breakout film. Hence the higher pre-sales

I don't know how this weekend will turn out, but I think some people might have gotten a bit too carried away by the hype for the movie, and it kind of set the results up to be a disappointment for some. Even if this movie did "only" $50m, that's a pretty fantastic result. But using a single strong day of presales as a predictor for the weekend is optimistic at best. The movie was always going to lean heavier on pre-sales than a "typical" horror film, and presales are becoming more prevalent in general year after year. At this point, I don't think it's possible for the film to have a bad result, and it's still in the realm of possibility that it goes absolutely nuts, but there's nothing wrong with tempering expectations.

I have no clue about the others, but I know that for A Quiet Place, around 90% of its tickets were sold day-of, which is why that one comp looks so crazy. The horror genre, in general, seems to skew towards late ticket purchases, but I think with Jordan Peele and the hype for the Get Out followup, Us is leaning a lot more into the pre-sales. I still think the opening will be massive and overperform, but I'm not sure about the "pure insanity" OW numbers yet.

I consider 40-45% “larger than normal,” not massive. Last week there was a 41% drop after a 32% Monday->Tuesday increase. So a similar drop after a much larger increase would definitely be absolutely fine

Yeah, a larger than normal drop is probably fine, it just doesn't want to see anything massive.

7.6 is a really impressive hold. If it holds well through the week I feel like it could manage something around a $37.5m weekend.

If we’re not wildly misinterpreting this and it does end up being anything close to 7.8, that would be a 50% jump, which seems insanely strong. If it doesn’t have a proportionally large Wednesday drop, it might have a shot at making 1/3 of its weekend in the Monday-Thursday frame.

Do you really think a 40.6% drop is feasible? Seems a bit on the low side. Was expecting something more around $37.5

Those numbers obviously aren't ideal for CM, but after those catastrophic weekdays, it looked like it could be a lot worse.