Alexdube

Based on what? Endgame? Endgame didn't even get an extension, for whatever reason, they certainly weren't getting that "re-release". And Titanic is a re-release they allowed yes? edit: Foreign movie quota? Well that doesn't tell me much on how it would affect an Avatar re-release but maybe I'll dig in on that. A Titanic re-release or an Avatar re-release are not common things though. There are only so much of these "biggest movies ever" that get re-released. It's probably more of a case by case situation

Right here buddy. How have we been silenced when Cameron is just getting started? Avatar 1 was just the warm up round

lol you serious? that's some analysis... What is China? They love re-releases over there, and T2 wasn't re-released there (because R rated I guess?) Titanic made what, 150mn from China alone on the 3d re-release? And isn't A2 one of the most hyped up movie in China according to the rating on Maoyan? Get some marketing going for A2, re-release A1 and EG's record is gone faster than Thanos can snap his fingers. There sure is a lot of untapped potential for A1 over there with how the country was severely lacking in theater screens back in 2009.

I think Cameron said he rather not have Sarah Connor at all than have her recast, so I was sort of applying the same logic with John. But you bring up good points, honestly don't know what's their thinking on the character.

I'll give you my take. With Arnold Linda and Cameron's name together you got a good nostalgia factor going on. The only question mark is John Connor. They made such a big deal out of him in 1 & 2 and now he's just sort of gone? I haven't tried to find the leaks so I don't know what they are going for, but it's a shame what happened with Furlong. They need a better trailer too. I've seen Deadpool and I know Miller can direct a good action scene, I'm sure there's better stuff in there to show. After the mixed reaction they received on the first one, they'll want to impress at the next Comic-Con. And please show more than 1 second of Arnold, this guy can always restore a bit of goodwill to the franchise. Cameron didn't want to get involved if they didn't bring back Arnold and I think he was right about that, they will need him. If you look at other franchises that aren't doing well lately (MIB, X-Men for example), they didn't bring back the actors people care about. Who do you want to see in an X-Men movie? Hugh Jackman, not there. Who do you want to see in a MIB movie? Tommy and Will Smith, both not there. Genisys didn't do incredible, but still did better than those other 2 because they at least had Arnie. And I like what Cameron said about making it a tight more streamlined thriller rather than a grandiose story that goes all over the place a la Genisys. That can help recapture the feeling of the earlier movies. Last thing, they won't have as many competition as those other movies that failed. So yeah, 100m domestic is definitely in play, as long as they play their cards right.

classy

I guess last week's numbers were a little underreported eh? Well done Marvel

Did I ever argued Avatar would've made 12 times more? No. But let's do the math for fun: considering Avatar made 200m with 5000 screens, 12x more would put it at 2.4 billions. No it would not make that, but even a fraction of that would still be massive. Of course there's a question of demand filling up more quickly rather than making the gross bigger, but then you also have to consider the walk-in audience and the availability of theater screens. How many tickets were lost because viewers went to something else because they couldn't get a seat for Avatar? And then consider that even entire cities weren't equipped to play Avatar. How many gave up just because they would have to travel hours just to see the movie? The increase in theater screens in China has been so massive it's clearly not just a question of demand getting satisfied more quickly. It's an increase of 1100% from Avatar in the biggest foreign market by a wide margin, and a population of 1.386 billion. It's like Endgame had been given a couple of extra countries for its run. There's no point in trying to downplay this, it is an absolutely massive change in the box office landscape.

what about 5 though? I guess this is the one that makes 5 billion 😉 I never said any of those movies will be the sensation A1 was though. But nothing will change what that first movie did Here's something that can be counted: China in 2009 --> 5000 theater screens China in 2019 --> 60 000 theater screens Now you're going to tell me that just because the exact number of extra admission this would have generated can't be counted, it shouldn't even be brought up, but I think it's a dishonest way of looking at things. And I would argue that admissions can't really be counted anyway, those are just estimates.

remember what Gavin said about how looking at factors selectively is pretty stupid I'm open to discuss all of them

"inflated 3d tickets" well this is to the credit of the movie, they sold it as an experience you had to see in 3d, of course it sold more 3d tickets and made more money out of it All this talk about Europe ER... the only point I was making is that Avatar still torches Endgame in Europe even if you adjust with ER. I mean shit it's making 2-3 times more in several countries, ER isn't gonna save you there buddy, don't even need to adjust for inflation.

Of course a movie is the product of its time, but it's not ONLY that. Making broad statements like that without any nuance isn't any better then looking at "factors selectively". Comparing Endgame to Avatar is NOT the same as comparing Avatar with Gone With the Wind, there's a world of difference between the two. Of course people who bring up GWTW often do it as a troll and aren't interested in any honest discussion. Of course there's a ton factors that will affect a run like Avatar or a run like Endgame, but the idea is to bring the most relevant ones to the table. If someone thinks an important factor is getting omitted, they add it to the table. That's how discussion works... and it's part of the exercise of looking at box office numbers. I don't see how it is "meaningless". I mean I get it, some Marvel fans would prefer to only look at the gross numbers coldly without thoughts or analysis, because that's the only way Endgame could potentially come out on top. Anyway enough of that, back to the main topic: is Endgame even getting 1m overseas this weekend?

Domestic sure. Although worldwide adjusted, there isn't any credible estimate for Gone With the Wind (wikipedia articles and IMDB blog posts don't exactly cut it). There is simply not enough data for old movies and the math is very complex. This box office expert from an IndieWire article puts Titanic above: So really there's no way to determine if GWTW is really the biggest.

well clearly it isn't since the Washington Post agrees with me 😉 "but Endgame sold 100 million more tickets by the way!" At least be consistent Again, China is all the proof I need to state that Endgame had a massive advantage in this run. The exchange rate factor is heavily counterbalanced by inflation, but there's nothing to counterbalance a massive expansion like China had. But I wish I could see someone credible that isn't a Marvel fanboy make the case that Endgame was bigger, so far I haven't seen anything like that. All the analysis I've seen so far point out that Avatar was at a clear disadvantage over Endgame (which is obvious honestly).

China is the biggest story of this run. There's just nothing else to compare. You're simply delusional if you don't recognize Endgame had an advantage in this run. Exchange rates are nothing compared to market expansions, especially when accounting for inflation. Avatar wins by a clear margin in pretty much all the markets that were already mature at the time. Japan, Russia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia still not close even when toying with exchange rates (and not even accounting for inflation). Meanwhile Endgame wins in places like China (5000 screens vs. 60 000). Does anyone even grasp how insane an advantage this is? If Endgame had at least broken 3 billion, then you could make the case for Endgame, but now that it's struggling to even pass Avatar? Nope. It's not close. And here's why it didn't do that: Endgame is a different kind of blockbuster than previous highest grossers. If you look at Avatar, Titanic, Jurassic Park or Star Wars, they all were visual spectacles that pushed the boundaries of special effects. They offered a unique theater experience. Endgame was huge because of what came before, but strip that away from the movie and it's just another comicbook movie. It was a monster hit because the MCU has a huge fanbase, but it didn't breakout into the general audience on the same level as those other movies did. But none of that takes away anything from Endgame. It was a movie obviously made with the fans in mind, more so than the general audience. And It has accomplished its real goal with flying colors: to conclude the last 10 years of MCU movies. It doesn't need to be the biggest movie ever and wasn't aiming to be. So I don't know why simply pointing out that Endgame isn't the biggest makes me a "hater", it just wasn't that kind of movie.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/03/why-avengers-endgame-will-never-really-be-bigger-than-avatar/?utm_term=.07d28d4a5d61

Okay... But I was referring to how, historically, everyone thought the movie was a sure bomb and were drawing obvious parallels with the fate of the Titanic

yeah kind of like Titanic

I don't disagree with any of this. But I'm always skeptical of people who are overconfident with their predictions, since these people often end up getting it wrong. I don't pretend to know the outcome of this run for sure, but clearly some people do. Let's see if they are right this time.

then show me your box office specialist credentials 😉 Alright that was fun now let's just let the numbers do the talking, good luck mate (not being cocky here)

a lot of people who have been following the box office for a long time said Endgame would make more than 3 billion a lot of people who have been following the box office for a long time said TFA would pass Avatar, then it ended not passing Titanic same kind of nonsense happened with Infinity War I'll be honest, I'm not sure who has any credibility in this field, certainly not you or me. And you're not understanding me, I'm not complaining about anything. I haven't seen anything particularly dodgy so far in this run. Like I said, I'm just curious to see how the rest of it will play out.

what are legs?

I'm only pointing that Disney is already making moves to put it over the line. Are any of you denying this? Is that an outrageous claim? I thought even the Marvel guys were agreeing with this. What was that re-release for? Look I don't mind the re-release. I'm just curious to see how it's going to play out in the next few weeks. If it does it with no extra weird bumps or without some kind of other re-re-release, then good job 👍

"lawl"