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Molek

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  1. Molek
    @VenomXXR pointed out the TS4 comp meant it could hit 35 with continued momentum (obviously it wasn't going to continue at that rate), but I could have envisioned a scenario where it touched 30 following amazing reviews, its momentum would have been quite simply unstoppable. Now it'll do... still great. Don't get me wrong, 20 previews is still fantastic, it's just not as ridiculously huge (Titanic-level) that people were hoping for. Should still easily pass BatB when everything's all said and done, and potentially reach Jurassic World. Mostly in line with what the average predictions were to begin with.
  2. Molek
    I'm guessing its momentum has been killed by those reviews since it stayed flat. Kind of expecting the comps to decrease to around 20 by previews night now instead of increase to 30 like was being indicated with the previous increases. This could have been so much bigger with good reviews...
  3. Molek
    Aladdin holding onto the consecutive days above $1m by a thread
  4. Molek
    Any comps? What's a good presale amount?
  5. Molek
    I think I meant the ratio of those two comps: Aladdin Pikachu / Fallen Kingdom 1.488/0.523 The Lion King Pikachu / Fallen Kingdom 4.641/1.626 They're both almost the same. I might be missing something obvious like you said, but doesn't that indicate it's performing identically to Aladdin by using the ratio? EDIT: I probably need to take a break cuz this isn't even making sense to me anymore. You are most likely right with the same ticket pool thing. It's coincidentally pointing to the same thing because it IS the same thing. Nevermind then..
  6. Molek
    @Porthos I did some searching of your previous Aladdin comps and found something interesting Aladdin T-12 1.488x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu 0.523x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom $7.00m previews (actual) Detective Pikachu predicted $8.48m previews (1.21x overperformed) Fallen Kingdom predicted $8.00m previews (1.14x overperformed) The Lion King T-12 4.641x as many tickets as Detective Pikachu 1.626x as many tickets as Fallen Kingdom Detective Pikachu predicts $26.5m previews Fallen Kingdom predicted $24.9m previews When you adjust for the overperformance of both of these they BOTH point to $21.8m previews. Which is also exactly the same as the Aladdin comp itself.
  7. Molek
    Don't really understand. How do you know that a lot of demand has been taken care of with 20M? It seems equally likely that 20M just points to a larger ratio of upcoming demand for the weekend.
  8. Molek
    I don't see how TLK would fall under 9.5x IM 21m previews would pretty much lock 200m OW imo Beauty and the Beast had 10.72x with 16.3m previews Fallen Kingdom had 9.68x with 15.3m previews Aladdin had 13.07x with 7m previews
  9. Molek
    I'm glad the comps are now converging to a single value. TS4 and especially Pikachu were far apart Edit: saw the comps have changed from days of sales to T- sales so that might explain that.
  10. Molek
    $34.8m (Pikachu) $22.9m (Aladdin) $20.4m (Godzilla) $17.4m (Toy Story 4) $22.4m (Fallen Kingdom) I like the increases here. Previews look like they will be above $20.5m and below $23m: I think it will do higher than Godzilla and lower than Aladdin. I'd give it a range of $195-240m OW, with an IM of 9.5 to 10.5
  11. Molek
    @Porthos Finally increased relative to Aladdin & Toy Story 4, decreased relative to the other 3 again. It's interesting how closely it's following FK now (and on Pulse when it first launched before it went down). Hopefully it won't follow the same opening which the early tracking also suggested. At least it's still ahead overall. Seems like a 175-235 opening to me currently which matches BOP long range.
  12. Molek
    What's your internal multi prediction? I think it will be right around 10.0x, so that's a 200m OW. Your Titanic club won't happen with that. I think Titanic requires at least 220 and that's assuming Jungle Book legs and Aladdin-like OS split.
  13. Molek
    $34.9m (Pikachu) $22.4m (Aladdin) $20.9m (Godzilla) $16.9m (TS4) $23.6m (JW:FK) Not liking how it's slipping. Do you have an idea as to why that might be?
  14. Molek
    @Porthos Lion King tickets are decreasing relative to the others. Hopefully they can increase again. $18m previews (TS4) $25m previews (Aladdin) $25m previews (JW:FK) Which is best comp?
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