Inceptionzq

Nah

Yeah, not really trying to straight up compare Mission Impossible to Bond, just the drop in IM. Spectre did a little over 13x, so I wouldn't be surprised by a comparable drop that Fallout had is what I'm saying

No Time to Die Megaplex Friday(212 showings) 7412(+681)/56218 in 15 theaters Black Widow comp: 20.99M Did better than I expected. Let's hope this is happening everywhere else

Spectre is not a good comparison. 6 years ago, and 8PM previews start. I think a decent insight is how Fallout’s IM changed from Rogue Nation. Rogue Nation(2015): 4M previews/55.5M weekend. Almost 14 IM Fallout(2018): 6M previews/61.2M weekend About 10 IM Won’t be surprised with 9-10x for NTTD. Hopefully it can go closer to 11x though, but I’m not holding my breath.

A: Domestic top 10: 1) No Way Home: 632M 2) Eternals: 326M 3) No Time to Die: 192M 4) Encanto: 158M 5) Sing 2: 126M 6) Matrix Resurrections: 117M 7) West Side Story: 109M 8. Ghostbusters Afterlife: 105M 9) Dune: 101M 10) Halloween Kills: 81M Backup 11*) House of Gucci: 53M *Only used if a film above exits the game B: Top 5 Domestic OW: 1) No Way Home: 217M 2) Eternals: 103M 3) No Time to Die: 67M 4) Matrix Resurrections: 59M 5) Encanto: 57M Backup 6*) Dune: 44M *Only used if a film above exits the game 😄 RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 50M House of Gucci B: 100M Dune C 150M Encanto D 200M No Time to Die RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones for their best 3 Day Weekend by the end of the game (Only a films highest Weekend gross is eligible: A: $30 Sing 2 B: $45 Dune C $60 Matrix Resurrections D $75 No Time to Die RFQ3: Predict the highest grossing film released in each month by the end of the game: A: October No Time to Die B: November Eternals 😄 December No Way Home 😧 January Scream 😧 RANDOM QUESTIONS OF DANGER 1. How many films in the OW Top 5 will release Day and Date on a streaming service? a) 0 b) 1 c) 2 2. If Venom had been eligible for the game, where would its final total gross finish? a) Top 3 b) Top 6 c) 7th or lower 3. Which of the following Studios will have the highest grossing film? a) Sony b) MGM c) Warner Bros 4. How many films will gross more than $100M? a) 6 or fewer b) 7-8 c) 9 or more 5. Which studio will have the most films in the top 5? a) Disney b) Sony c) Warner Bros 6. Which studio will have the most films in places 6-10? a) Disney b) Universal c) Warner Bros 7. Which studio will have the most films in places 10-15? a) Universal b) Sony c) Warner Bros 8. How many different films will finish 1st Domestic, 1st Top Weekend, and 1st WW? a) 1 b) 2 c) 3 9. Which of the following will have the highest combined Domestic gross? a) Eternals + Encanto b) Bond + Dune c) Spider-Man + Ghostbusters 10. Which of the following will have the closest combined best weekends? a) Spider-Man + Halloween b) Matrix + Sing c) Bond + West Side Story 11. How much will the Domestic Top 10’s combined gross be? a) Less than $1.25B b) $1.25B-1.6B c) Over $1.6B 12. How much will the top 5 best Weekends’ combined gross be? a) Less than $300M b) $300M-$400M c) Over $400M

Part A: 1. Will No Time To Die to more than $75M? 1000 No 2. Will No Time To Die to more than $100M? 2000 No 3. Will No Time To Die to more than $87.5M? 3000 No 4. Will No Time To Die's best day be enough to take number 1 for the weekend on its own? 4000 No 5. Will Venom drop more than 54%? 1000 Yes 6. Will Addam's Family stay above $10M? 2000 No 7. Will South of Heaven open above Lamb? 3000 No 8. Will Chal Mera Putt 3 stay above Titane? 4000 Yes 9 Will Free Guy drop more than 50%? 1000 No 10. Will Candyman increase more than 65% on Saturday? 2000 No 11. Will Evan Hanson have a PTA above $375? 3000 No 12. Will Shang Chi have a smaller percentage drop than Jungle Cruise? 4000 Yes 13. Will No Time To Die's Domestic Total after Sunday be closer to the domestic total of Venom or Evan Hanson? 6000 Dear Evan Hansen Bonus: 6/13 2000 7/13 4000 8/13 6000 9/13 9000 10/13 12000 11/13 16000 12/13 20,000 13/13 24,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will No Day To Die make for its 3 day OW? $67,326,731 2. What will Venom's percentage drop be? 65.72% 3. What will Lamb's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1054 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. No Time to Die 2. Venom 4. Shang-Chi 6. Free Guy 8. Lamb 10. Chal Mera Putt 3

Nvm, it seems like there's a typo in the preseason predictions thread? On here, it says weekends closest to those numbers, but on the preseason thread, it says it's for Worldwide

@chasmmi Is RFQ2 meant to be 30M, 45M, 60M, and 75M for WW or is there supposed to be another zero attached to all of them?

No Time to Die Megaplex Friday(212 showings) 6731(+1351)/56218 in 15 theaters Black Widow comp: 20.72M The decrease isn't surprising considering the MTC data. BW comp will probably be under 20M by tomorrow morning.

For sure, it’ll be hard for it to pass 200M without the old demos

Oh yeah that Dune trailer in IMAX is amazing. I was already sold on it, but I had to change my seat when I saw Venom on Tuesday. The acoustics in the back of the IMAX theater are so much better than where I normally sit.

Honestly I’m glad I get to see the trailer more. Seriously, I don’t know I’ll actually go see the movie, but the trailer in IMAX is awesome.

Dune Megaplex T-14 days Thursday(36 showings): 1244(+148)/11568 in 13 theaters Shang-Chi comp: 17.80M Black Widow comp: 8.09M T-15 days Friday(85 showings): 1209(+147)/29930 in 15 theaters Shang-Chi comp: 68.75M Black Widow comp: 25.75M T-16 days Saturday(82 showings): 550(+84)/28944 in 14 theaters T-17 days Sunday(67 showings): 180(+33)/23463 in 12 theaters Still very strong here. Almost caught up to BW Friday in 4 days, whereas BW has had 13 days of sales at this point.

Dune Thursday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 219 653 33.54% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 156 1451 10.75% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 768 43 10415 7.37% 15 53 AMCs sold 591 Cinemarks sold 45 Regals sold 124 Harkins sold 8 Shang-Chi comp: 10.45M Black Widow day 4 comp: 9.98M

Halloween Kills Megaplex T-7 days Thursday(24 showings): 147(+21)/4244 in 14 theaters Suicide Squad comp: 3.22M T-8 days Friday(51 showings): 145(+33)/8135 in 13 theaters Suicide Squad comp: 8.17M T-9 days Saturday(51 showings): 53(+14)/8135 in 13 theaters T-10 days Sunday(30 showings): 19(+2)/4882 in 9 theaters

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 82 311 26.37% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 39 318 12.26% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 332 22 4897 6.78% 15 31 AMCs sold 211 Cinemarks sold 65 Regals sold 35 Harkins sold 21 A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.99M Suicide Squad comp: 3.36M Fast 9 comp: 3.29M

No Time to Die Megaplex T-0 days Thursday(91 showings): 3046(+999)/24956 in 15 theaters Shang-Chi comp: 6.30M Black Widow comp: 4.86M T-1 days Friday(212 showings): 5380(+1280)/56218 in 15 theaters Black Widow comp: 22.52M T-2 days Saturday(215 showings): 3056(+608)/56677(+233) in 15 theaters T-3 days Sunday(191 showings): 630(+127)/51036 in 15 theaters Friday and Saturday look pretty good, so we'll see how they end up doing. I'll do another Friday update tonight and tomorrow morning. But still looks like Megaplex is overperforming, so I'll just stick with what Denver is pointing to

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 326 1690 19.29% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 436 2114 20.62% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2366 685 19097 12.39% 15 120 Showings added: 1 Seats added: 48 AMCs sold 1332 Cinemarks sold 322 Regals sold 525 Harkins 187 Suicide Squad comp: 4.91M Fast 9 comp: 5.85M Venom 2 comp: 6.26M Very weak finish. Added Venom 2 just for the 4PM start comparison, also note that I counted F9 an hour early. Hopefully walkups are good. I think it'll land at 6.8M(1.1M Wed 5.7M Thurs) for total previews

“This is only the beginning”

No Time to Die Wednesday Showings Denver 568(+228)/1429 in 4 theaters No Time to Die Megaplex Wednesday 976(+368)/2741 in 5 theaters Not too sure what to make of these numbers, but these are about 2% out of all shows domestically(459 showings according to katniss). Using some napkin math, total gross is somewhere around $26000 between the two theaters. Megaplex is most likely overperforming from how Thursday&Friday look, so I'll say the gross is 2.5% of domestic total. With that, we arrive at 1.04M. I guess a bit of a complicated way to say about 1M for Wed

1) Shang-Chi 2) Loki 3) What If? 4) WandaVision 5) Falcon and the Winter Soldier 6) Black Widow

Dune Megaplex T-15 days Thursday(36 showings): 1096(+165)/11568(+481) in 13 theaters Shang-Chi comp: 17.50M Black Widow comp: 7.33M T-16 days Friday(85 showings): 1062(+121)/29930(+609) in 15 theaters Shang-Chi comp: 70.69M Black Widow comp: 23.51M T-17 days Saturday(82 showings): 466/28944 in 14 theaters T-18 days Sunday(67 showings): 147/23463 in 12 theaters Unsurprisingly, it's very frontloaded. But Thursday and Friday are putting up fantastic numbers

Dune Thursday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 208 653 31.85% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 152 1451 10.48% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 725 95 10415 6.96% 15 53 Showings added: 3 Seats added: 646 AMCs sold 571 Cinemarks sold 43 Regals sold 109 Harkins sold 2 Shang-Chi comp: 11.52M Black Widow day 3 comp: 10.26M

Halloween Kills Megaplex T-8 days Thursday(24 showings): 126(+26)/4244 in 14 theaters T-9 days Friday(51 showings): 112(+14)/8135 in 13 theaters T-10 days Saturday(51 showings): 39/8135 in 13 theaters T-11 days Sunday(30 showings): 17/4882 in 9 theaters

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 78 311 25.08% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 34 318 10.69% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 310 61 4897 6.33% 15 31 Showings added: 2 Seats added: 436 AMCs sold 195 Cinemarks sold 63 Regals sold 31 Harkins sold 21 A Quiet Place 2 comp: 4.12M Suicide Squad comp: 3.49M Fast 9 comp: 3.24M It's doing quite well. Most likely just a random spike today, but the overall pace still looks good.