Clouseau

I'm thinking they will certainly be looking to ramp up the spectacle content as far as possible. But how far can they go if it's an espionage/Mission Impossible-style genre movie?? Black Widow is going to be the only MCU movie released in a 16 month period!! After releasing four (and with FFH soon maybe five) movies which hit a billion dollars plus in the preceding 16 months, that's a considerable barren spell.

Exactly, there can be different circumstances which lead to similar outcomes. Some flexibility in interpretation can be needed. Particularly when comparing and extrapolating percentages, which seems fraught with pitfalls!

The term "frontloaded" seems to be used in a terribly pejorative way around here. It's not inherently a bad thing. In fact, a billion dollars in three days is far better than a billion dollars in three months! Fast out of the blocks and a stroll to the finish gets to the same place as plodding along at a steady pace. 😀

I wondered about the possibility of linking The New Mutants to the MCU through any reshoots, but on balance think the idea is a non-starter. When mutants are introduced into the MCU, it will be a very important development for the series. But we know the next three years of Marvel movies, it's something like (in rough order) Black Widow, The Eternals, Doctor Strange 2, Shang-Chi, Black Panther 2, Captain Marvel 2, Guardians of the Galaxy 3, Spider-Man 3. I imagine Fantastic Four could be a surprise inclusion when Marvel announce their upcoming films this summer (depending how far ahead they are going to announce). All that leaves no room for more mutant movies for several years. For Feige to bring mutants into the universe and then have no follow-up movie for such a long time would be a misfire. And it's probably best to leave the whole X-Men/mutants storyline alone for at least five years after so many X-movies in the last twenty!

The 3 hour runtime has got to work against the movie to some extent. On other MCU movies, I might see it and think "whoa my nephew would love that!", so I go again and take him along. No worries for a 130min movie, but I'm not going to make a 6 year old sit through 180mins! So that's two tickets which go unsold for Endgame. Whether that might be a common trend, or whether I'm just a really wicked uncle, I'm not sure. 🤨 Also, a 3 hour movie on a weekday evening has got to be less appealing to casual moviegoers, no? Do 3 hour movies generally play the same as 2 hours? 🤔

I wonder, is there also a chance of a bump to Endgame business if/when it passes Avatar to achieve biggest worldwide gross ever? That sort of publicity might prompt some casuals to turn out just to see what all the fuss is about with this "historic" movie. Difficult to predict what might happen really, as a movie doesn't become the all-time record holder very often; twice in the last 25 years, isn't it?!?! 😲

On current form, The New Mutants. 😁

No, no, nothing to see! Yet. 😉

Yeah it's definitely an atypical scenario, but then Endgame is pretty atypical compared to most other MCU movies. Plus losing GOTG3 leaves an income gap that can never be recouped (since when GOTG3 does eventually arrive, it will be in a slot originally allocated to another MCU movie). Re-releasing a film that's already more than paid for itself would bring in some of that lost income, plus it would keep the release schedule more or less consistent. A long gap over winter is one thing, but over the summer, well it just seems like a big missed opportunity! EDIT: Just remembered, the tag scene of The Avengers was actually shot after the movie had already premiered, so there is a precedent! Imagine it; Endgame Special Edition, where Happy Hogan buys cheeseburgers! And Box Office Mojo's release schedule still has a slot listed for a Fox/Marvel movie on June 26, and obviously that's not happening anymore, so.... 🤔 😁

I do think the market could definitely support four MCU movies a year (Feb, May, Jul, Nov). And just when the franchise is on fire like never before, Marvel have lost a movie thanks to the James Gunn silliness and they only have two releases for 2020! Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 would have been only a year away, and Endgame was clearly made with one eye (😉) on setting up that movie to follow soon after. Now it's probably two years away at least. 🤦‍♂️ Although Black Widow has apparently been moved up to the May slot, technically there's still a gap for a Marvel release next year so I wonder if an Avengers Endgame re-release next summer might be an option. Extended end battle scene (we know they shot it), maybe an intermission (to boost concession sales and get exhibitors onside), perhaps even some newly shot footage (to explain some of the time confusion!). Not a huge wide release, just something to keep the franchise ticking over before The Eternals arrives late in the year, dressed up as a "gift to the fans" or something. It's good PR (and adds a few dollars to the total gross!).

We're barely over a week into the release of Avengers Endgame, and I just bought my ticket to see Spider-Man Far From Home. I guess it's impossible to say, but I wonder does this overlap in sales period much affect the movies, either upwards or downwards? Competing, or cross-promoting? 🤔

Yes, it was an achievement effects-wise, but really only incrementally better than what had come before, nothing as completely new and revolutionary as photo-real dinosaurs or a convincing immersive 3D environment. I think audiences were driven to Titanic more by the story and drama than the undeniable spectacle. Like Titanic, Endgame has brilliantly executed effects, but it's really nothing we aren't used to (Thanos being the stand-out achievement effects-wise), and it's certainly not what's pulling such huge numbers of people to the cinema. The story and characters are driving this juggernaut, which is really quite pleasing. Although I'm happy to see the next technological revolution when it comes along. Anyway..... I noticed earlier on Box Office Mojo that the adjusted ticket prices for last year are actually higher than prices this year. Endgame has to perform 1% better just to match Infinity War! 😁

It's interesting how the lead has been lost by a story focussed movie to a technical breakthrough movie and then back again several times. Compelling and tense Jaws was topped by technical wizardry of Star Wars, then topped by heart-warming E.T., topped by technical breakthrough of Jurassic Park, topped by doomed romance movie of Titanic, topped by technical spectacle of Avatar, perhaps to be topped by character-heavy Avengers Endgame. (Star Wars has a lot of heart, and Titanic and Endgame have a lot of spectacle, but they weren't the movie's main selling point.) Star Wars, Jurassic Park, and Avatar stand out in my memory as the only times when technology leaped ahead to the extent that a movie really showed audiences something they had never seen before, and created a "must-see" event. And it's weird how they are spaced by 16 years. So Endgame to take the lead, then be topped by a technological breakthrough movie in 2025. Can't wait!

And that's the common perception they were desperately backing away from; everyone knows that you can probably skip part one because part two fills in enough details. Promoting and releasing the films as Part I and Part II would have been a terrible handicap for Infinity War. Announcing them as such was a serious misstep, which Marvel quickly realised.

When Disney quickly dropped the "Infinity War Part II" title in favour of the "Avengers 4" placeholder, I assumed it was a move to help Part I to be seen as its own film, so that casual audiences wouldn't be inclined to think "ah, I'll skip this one and wait for the finale next year". Probably most people never even knew the movies had originally been announced as Part I and Part II. The cliffhanger ending of IW was presumably quite a surprise for them! 😁

IMO the amazing thing about the Endgame performance is not just whether it reaches totals and breaks records, but simply the incredible speed with which it's selling tickets. If the estimates for this weekend are a little under actuals, Endgame just passed The Last Jedi and The Avengers in only ten days. I think this is testament to the huge affection audiences have for these characters; people just cannot wait to discover their heroes' fates. Presumably that's why Infinity War Part I is being so remarkably outpaced by "Infinity War Part II", or, more appositely; "Infinity War - FINAL PART"! Including "End" in the title instead of "Part II" was a very smart move too. 👍

Didn't the shameless appropriation of movie stars' appearances go well beyond just Bruce Lee in that comic book? IIRC, during the 70s it not only featured Bruce Lee, but also Sean Connery and Marlon Brando!

If hit single tie-ins are now the measure of greatness, then Star Wars wins thanks to Meco!

It's not really true that Titanic came out of nothing. I know that these days kids grow up not realising that the sinking of the Titanic was an actual historical event, but back in the 90s people knew exactly what it was all about; in today's language the "brand identity" (or somesuch buzzword) was enormous. It was no automatic pass to success, but the awareness that the movie would be a dramatisation of a massive real-life disaster was near universal. The events hadn't quite slipped from the "within living memory" bracket, and many people would certainly recall late grandparents having told them of hearing news come through of the disaster. There was a sense of nostalgia for history that had touched you secondhand, that was about to slip away from memory entirely. Plus the adult audience of the 90s was a generation which was well familiar with "the disaster movie" as a hugely appealing genre (when done properly) in the same way that the superhero movie is today. Cameron's Titanic was a huge achievement, yet is the Russo's Endgame success, against the backdrop of enormous home entertainment competition, potential franchise fatigue after 21 previous movies in only a decade, and the lure of knowing an Endgame HD disc will be out in only three months, any the less of an achievement?

Cheers, I've occassionally read comments on fan forums where posters seem to think seeing a movie 20 times will be helpful to the box office total in some significant way but could never see it myself. Even 50,000 super-rabid US Marvel fans who all see a movie 20 times only add $10M or so to the gross. But as you say, it's indicative of a strong word of mouth factor among more regular ticket buyers. If ten people recommend the movie to ten people, who then see it and recommend to ten people, and so on, well.... after only seven iterations that's $100M+ on the box office!

I read that repeat business on Endgame is 85% up on Infinity War. Is this quantifiable in $ numbers? Will it add up to much after a couple of months play?