Liiviig 1998
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Posts posted by Liiviig 1998
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Ahh yes breakeven for 190m bud is 700m !!!
150M marketing bud was pretty standard pre covid . Alot of movies have made profits on sub 650m with 200m+ budgets.
God lord even reddit is more consistent.
This forum ,you will see posts like Aquaman 2 broke even, MI7 ,F9 etc.. . Rules change like water here . One day it's 2x, 2.5x . 3x!!!
Trades have their 2.5* P. Budget breakeven . Ancillaries doing the rest of that esp marketing.
Do we know everything that happens behind the numbers . No .
Are the trades super reliable ? No . But they know more.
But I swear some just drop random Numbers as breakeven. 700m is like 3.5times it's PD. It would be swimming in healthy profit with that.
Very few movies make profit on the theatrical alone.
500m is enough .
Breakeven discussions here get very insufferable
Some acting like 190m is 250m+ budget or something.
Dune 2 is literally way cheaper that most major tentpoles which have ballooned to 200M+ budgets this days.
Good OW here and it outopening the previous one in most places ,stellar reception and we are getting this whole weird concern about it's breakeven LMAO.
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49 minutes ago, Firepower said:
I'm not sure, it could gross less than Wonka if legs are less than great.
Domestically. Wonka is winning I think.
World wide . Dune could slightly edge it out.
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2 minutes ago, M37 said:
Setting aside that (virtually) nothing makes between $225 and $325M domestic, March movies don't typical have those kind of legs, because the weekdays are softer (even with Spring Break) and OW is higher as more business is squeezed into it
I think off a ~$76M OW, a $200M+ total is still in play and a solid target, but should not set expectations too much higher than that
Dune II is to me basically Logan, but with less competition ahead of it, or Batman without an early streaming release
Just reminds of the time some were dissapointed by batman ow and numbers but after 2022 and 2023 we look at those numbers with respect.
2023 was a terrible year for established franchise tentpoles.
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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:
Bur we have plenty of example that some movies even with great exit WOM, their legs just aren’t good. MI7, JW4, DnD and TCP all have A cinemascore and >90% exit but couldn’t leg out well. The correlation between WOM and legs just got tricky post-Covid.
No doubt dune 2 is expertly crafted and WOM is guaranteed to be stellar but the movie has some unusual creative choice and character treatment for tentpole blockbusters. I myself love the movie but also have to acknowledge that this isn’t some “crowd-pleaser” that appeal to different demographics. The legs is gonna either “good” or “bad”.
Original with day and date A- didn't have shit legs . Don't know why you would think this would have bad legs with better reception and little to no competition.
Not expecting 3x legs either. 2.7* + legs are good .
Discourse around this movie gets weird at times.
Before first one came out . Some expected this too bomb hard but it made 400m with day and date. OS reception was really good.
Is it your typical crowd pleaser . Ofcorse not, and the first movie wasn't either and look how that turned out with all it's constraints .
You don't open to 75-80m without some appeal or pull.
Didn't love the first movie all that much but this " whole GA didn't love it and found it boring discourse " tiresome . Yeah 8+ on IMDb,90%AS ,A-. Big jump in OW. Says otherwise.
Marvels,Indy5 ,flash couldn't even make that amount on ow.
Dune doesn't have your typical four quadrant tentpole appeal but it's not as niche/ audience limiting as some thought.
This is probably finishing 600M+ WW. Not a lot of crowdpleasers tentpoles reach that amount at box office.
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Finished this about 6 hours ago and that was quite an overwhelming experience.
Have been ehh on chalamet and wasn't sure he would pull it off but my God he absolutely burries it and his turn is so believable . They really pull off spectacularly.
Stilgar was absolutely committed ,he was the perfect religious fanatical zealot and provide a lot of levity to the film. Cinema was just chuckling in most of his scenes.
Chani was solid and acted as voice of reason . The ending with her felt a little tucked on. Wasn't a fan
Fremen were pretty fantastic and sold the whole religion fanaticism.
Rebecca Ferguson stole the show and was eerie and cunning as ever. Bene Gesserit were all really well done here.
Visuals in this film were insane, Dennis is just so good at scaling ,Action is beautifully shot and feels unique and the way the technology esp lasguns works is so different and not your generic styles that have become common and copied from starwars and startrek.
Gielde prime , the best scenes in the movie. I know this "whole it blew my mind" has become common . But this actually blew my mind . Never seen anything like that in film.
Introduction to feyd rautha was bonkers . Just wish we got more of him.
Honestly this move needed about 15 mins more. Because third act felt a little rushed to me and needed a little more breathing space.
Princess irulan and emperor didn't much to do. But didn't bother me. Feel will get more of them in messiah.
9/10. Just wish the ending had more breathing room and would have given this 10/10.
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Well honestly not surprised. Dune kind of scews the 35+ Demo . That crowd just dissapointed us with MI7. TGM was one of those events.
Same with NTTD . Just shocked how that failed to lift off domestically.
Wick 4 to Wonka numbers domestic and around Wonka numbers worldwide which is fine but not exciting as I hoped.
Will have to wait for DM4 , IO2 ,DP3 summer showdown for some juicy numbers.
May is basically wildcard month . They is always a box suprise somewhere . My pick is Garfield.
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13 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
Totally agree with him, I hate critics/cinephile that often bash against a well crafted and produced film due to their weaknesses in story, or known as style over substances, ignoring that movie is a audio-visual medium. We say “I’ve watched or seen a movie” for a reason. Eyes should be foremost, the sensory organ that a movie should please, whether through spectacle like avatar or mad max, or through unique aesthetic style like poor things or Roma.
I respectfully disagree. This is the very reason we have shit and safe scripts in Hollywood. Visual spectacle over story and characters.
They are numerous movies with great visuals and tight and we'll written scripts .
Honestly for the filmography Dennis has , this is strange statement . His movies succeed in both areas .
Infact the best visuals are really good at conveying something about the world ,characters and story.
Story and characters are the bedrock of any movie .
Visuals are a medium to convey a story . The story comes first. Modern blockbusters have switched it around now . Story is their for visual spectacle .
Action movies tend to be the outlier here but even the best ones tend to have a tight script.
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John wick 4 opening is where I will place my flag for now.
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46 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:
Thoughts now that the show is out?
This show is lion king 2019. Visuals and bending are good but the story and characters fall flat .
1 - solid
2- solid but not good as 1st
3-4 . Rushed,shove too many plotlines in this stage,it's where I really turned on the show.
5- underwhelming and bored me to death
6- minus one pet peeve I had ,best episode.
7-8 - some cool action in parts but everything feels rushed , katara and Mr paku storyline was poorly handled and just felt unearned and just did disservice to both characters .
Original show was pretty good at show and tell. This was more tell and less show which just made worlbuilding boring.
6/10 .
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54 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
The definitive Villeneuve ranking before Dune 2:
01. Blade Runner 2049
02. Arrival
03. Prisoners
04. Dune - Part 1
05. Sicario
06. Incendies
07. Enemy
08. Polytechnique
09. August 32nd on Earth
10. MaelströmWhat I have watched.
Arrival
BR2049
Sicario
Dune part 1.
My first viewing of BR2049 in 2017 I gave it a 6 and found it boring. Watched it this year and was blown away.
Sometimes you appreciate and love aspects of a film with time and age. The 2017 casual audience viewer I was expected action packed movie .
Sad this flopped .Hard SCi Fi concept movies don't do well at box office
But dune is bucking the trend and hope it really continues.
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Florence Pugh was asked recently about this. Her response on Twitter wasn't exactly encouraging . This was quite close to being cancelled
Blade movie looks to be in danger though.
Like I said previously . 2025 schedule seems like a terrible way to come off a Deadpool movie that will probably be a success and return to form .
F4 is the only interesting movie and it's basically a wild card.
2025 has the potential to be another terrible year for the MCU.
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29 minutes ago, Porthos said:
It's a CBM thread in 2024, did you expect anything different?
Recency bias is a hell of a drug.
Nah 4 out 6 CBMS bombed in 2023.
There is nothing crazy about the pessimism here.
At the start of 2023 ,thread was pretty hyped for quantumania ,presales were strong ,then the movie happened and the rest was history.
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Love we finally have the cast . Ok with Pedro for reed, Kirby for Sue is dope , haven't seen much of the other two to form an opinion.
The 60s poster is awesome .
But have to say don't really dig the scheduling.
They are going to jump off a successful Deadpool ,they decide to place cap 4 and thunderbolts which have potential to be stinkers . If both turn out bad ,it's a sure way to kill any momentum gained from DP4 and literally hurt F4.
Just pushed thunderbolts to a non eventful November to die off if it's bad .
Are they going to move blade to 2026.
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Trailer numbers were way bigger than expected even 4 Superbowl inflated ones.
25mish previews 145M-170M
Being an r rated movie will limit this.
200M+ even pre covid ain't a slam dunk.
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Just now, HummingLemon496 said:
Maybe it's just me personally but $110-120M is kinda small for this film, a DS2/BP2 level opening would be BIG
Nah some predictions have just way too high.
Had it at 165m and that's at the start of 2023 when things were still relatively good for MCU.
Never bought those 180-200m+ OW predictions.
Right now
120-145m ow.
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47 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Based on Marvel's recent track record. . .I'm more inclined to believe this will be a 50/B than a 90/A personally. I really hope it's latter like Shang-Chi/NWH/BP2/GOTG 3
Expect this to be in line with previous titles. Barring an A+ think it will perform in line with the Deadpool movies. 50-100m added+ at best. 750-850m.
Unless redband trailer really slaps with some major hook and reveals. This looks like another typical Deadpool adventure .
As for the potential cameos. Love the fox x men but they don't and have never had the massive nostalgia poll of tobby/Garfield/goblin/doc orc in NWH.
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Solid teaser
Doesn't show too much but this feels like your typical Deadpool movie. Let see what the full trailer brings . But of what I've seen there is really nothing here to justify some of the heavy 1bn predictions I've been seeing.
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9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Minions 2 did 560m and I think that is a good anchor for this. DM3 did 28% worse than 1st Minions. I am thinking 430-450m for this movie.
1st minions was clearly lightning in the bottle . It was always going to drop off quite big overseas.
Think over or slightly under DM2's 602.7m is the target here. This is clearing minions 2 at the very least IMO.
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Jurassic world dominion OS numbers.
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Really doubt it will be as good either but 200m is ridiculous.
As long as kids dig it . It will do pretty well.
This is not wish or strange world which were originals . This is a sequel to 600m+ box office hit and a streaming juggernaut.
Think frozen 2 or Jurassic world level reception will be enough .
It will need stellar reception for crazy 1 bn numbers.
700m+ Movie IMO.
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2024 should be a solid bounce back year for Disney.
Deadpool 3, IO2 ,Moana 2 are all solid 700m+ grossers at the very least.
Feel Mufasa will do solid businesses in Christmas too.
Though they are going to pump out way more sequels especially on the animation side.
If all goes really well ,2024 could be the year we get 3 animated movies crossing a billion dollar mark. (DM4,IO2,Moana 2) but one can dream.
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21 minutes ago, Grebacio said:
2027 - Ralph 3?
2028 - Encanto 2?
2029 - Tangled 2?
2030- Moana 3?
2031- Frozen 4?
Yeah we getting alot more sequels for now .
Original WDAs are gonna be put on the back burner for now.
Expect a similar result for Pixar too, though not going as hard as WDAs ,some originals will be sprinkled in.
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Is this gonna healthy money ? Yes.
But just not sure about pivoting it from tv version to movie is a good idea. Just wricks of desperacy.
Anyone good to get back to eventful thanksgiving weekends. The last few have been quite dreadful.
2025-2ootopia?
2026- frozen 3?
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42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
Also, those who overemphasize dom gross forget that studios get the largest % only in the first 10 days of dom release not for the whole run. That's why everything is geared towards OW. We like legs but studios would trade legs for 300M OW in a heartbeat cause they get the biggest % then and not 13 or 30 days later. Even if TLM broke even (big if) it wasn't profitable from the theatrical run due to ridiculous budget (that wasn't on the screen).
I thought around 50- 55% of final domestic gross goes back to the studio.
40% os china
China 25%
Using that TLM about 257-270m revenue moved back to the studio which is already past it's 250m production budget . For marketing . Ancillaries , merchandising will cover that in long run.
Yes it's heavy domestic gross definitely helped.
Once again ,some may not realize this . Very few blockbusters are profitable on theatrical alone.
As long as the revenue that comes back to the studio exceeds it's production budget. It has at the very least breaking even most likely or making a profit depending on how much the amount has exceeded the production budget.
You never see trades over harping on the marketing budget. They are not the most reliable but they have more info so will always go with the trades.
Dune: Part Two (2024)
in Review That Movie! (Spoilers Allowed)
Posted
Persnally think chani will return , yeah she is reluctant but I think she will understand and return . But think some tweaks will be made . She definitely won't be 100% team Paul. Can see a scenario where she is in that role of trying to advice Paul and trying to tame his demons or something and probably trying to protect Paul and unfoil whatever machinations irulan will be upto.
Had no problem with her in the film until the ending which felt tucked on .
Adaptation chani has way more urgency .her just becoming team Paul at the end would have been jarring and just contradicted her character.