vafrow

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-11 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 36 New Sales: 0 Growth: 0% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 17 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 2.1 Ticket premium in effect: Yes Tickets by Showtime Slot Late Afternoon: 1/3 Early Evening: 29/7 Late Evening: 6/7 Tickets by Format Dolby: 1/7 IMAX: 11/6 VIP: 24/4 Comps 0.706x KOTPOTA for $3.5M 0.273x HG:BoSS for $1.6M 0.655x GB:FE for $3.1M Average: $2.7M Zero sales day when all comps seemed to have done well. Not a great result. Note: This isn't a holiday weekend in Canada, so that doesn't explain the slow sales. Hopefully it's just an anomaly. This has been very steady to date.

Every film has unique elements going for it. That's why trackers are using a variety of what they have at their disposal. Even if there's a BB4L comp available, a 2020 comp is challenging to use for a variety of reasons. I'm using HG: BoSS because it's versatile. It's a franchise that's not too front loaded and lands in that middle tier for opening previews. It's not too dependent on specific formats like IMAX. It's just a middle ground comp, and one of the first ones with the catchment area that I'm focused on right now. And while we're expecting good walk ups for Ride or Die, you don't want to solely use late growth comps, as you're tipping the scale towards a predetermined outcome. I try to use a mixture of films that have enough connective tissue. Also, I throw an average out there. Mainly because I noticed user BOfficestats compiles it in their Reddit summaries, so, I figure I may as well do the math since I have it Excel already. People can and should grab what stats they see as most relevant though for their own personal predictions.

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-12 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 36 New Sales: 4 Growth: 13% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 17 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 2.1 Ticket premium in effect: Yes Tickets by Showtime Slot Late Afternoon: 1/3 Early Evening: 29/7 Late Evening: 6/7 Tickets by Format Dolby: 1/7 IMAX: 11/6 VIP: 24/4 Comps 0.878x KOTPOTA for $4.4M 0.305x HG:BoSS for $1.8M 0.750x GB:FE for $3.5M Average: $3.2M Ghostbusters and Apes both went up in comps, but I didn't have Hunger Games included, so it's brought the average down. Still, its growing at a steady pace.

Took the family to see Garfield. It's not a good film, but it entertained the kids, particularly the younger ones. The matinee show was pretty busy with lots of young families that have probably been waiting for a film like this that's age appropriate. This was essentially an Illumination film, but maybe a third of the jokes.

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 32 New Sales since T-19: 15 Growth: 88% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 17 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 1.9 Ticket premium in effect: Yes Tickets by Showtime Slot Late Afternoon: 1/3 Early Evening: 25/7 Late Evening: 6/7 Tickets by Format Dolby: 1/7 IMAX: 11/6 VIP: 20/4 Comps 0.727x KOTPOTA for $3.6M 0.333x HG:BoSS 0.711x GB:FE for $3.3M Average: $3.5M I still expect this to be more walk up friendly than the comps being used, and should see a gradual rise as the date gets closer.

Inside Out 2, T-20 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 22 New Sales since T-24: 8 Growth: 57% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 15 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 1.5 Ticket premium in effect: Y Sales by Showtime Late Afternoon: 1/2 Early Evening: 14/7 Late Evening: 7/6 Sales by Format Dolby: 0/1 Dolby 3D: 12/6 IMAX: 3/4 VIP: 6/4 Comps 1.467x KFP4 for $5.6M Zero sales for Garfield at T-20 It's starting to grow. When the Garfield and IF comps start hitting, it's going to really distort things. Garfield had zero sales until T-18, IF only went on sale around T-18 but didn't have any sales until T-15. It'll be producing comps in the high teens or higher for a bit.

Thanks. The closest I have to a MCU heavy hitter is the Eras Tour, which was at 1% growth by around D4.

Deadpool and Wolverine, D5, T-62, Western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 1539 New Sales since D3: 168 Growth: 13% Theatres: 5 Showtimes: 41 Tickets per Showtime: 37.5 Chains tracked: MTC4 Ticket Premium in effect: Y Sales by Showtime Late Afternoon: 121/13 Early Evening: 891/14 Late Evening: 527/14 Sales by Format Non 3D (1342/21) Regular: 6/1 Dolby: 312/5 IMAX: 738/4 VIP: 278/8 4DX: 8/3 3D (197/20) Regular: 26/2 Dolby: 80/4 IMAX: 27/2 VIP: 64/6 Comps 8.896x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $89.0M 3.000x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $36.0M 5.637x Day 7 of The Marvels for $37.2M 0.494x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $18.6M Average: $45.2M Probably wasn't necessary to do an update on this at this point, but was kind of curious. 12% over two days is pretty strong once the rush passes. We're not at the bottom of the curve yet it seems.

Is the $1.9M for Garfield including the Sunday EA shows? My market was well off on Garfield, but my comp average was actually spot on for Furiosa, but was a composite of things ranging from $2.0 to $5.2. A little bit of a wide range makes me reluctant to pound my chest too hard on that.

Anyone looking for some optimism around Garfield, I did a quick count on Friday sales. I usually don't bother with that, but, I was curious. While Thursday sales don't seem to have moved much from my morning count of 30, Friday sales are at 238. That's a pretty ridiculous ratio that we don't see often. There's maybe more potential here over the weekend.

Furiosa, T-1 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 237 New Sales: 45 Growth: 23% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 22 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 10.8 Ticket premium in effect: Yes Tickets by Showtime Slot Late Afternoon: 13/4 Early Evening: 153/9 Late Evening: 71/9 Tickets by Format Dolby: 69/6 IMAX: 138/6 VIP: 23/5 4DX: 7/2 Regular: 0/3 Comps 0.197x Dune 2 for $2.0M 1.030x KOTPOTA for $5.2M 0.563x HG:BoSS for $3.2M Average: $3.5M This is a very weak finish. It didn't maintain pace with POTA, which I was hoping it might follow. At this stage, it's extremely IMAX heavy, but no showings over the course of the weekend are more than a third full, so there's zero rush factor to buy tickets. I don't think we're looking at bigger than normal walk ups or anything.

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews Total Sales: 30 New Sales: 13 Growth: 67% Theatres tracked: MTC4 Total theatres: 5 Showtimes: 14 Radius: 19 km Tickets per showtime: 2.1 Ticket premium in effect: No Sales by timing (sales/showtimes) Early Afternoon: 2/1 Late Afternoon: 12/3 Early Evening: 8/5 Late Evening: 8/5 Sales by format (sales/showtimes) Regular: 14/4 3D Regular: 9/6 Dolby: 2/2 3D Dolby: 5/2 Comps 0.071x KFP4 for $0.3M 0.171x Wonka for $0.6M 0.714x IF for $1.3M 0.260x Paw Patrol Mighty Pups* for ??? Average: $0.7M That's a weak finish for something with a really low baseline. Last week, at least IF saw a good final surge. This failed to match that pace.

Deadpool and Wolverine, D3, T-64, Western GTA (southern Ontario) Total Sales: 1371 New Sales: 99 Growth: 8% Theatres: 5 Showtimes: 41 Tickets per Showtime: 33.4 Chains tracked: MTC4 Ticket Premium in effect: Y Sales by Showtime Late Afternoon: 106/13 Early Evening: 772/14 Late Evening: 493/14 Sales by Format Non 3D (1207/21) Regular: 6/1 Dolby: 288/5 IMAX: 665/4 VIP: 242/8 4DX: 6/3 3D (164/20) Regular: 19/2 Dolby: 55/4 IMAX: 27/2 VIP: 63/6 Comps 8.309x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $83.1M 2.775x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $33.3M 5.022x Day 7 of The Marvels for $33.1M 0.469x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $17.7M Average: $41.8M 8% growth at this stage is very positive. I expect another drop tomorrow, but I'm probably not going to touch this until the weekend at this stage. I'm comping high, and without a proper MCU comparison (Marvels doesn't count), it's hard to gauge, but I feel this is just doing really well here.

I actually think reliable veteran studio director is a better fit for the MCU these days than indie auteur going straight to their first big budget production. That's paid dividends in the past, but, I think the MCU is in a different place right now. This project in particular likely benefitted from veteran experience, trying to get this project done around the strikes last year. I don't think there's much point trying to forecast the quality of this film. There's lots of different voices involved and lots of different variables.

I took a look at how Hit Man is doing. For Thursday previews, only two of the five theatres are playing it for previews (an additional is picking it up starting Friday), with only two tickets sold across the four showtimes. Taking a wider 50km radius, that captures most of the Greater Toronto Area gets 35 total tickets sold, with most being in the downtown locations (which also happens to be theatres where it probably played during TIFF). It's playing in 11 theatres (out of 26), with 26 showtimes. Hard to put that into too much context. It's not getting any marketing that I can see and really playing to cinephiles that have heard the word of mouth (hence the TIFF theatres doing better).