Inceptionzq

Is “positive” and “definite recommend” the same metric though?

Yeah China didn’t release at the same time for TLJ. Without China, the international debut was 55.5M vs TLJ’s 60.8M.

This is just 2 theaters, but FWIW my Harkins theaters did extremely well. Harkins Arvada 14: 1138 sold vs TLK’s 553. Harkins Northfield 18: 2076 sold vs TLK’s 826.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2635 4011 65.69% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 2363 4127 57.26% SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 14264 1705 25227 56.54% 9 211 Showings removed: 1 Seats sold/total seats removed: 114 Showings added: 13 Seats added: 721 Frozen 2 count comp: 34.62M Maleficent count comp: 40.45M IT 2 count comp: 38.57M Hobbs count comp: 40.32M Adjusted OUATiH count comp: 42.24M Lion King count comp: 43.24M Average: 39.91M I'm quite surprised it accomplished the goal of 1655 tickets that needed to be sold. Unfortunately a sold out showing was removed, so it seems like it was a false sell out. Nonetheless, it still made a net increase of 1591 tickets. It's possibly overperforming here, so I'll play it safe and go with 39M

1. Will Star Wars Open to more than $180M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Star Wars Open to more than $220M? 2000 No 3. Will Star Wars Open to more than $200M? 3000 No 4. Will Star Wars have a single day above $95M? 4000 No 5. Will Star Wars make double its Sunday Gross on Friday? 5000 No 6. Will Cats open to more than $10M? 1000 Yes 7. Will Cats open to more than $15M? 2000 No 8. Will Cats open to more than $12.5M? 3000 No 9. Will Cats OW make more than 5% of Star Wars' OW? 4000 Yes 10. Will Cats make more than double Bombshell's Weekend gross? 5000 No 11. Will Jumanji drop more than 60%? 1000 Yes 12. Will Frozen drop more thaan 45%? 2000 No 13. Will Richard Jewell stay above Ford vs Ferrari? 3000 Yes 14. Will Queen and Slim stay in the top 10? 4000 Yes 15. Will Dabaang 3 make more than $2M? 5000 No 16. Will Black Christmas have a larger percentage drop than Last Christmas? 1000 Yes 17. Will Knives out have a PTA above %1,500? 2000 Yes 18. Will Beautiful day in Neighbourhood drop less than 40%? 3000 No 19. Will Playmobil make more than $20k this weekend? 4000 No 20. Has the moon lost her memory? 5000 I guess so? Part B: 1. What will Star Wars make for its 3 day OW? $182,343,200 2. What will Cats make on Saturday? $4,032,412 3. What will Knives Out percentage drop be? 43% Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Cats 5. Bombshell 7. Richard Jewell 8. Ford v Ferrari 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 12. Dark Waters

Week 8: No

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2421 4011 60.36% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 2147 3926 54.69% SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 12673 567 24620 51.47% 9 199 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 30.76M Final Maleficent count comp: 35.94M Final IT 2 count comp: 34.27M Final Hobbs count comp: 35.82M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 37.36M Final Lion King count comp: 38.42M Average: 35.43M Very disappointing day. The reviews might be hurting sales. Also the lack of more showtimes being added from 6-9PM isn't helping. But more should be added later this afternoon and evening. So, we'll see if there are enough openings in those hours for a big boost tomorrow. To get the average of my comps to 40M, there needs to be 1655 tickets sold between now and previews. Which is a big number to reach, perhaps too big of a number.

I’m not entirely convinced on 200M+ because of this. But if the weekend presales are actually pacing for 200M+, then that would mean weekday presales are relatively weak.

That and a higher percentage of the presales will be for the weekdays since TRoS is closer to Christmas than TLJ was

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2314 4011 57.69% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 2081 3926 53.01% SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 12106 578 24620 49.17% 9 199 Showings added: 2 Seats added: 158 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 29.38M Final Maleficent count comp: 34.33M Final IT 2 count comp: 32.74M Final Hobbs count comp: 34.22M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 35.60M Final Lion King count comp: 36.70M Average: 33.83M

Ahh yeah you’re right then. They also say 312M for TFA, which would definitely include China. Well if they’re right with 250M OS, that’d be kinda interesting to see an increase there and a decrease domestically.

That doesn’t include China for TLJ though, right? So that would be 230M OS-China for TRoS

1. The Rise of Skywalker 2. Tenet 3. Eternals 4. Wonder Woman 5. Black Widow 6. 1917 7. Mulan 8. Soul 9. Godzilla v Kong 10. Raya and the Last Dragon

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2204 4011 54.95% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 2023 3926 51.53% SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 11528 490 24462 47.13% 9 197 Showings added: 1 Seats added: 114 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 27.98M Final Maleficent count comp: 32.69M Final IT 2 count comp: 31.17M Final Hobbs count comp: 32.58M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 33.77M Final Lion King count comp: 34.95M Average: 32.19M

That means TRoS is outpacing TLJ by a pretty wide margin in MTC 1. According to Jat, T-8 was 23M for TLJ and TRoS 20.84M. 2.5M vs 4.16M gains since then.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2108 4011 52.56% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1988 3926 50.64% SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 11038 279 24348 45.33% 9 196 Showings added: 2 Seats added: 159 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 26.79M Final Maleficent count comp: 31.30M Final IT 2 count comp: 29.85M Final Hobbs count comp: 31.20M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 32.23M Final Lion King count comp: 33.46M Average: 30.81M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 2052 4011 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1949 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 10759 263 24189 44.48% 9 194 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 26.11M Final Maleficent count comp: 30.51M Final IT 2 count comp: 29.09M Final Hobbs count comp: 30.41M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 31.36M Final Lion King count comp: 32.62M Average: 30.02M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1948 4011 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1923 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 10496 257 24189 43.39% 9 194 Showings added: 3 Seats added: 858 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 25.48M Final Maleficent count comp: 29.77M Final IT 2 count comp: 28.38M Final Hobbs count comp: 29.67M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 30.54M Final Lion King count comp: 31.82M Average: 29.28M

I don’t think there’ll be a noticeable surge from that here since I count in the afternoon. Assuming that most people don’t watch the episodes until the afternoon/evening. So if there’s a surge from that, it’ll be lumped in with my final count on Thursday. And of course, it’ll already have a huge bump anyways since it’s the day of previews

The next few days of presales for TRoS should be interesting... The IMAX theater in AMC Westminster 24 has reopened. I honestly didn’t even realize it shut down. The last time I tracked it was for Gemini Man, so the only major major release since then was Frozen 2. I noticed they added last minute IMAX showings for Jumanji but didn’t think anything of it until now. So now there’s 3 new showings of 286 seats each. A decent amount of people have already noticed. Gonna be fun to watch

1. Will Jumanji make more than $37.5M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Jumanji make more than $52.5M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Jumanji make more than $45M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Jumanji make more than all other new entries combined? 4000 Yes 5. Will Jumanji increase on Saturday from its 'true Friday' (Friday gross minus Previews total)? 5000 Yes 6. Will Richard Jewel open to more than $12M? 1000 No 7. Will Richard Jewel open to more than $15M? 2000 No 8. Will Black Christmas open to more than $12M? 3000 No 9. Will Black Christmas open to more than $15M? 4000 No 10. Will Richard Jewel open to more than Black Christmas? 5000 No  11. Will Frozen stay in the top 2? 1000 Yes 12. Will Bombshell enter the top 5? 2000 No 13. Will Ford vs Ferrari stay above Queen and Slim? 3000 Yes 14. Will Playmobil drop more than 77%? 4000 Yes 15. Will this be the final wide release worth talking about in 2019? 5000 Blasphemy... who doesn't want to talk about Spies in Disguise? Part B: 1. What will Jumanji's OW be? $53,842,348 2. What will Frozen' percentage drop be? 40.6% 3. What will Knives Out's PTA be? $2780 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Frozen 2 4. Richard Jewell 6. Ford v Ferrari 8. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 10. 21 Bridges 12. Midway

Singapore Turkey Mexico Brazil Russia

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 287 2906 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 223 1769 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1251 652 13650 9.16% 9 76 Showings added: 6 Seats added: 1404 Maleficent comp: 3.55M Gemini Man comp: 3.72M Addams Family comp: 3.63M IT 2 comp: 3.38M Hobbs comp: 3.54M Adjusted OUATiH comp: 3.59M Lion King comp: 3.79M Not as much of a boost that I had hoped for, but it's still early. Walkups will probably be huge. I removed comps that didn't seem to have great walkups, and added some mostly for the showtime start comp. I'll go with 3.75M. I'm thinking this will have better walkups than most of these because it should have a good amount of teens/young adults for the later showings.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1884 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1900 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 10239 195 23331 43.89% 9 191 Final Frozen 2 count comp: 24.85M Final Maleficent count comp: 29.04M Final IT 2 count comp: 27.69M Final Hobbs count comp: 28.94M Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 29.73M Final Lion King count comp: 31.04M Average: 28.55M

Week 7: No