Inceptionzq

https://deadline.com/2019/11/doctor-sleep-weekend-box-office-opening-stephen-king-emilia-clarke-last-christmas-terminator-1202779022/

I did, but no comps until tomorrow. It’s gonna look really bad though. I tracked 6 theaters at that point for TLK, and it was at 1114 tickets sold. In the same theaters, Frozen is currently at 362. TLK has an extra week of sales at that point, which is largely why it’ll look so bad. Another reason it’ll look bad is because Frozen has been doing horribly at theaters not named Century X or AMC Y. I have 3 theaters that aren’t from those chains, and they are barely selling more than 10% of the total. Normally, I would expect closer to 20% right now. But this shouldn’t affect the Lion King comps as much as the week difference in time of presales. Mostly just something to think about when looking at the AMC and Cinemark/Century data.

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 105 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 139 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 631 165 9539 6.61% 9 55

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 63 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 50 539 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 207 52 4987 4.15% 9 30 Showings added: 8 Seats added: 1491 Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.42M Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.7M IT 2 comp: 1.13M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1527 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1588 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7456 52 22870 32.60% 9 182 Over 98% of The Lion King's final total.

The Lion King’s opening Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Week 2: Yes

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 65 1030 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 110 1695 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 9 HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 466 466 9539 4.89% 9 55

It’s an AMC Dolby exclusive fan event

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 53 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 31 329 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 155 37 3496 4.43% 9 22 Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.52M Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.56M Terminator comp: 1.63M IT 2 comp: 1.03M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1527 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1578 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7404 34 22870 32.37% 9 182

Starting out with 55 showings here. Thought it’d be higher, but I guess the theaters will wait until we’re closer to release.

Final total of ticket sales for Thursday previews

97% of the final total

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 46 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 19 329 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 118 24 3496 3.38% 9 22 Showings added: 1 Seats added: 97 Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.72M Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.52M Terminator comp: 1.46M IT 2 comp: 832K

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1525 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1571 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7370 52 22870 32.23% 9 182 Over 97% of The Lion King.

You’ll have no shortage of F2 tracking here

When you factor in pre-previews, mid 20s looks likely. Possibly high 20s too. They’re hard to estimate, but I don’t think it did more than 1M. Might even pin it at around 875K. Only 7/9 theaters I track did pre-previews, and 8 showings between them. I didn’t record it, but it sold somewhere in the mid 300s. I think around 360. Downton Abbey did 2.2M, and had all 9 theaters with 13 showings. It sold 809 tickets. Doctor Sleep would comp out to almost 980K. But if it also had less showings and theaters nationwide, then probably less than that. The floor might be something like 800K. But all things considered, 800K should be enough to get overall previews to 2.5M+. And with usual frontloading by fans, that would get around 25M.

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 36 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 14 329 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 94 12 3399 2.77% 8 21 Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.68M Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.47M Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.61M IT 2 comp: 715K

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1520 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1569 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7318 58 22870 32.00% 9 182 Over 96% of The Lion King

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 33 346 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 11 329 SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 82 14 3399 2.41% 8 21 Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.65M Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.56M Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.66M IT 2 comp: 687K

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1511 3153 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 1565 3926 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 7260 33 22870 31.74% 9 182

A: Domestic top 15: 1) The Rise of Skywalker: 718M 2) Frozen 2: 496M 3) Jumanji: 301M 4) Birds of Prey: 131M 5) Little Women: 124M 6) Dolittle: 115M 7) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: 111M 😎 Ford v Ferrari: 106M 9) Bad Boys for Life: 103M 10) Cats: 97M 11) Terminator: 95M 12) Doctor Sleep: 91M 13) Knives Out: 87M 14) Spies in Disguise: 85M 15) Last Christmas: 81M Backup 16*) Richard Jewell: 73M *Only used if a film above exits the game B: Top 7 Domestic OW: 1) The Rise of Skywalker: 208M 2) Frozen 2: 138M 3) Birds of Prey: 83M 4) Jumanji: 73M 5) Dolittle: 46M 6) Bad Boys for Life: 41M 7) Terminator: 37.5M Backup 8*) Doctor Sleep: 28M *Only used if a film above exits the game 😄 Worldwide top 12: 1) The Rise of Skywalker: 1.527B 2) Frozen 2: 1.435B 3) Jumanji: 826M 4) Dolittle: 361M 5) Birds of Prey: 318M 6) Terminator: 293M 7) Cats: 277M 😎 Little Women: 268M 9) Bad Boys for Life: 259M 10) Spies in Disguise: 250M 11) Ford v Ferrari: 243M 12) Doctor Sleep: 238M Backup 13*) Knives Out: 196M *Only used if a film above exits the game 😧 TOP 5 Weekends 1) Dec 20-22: 308M 2) Nov 22-24: 229M 3) Dec 27-29: 213M 4) Nov 29-Dec 1: 173M 5) Dec 13-15: 147M backup 6*) *Only used if a film above exits the game E: Multipliers 1) Little Women: 5.9 2) Cats: 5.8 3) Spies in Disguise: 5.68 4) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: 5.29 5) Richard Jewell: 5.21 backup 6*) Last Christmas: 4.82 *Only used if a film above exits the game F: Total Grosses Top 15 DOM) 2.81B Top 7 OW) 625M Top 12 WW) 6.49B Top 5 W/E) 1.07B Average Multi) 5.59 G: RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 70M: Richard Jewell B: 100M: Cats 😄 200M: Birds of Prey 😧 300M: Jumanji E: 400M: Frozen RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones Worldwide by the end of the game: A: $1.2B: Frozen B: $900M: Jumanji 😄 700M: Jumanji 😧 500M: Dolittle E: 300M: Terminator RFQ3: Predict the highest grossing film released in each month by the end of the game: A: November: Frozen 2 B: December: The Rise of Skywalker 😄 January: Dolittle D February: Birds of Prey E: Best Picture: Little Women

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 218 1124 AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 159 753 SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 935 603 6829 13.69% 9 33 Showings added: 2 Seats added: 316 Zombieland 2 comp: 1.94M Gemini Man comp: 2.78M Hobbs comp: 2.64M Rambo comp: 2.58M Hustlers comp: 2.77M Walkups will probably be weaker than all of these movies since it's Halloween. But when we take out the Zombieland comp, low 2Ms does look pretty good. I'll go with 2.3M. Maybe this actually will get close to a 40M OW.

Part A: 1. Will Terminator Open to more than $30M? 1000 YES 2. Will Terminator Open to more than $40M? 2000 NO 3. Will Terminator Open to more than $35M? 3000 YES 4. Will Terminator' drop more than 30% on Sunday? 4000 YES 5. Will Terminator's Saturday be enough to take number 1 for the weekend on its own? 5000 YES 6. Will Joker finish in 2nd place? 1000 YES 7. Will Addam's Family stay in the top 5? 2000 YES 8. Will Arctic Dogs open above Motherless Brooklyn? 3000 YES 9. Will Inside Game have a higher PTA than The Portal? 4000 YES 10. Will Countdown stay above Black and Blue? 5000 NO 11. Will Zombieland drop more than 53%? 1000 NO 12. Will Gemini Man increase more than Joker on Saturday? 2000 YES 13. Will Parasite have a PTA above $7,500k? 3000 NO 14. Will JoJo Rabbit enter the top 8? 4000 NO 15. Will Current War stay above The Lighthouse? 5000 NO 16. Will Maleficent's Domestic Total overtake Addam's Family's by the end of Sunday? 1000 NO 17. Will Gemini Man have the worst PTA in the top 10? 2000 YES(but will it even be in the top 10?...) 18. Will Abominable stay above Downton Abbey? 3000 NO 19. How many films will make more than $7M this weekend? 4000 FIVE 20. How many of these questions will turn out to be a fecking nightmare because of all the changes and stuff? 5000 100% Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Terminator make for its 3 day OW? $37,723,674 2. What will Joker's Sunday gross be? $3,531,234 3. What will Zombieland's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1765 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Terminator 2. Joker 4. Harriet 6. Zombieland 8. Black and Blue 10. Motherless Brooklyn