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Inceptionzq

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Everything posted by Inceptionzq

  1. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1635 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1678 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8345 44 22870 36.49% 9 182
  2. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1626 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1676 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8301 46 22870 36.30% 9 182
  3. Inceptionzq
    Well this kind of tracking is new territory for me, so I’m not exactly sure how it will behave from here on out. I don’t think it will get close to doubling the ticket count from here on out, but let’s say it increases by 80%. That would give me a range of 37.8M-45M with some comps. Frozen 2 is the low end and TLK is the high end. And with the way Frozen 2 overperformed here, the low end is probably a low ball. So let’s say it’s actually 39M(which still might be a low ball). The median of the range is 42M. The average of the comps is 41.5M. So yeah, I think this is definitely clearing 40M. And personally I’m trusting TLK comp the most, which would give TLJ previews. I guess rn I’ll go with 41-47M for the range.
  4. Inceptionzq
    I don’t see why not. It’s essentially a TRoS O/U 600M club. And I don’t think there’s any like that rn. I don’t even see an O/U TLJ DOM club
  5. Inceptionzq
    I’m kinda skeptical on it opening above TLJ, even if it matches or slightly beats TLJ’s Thursday previews. I think that the IM will be worse due to travel. So, travelers might opt to wait until the weekdays, especially Christmas, to go see it. But it could just end up being a little more backloaded with Friday and Saturday being slightly depressed, and Sunday being slightly boosted.
  6. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1623 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1668 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8255 74 22870 36.10% 9 182
  7. Inceptionzq
    I echo captainwondyful about Knives Out. It is an A+ film. It will truly subvert your expectations. Also my local theater decided to start doing movie trailer > ad > trailer > ad > trailer. I HATE it so much. Ruins the flow
  8. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1621 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1656 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8181 49 22870 35.77% 9 182
  9. Inceptionzq
    It has to drop below 70% since it’s already certified
  10. Inceptionzq
    Obviously the best comp. 1.7B OW incoming
  11. Inceptionzq
    Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 556 1798 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 640 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 3502 1111 13910 25.18% 9 101 Lion King comp: 10.62M Abominable comp: 9.77M Addams Family comp: 10.16M Maleficent comp: 9.93M Because TLK was during the Summer, it probably makes sense to eliminate that comp and focus more on the other 3. Using the average of those, I get 9.95M. The late walkups for this will probably be slightly better than Abominable and Maleficent, but not Addams Family since that started at 4. So, I'll go with 10.1M
  12. Inceptionzq
    Part A: 1. Will Frozen to more than $120M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Frozen Open to more than $150M? 2000 No 3. Will Frozen Open to more than $135M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Frozen increase on Saturday? 4000 Yes 5. Will Frozen make more than 75% of the total gross of the top 5 movies of the weekend? 5000 No 6. Will Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood open to more than $13M? 1000 Yes 7. Will Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood open to more than $16M? 2000 Yes 8. Will 21 Bridges open to more than $6M? 3000 Yes 9. Will 21 Bridges open to more than $9M? 4000 Yes 10. Beautiful day open to more than double 21 Bridges? 5000 No 11. Will Beautiful Day open in 2nd place? 1000 No 12. Will Ford vs Ferrari drop less than 50%? 2000 Yes 13. Will Dark Water Open above Charlie's Angels? 3000 No 14. Will Midway stay in the top 5? 4000 No 15. Will Playing with Fire stay in the top 5? 5000 Yes 16. Will Ford vs Ferrari's Domestic Total overtakeTerminator's by the end of Sunday? 1000 Yes 17. Will Charlie's Angels have the worst PTA in the top 10? 2000 Yes 18. Will Maleficent stay above Harriet? 3000 Yes 19. How many films will make more than $4M this weekend? 4000 Six 20. Will this weekend get back to normal, or is Frozen opening to $52,5M million because cinema is dead? 5000 Yes Part B: 1. What will Frozen make for its 3 day OW? $146,730,000 2. What will Last Cheristmas's Sunday gross be? $935,000 3. What will Joker's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $2460 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Ford v Ferrari 4. 21 Bridges 5. Playing with Fire 7. Last Christmas 9. Charlie's Angels 11. Maleficent
  13. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1650 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8132 55 22870 35.56% 9 182
  14. Inceptionzq
    Week 4: Yes
  15. Inceptionzq
    That’s a low multiplier for this imo. Should at least be 4.5-5x
  16. Inceptionzq
    It definitely can, and I think it will. The presales data seems to support that, but that could change. Menor laid it out pretty well
  17. Inceptionzq
    *boxofficereport
  18. Inceptionzq
    Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 392 1798 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 497 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2391 323 13675 17.48% 9 97 Showings added: 19 Seats added: 1183 Lion King comp: 10.76M
  19. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1615 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1638 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8077 61 22870 35.32% 9 182
  20. Inceptionzq
    Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 352 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 432 2309 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2068 187 12492 16.55% 9 78 Showings added: 9 Seats added: 614 Lion King comp: 10.89M Barely an increase in tickets sold from yesterday. Presumably because there's not enough good seats from 6-7:30ish to meet demand. Highlands Ranch just added a bunch of showings which should help out a lot tomorrow. And other theaters should be adding more sometime today or tomorrow. So, we'll see if that gives a big boost to tickets sold.
  21. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1611 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 8016 57 22870 35.05% 9 182
  22. Inceptionzq
    Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 342 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 402 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1881 175 11878 15.84% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.54M
  23. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1596 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1631 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7959 36 22870 34.80% 9 182
  24. Inceptionzq
    Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 333 1404 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 377 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1706 162 11878 14.36% 9 69 Lion King comp: 11.78M
  25. Inceptionzq
    The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1592 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1624 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7923 35 22870 34.64% 9 182
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