ThePrinceIsOnFire

The main issue here is that this is just as much of "a disney princess" film as it is a "Old Walt classic" like Dumbo, Pinocchio and Peter Pan, and the latter two were sent straight two disney+ with almost zero promotion. This project is clearly a lower tier movie with a budget that should not be that much bigger than those two, especially if we consider that they had Jude Law and Tom Hanks as headliner there to Gal Gadot's here, so as far as actors go the expenses should not be higher for Snow White. In my opinion, the "marketabilty" of Snow White as a spun of the disney princess brand is the main reason that kept this movie as a theatre release despite TLM's underperformance, otherwise it would have been dumped to disney+ already. But while they surely can make some extra money from this via the disney princess merchandising, it still won't be enough for them to actually care for a larger, more expensive, marketing campaign. Otherwise, they would have released the 30 second teaser already, as we all know that it has been shown in conventions, yet they aren't because they just can't afford to give this a marketing push right now when they have a more lucrative animated film, WISH, that is coming out in november and that has been poorly marketed so far. They will put all the money on Wish's campaign for now, and once they are done with it, start with Snow White, though in a way more muted effort.

There has been an unreliable narrative on the gross of TLM even from the main outlets, especially regarding the OS markets. For instance, people were praising the gross of the movie here in Italy, and yet its result is on par with Dumbo (which was universally labeled as a bomb) but with a lower number of tickets sold (due to inflation). In terms of tickets sold, it was actually the worst seller out of all the disney remakes so far. That just tells you how horribly it actually fared here. The only good markets for TLM were USA (where it failed to reach 300 M but still came close enough, thanks to the large support from the Afro-american communities) UK- AUS (it didn't do great there but good enouh, all things considered) Brazil and the Philippines. Everywhwere else it has basically been a flop or a mild disappointment. Now, for Snow White they really can't go all in on these markets alone, though USA+UK+Australia are certainly VERY important, they can't carry a movie as expensive as SW to success. And I honestly don't see the anglo-world going out their way for SW the same way they did with TLM. I guess we will have to wait and see.

You're right but I don't think that the strike is the reason for the lack of promotion on this one. Despite what many try to claim, nobody expected TLM total gross to be as low as it turned out to be. Disney's heads themeslves were expecting something close to 1 Billion and hoping that it might somoehow even outgross Aladdin WW, so they went full-on with their PR machine on that one, had collabs with literally every big brand out there (from jewels, to make up, to clothing, they even sponsored the Gay Pride here in Rome with a branded float, and character actors for meet and greets), sent out bts specials on every channel, etc... There is just no way they didn't learn from that huge mistake. They've alwys known that they don't have a billion dollar maker in their hands with Snow White, but now they can be sure that they don't even have a 500M dollar maker. They simply can't afford to waste 200+ M dollars on P&A like they did for The little mermaid on this Snow White, they need to keep the costs under 100M in hopes of achieving a breakeven. They will have this play out more like Hunted Mansion marketing wise, or get even less promotion than that.

There has been no marketing at all for this one so far, looks like Disney is trying to save as much money as possible. As for the backlash, it's hard to say just how big it will be and how much it will affect the movie (either positevely or negatively): Peter Pan and Wendy had many progressive changes (a POC Peter, females in the lost boys, feminist Wendy and a POC Tinkerbell) yet it attracted very little backlash; sure that was a disney+ product, but still it went out smoothly. TLM's backlash was huge but Snow White as a character is not an icon the same way Ariel is, and while Zegler isn't white, she still has the same eye/hair colour as the character and, much like Yara Shahidi who played Tinkerbell, has conventionally good looks, so this shouldn't be the same situation. Regardless, the problem with the international markets is that the Asian countries will likely not be interested in this, while here in Europe there is a sense of fatigue towards these disney remakes, plus Snow White is perceived as something that's part folk tale part legend, so the modernized american version of it needs to be good to overcome a certain skepticisim (not that it is a "sacred" material or anyhting, but it's one of the most widely known and beloved tale, much like Kaguya-hime for the Japanese I would say... reworking that while also kind of taking its "european" elements out of it is a tough task).

I mean it wasn't her Evil Queen that was iconic as a character itself, it was more of a combination/lucky coincidence that the Queen's style/attire was very much reminiscent of the golden looks Charlize had for her J'adore ads, which were insanely popular and cemented her as a beauty icon. Much like (in a reverse scenario) Nicole Kidman's Chanel N°5 ad that was a pretty big hit too and was clearly inspired by Moulin Rouge. I do think that Charlize is a terrific actress and is/was exceptionally beautiful though, so I could be a fanboy for sure.

Yes the female gaze is often undermined/ignored, but it can be a draw. Also, I should add to my post that Charlize's Evil Queen was instantly iconic visually thanks to a very smart choice from the movie's costumer designers/producers, since they put her in gold for the most prominent scenes, in a clear reference to the "j'adore" ads that were basically everywhere back in the day (at least in Europe). Charlize's j'adore tv spots (especially the one where she walks in Versailles and meets Grace Kelly, Monroe and Greta Garbo) were so popular that even tv news broadcasts had full clips dedicated to its making of here, everytime a new one would come out it would be a pretty huge thing. Gal Gadot might be beautiful but she is nowhere near as famous and iconic as Charlize was/is...

Snow White and the Huntsman had a super-hot Hemsworth coming from the mega popularity of Thor as a character, possibly the most beautiful blonde actress ever (Sharon Stone and Michelle Pfeiffer would be great picks for that title too, though) at the peak of her career in Charlize Theron, and Kristen Stewart as a teen idol and "it" girl of her era (people might not remember that now, but she, like Watson and Knightley, was everywhere back in the day and had more of a crossover appeal than let's say today's Zendaya, who is mostly known by Gen Z and the twitter crowd). Besides, there was a novelty factor about a Snow White adaptation, since an hollywood big screen one had never been done up to that point; yet despite all of that AND the great marketing that the movie had (with a strong focus on action and the fantasy epic vibes, in hopes of capturing the elusive 15-45 male crowd), it was only a modest success. It would be insane to think that a Snow White adaptation in 2023, with no star power and limited eye candy (there is no Hemsworth for the girls to thirst over here), and a less epic/fantasy mature tone will gross as much as SWATH did back in its day. I also feel like the Cinderella/Little mermaid ceiling is way too high because while also female-skewing they are both more beloved/popular IP than Snow White, and Cinderella had a broad international appeal with its tone/characters being quite faithful to the original, while The Little Mermaid had a stronger domestic support, partially thanks to its inclusive casting choices. Snow White has neither the nostalgia/faithful adaptation going on for it internationally, nor is it likely to generate a large support from the latino community to boost its US box office. Long story short, there is no way this comes close to 500M WW or even 400M WW; mark my words, the best case scenario would be a a Dumbo- like total gross (about 350M WW) but it will almost certainly fall under the 300M WW mark.

DOMESTIC (52.4%) $297,124,688 INTERNATIONAL (47.6%) $269,468,038 WORLDWIDE $566,592,726 Update via Boxofficemojo. Will release on disney+ on September 6, so it looks like the singalong version will be a Philippines only threat. Might close next week theatrically (it only has 90 theatres right now) so it won't reach 300 M in USA. As for international markets, it grossed about 2M in the last 7 days, but Japan has Barbie coming out finally which should affect its gross. Will likely end up at a total gross of 568 M dollars WW.

I agree. Though racebending Ariel certainly did affect the movie's total B.O. (and I would guess about 100-200 M WW were lost on that choice) the more important factor has been the lack of star power. Which is why I believe that Snow White is even in a bigger danger, as it relies on Gal Gadot's fame who is not an estabilished actor out of Wonder Woman or a draw whatsoever. Snow White is a weaker property then TLM or Cinderella, has been already adapted with middling success and seems to be affected by so many changes, with no dwarves, prince and a change in ethnicity for the titular character; and unlike Ariel, where her race didn't really matter for the story to flow, in Snow White's case is going to be so hard to justify a change in her race, since aside from her name and her being "as white as snow" the whole story is very much rooted in Germany with a german estetic and typical buildings etc... IMHO the international public will completely reject Snow White, causing a huge loss for disney. I'm also curious to see how Moana will perform; that one has The Rock but the property itself is not as strong internationally and a remake so soon doesn't really feel justified. My guess: Snow White 250-300 M WW Moana 400-450 M WW.

I would be surprised if this manages to cross the $300M mark Worldwide; I would not be surprised, however, if disney pulls it from theatre and puts it on disney+, or grants it an hybrid release Cruella-like. This movie lacks star power (Gal Gadot being the headliner but far from an estabilished a-lister or draw) apparently deviates so much from the original source (no dwarves, no prince, latina Snow White who fights for her kingdom etc) and is coming at the worst possible time for a live action remake, when most of the international public clearly shows disney remakes- fatigue. Also, the 2 "recent" Snow White hollywood movies (Mirror Mirror and Snow White and the Huntsman) make it really hard for this to be marketed as an "event" of sorts, it really feels like a "been there, done that" situation, much like the endless stream of Peter Pan (flop) adaptations. With all the delays due to the strike there is also a big chance of this having to face some insane competition, which could put it in the true danger zone of a total gross in the Dungeons and Dragons range, at about 200M$ WW.

1.1 mln from Japan which still doesn't have Barbie + 1.6 mln from the other 60+ markets. Should end up in my predicted range (566-570) with 1/2 more M coming from USA and about 3 more from the rest of the world.

It would be interesting to have an updated breakdown from Deadline, since the 560 break-even point was based on a larger Dom to Int ratio... I guess with dom possibly failing to reach 300 M, the break-even should be closer to 575 M WW (taking into account all the big revenues that deadline expects it to generate from PVOD, disney+ home video etc)

560 was my prediction for the weekend, not for its total run 😅 and I was spot on, it barely went over 560 with international numbers coming in (though to be honest I was expecting it to be just slightly under at 559).

I'm actually surprised that it managed a $4M week internationally, I tought it would drop way harder... this most likely means that it had a 2M or so weekend, and about 50% drop which is softer than expected there. Maybe it's due to Japan not having Barbie out just yet. As it stands, I expect about 2-3 more M coming from USA and pheraps 4-6 M internationally for a final total in the range of 566-570 M WW. 270 OS + 300 US roughly... with this result being just about the break even point, whether the movie was a mild disappointement, a slight success or whatever will always be up for discussion, I guess. Though looking just at pure numbers, I doubt that any studio wishes to invest 1 dollar just to get that very same dollar back after 5 years (very long development process here, with covid and everything). I mean, a 1.01$ return on a 1$ investement (1%profit) should not be worth the effort...

Deadline's $560M break-even already includes everything listed except for spin-offs and non-promotional merchandising. Anyway DOM it fell an estimated 71 Per cent this weekend to 687K income, so it turns out my prediction was even generous @1Robert1 ... it might not add 4M after all, but rather something like 2-3, thus ending in the 298-299 range. Internationally there's no update yet, but looking at the datas from the main countries it fell even harder. Might barely go over 560 M but could also miss it just by a hair, from the way things are going.

I'm not comparing day to day but rather similiar incomes/theatres average Aladdin at Week 11 (days 74-78): Aug 5 Monday 7 $360,179 -43.9% -21% 1,370 $262 $350,837,256 74 Aug 6 Tuesday 7 $473,730 +31.5% -37.2% 1,370 $345 $351,310,986 75 Aug 7 Wednesday 6 $363,795 -23.2% -29% 1,370 $265 $351,674,781 76 Aug 8 Thursday 7 $280,486 -22.9% -37.5% 1,370 $204 $351,955,267 77 Aug 9 Friday 15 $227,660 -18.8% -62.9% 615 $370 $352,182,927 78 Little Mermaid at current week (days 53-55) Jul17 Monday 10 -...$348,879 -56.9% -45.1% 1.6155 ..$216 ..............$294,314,872 .53 Jul 18 Tuesday 10 $480,649 +37.8% -27% 1,615 $297 $294,795,521 54 Jul 19 Wednesday 9 $373,485 -22.3% -28% 1,615 $231 $295,169,006 55 Little mermaid will also drop to about 630 theatres on friday. Alddin ended up with 355 M, so that's why I say that TLM should add about 4 M if it follows the same path. As for international, I have no idea... I guess Barbie will damage it this weekend, but I think it really depends on how it plays in Japan from here on.

DOMESTIC (53.1%) $295,169,006 INTERNATIONAL (46.9%) $260,304,742 WORLDWIDE $555,473,748 Per B.O. Mojo. Might end up just slightly above deadline's break-even point ($560 M); should add 4M$ in USA (if it follows Aladdin's path) and I guess 5M$ more Internationally (most of it coming from Japan)?

DOMESTIC (53.1%) $295,169,006 INTERNATIONAL (46.9%) $260,304,742 WORLDWIDE $555,473,748 Per B.O. Mojo. Might end up just slightly above deadline's break-even point ($560 M); should add 4M$ in USA (if it follows Aladdin's path) and I guess 5M$ more Internationally (most of it coming from Japan)?

It's about putting things in perspective. The disney live action brand is a staple here in Italy, every and each live action (bar the covid ones) remake has had a gross of about 15M euros or more, with Dumbo being the lowest bar at 11M. The little mermaid as an animated movie might not be as popular as Aladdin or The Lion King, but it's still well ahead in popularity if compared to something like Dumbo. If an original movie had a gross of 10+M euros, like let's say Everything Everywhere all at once, then sure it would be a huge success. But this is basically perceived as a "sequel" in a franchise, much like anyhthing in the Marvel or Star wars universe. So yes, it is a flop given the expectations, the circumstances and the brand it belongs to. Aladdin itself was labeled as a disappointement after it failed to reach 20 M euros, which was the expected outcome given the previous performances of comps like Cinderella and Beauty and the Beast. The live action fatigue is pretty much a real thing if you look at the datas. I might be "ragging" on it but I'm the only one is actually providing the numbers to comparable titles, which is how a box office analysis should be done. But if you or anyone else think that being the live action remake with the lowest number of total spectators isn't a flop then what can I do. I simply think that we can't apply the same rules to every market. This movie is flopping hard in so many markets that it might seem succesful here in Italy by comparison, but how can we forget that Italy is a family-friendly fantasy-friendly market? Even the nutcracker and the four realms almost hit 10 M euros here, and had more spectators than the little mermaid (due to inflaction).

No I'm still here, I have been super busy lately. Update: 220k For TLM day 13 here in Italy. Total gross so far : 8.728.724 M Euros. Comp at day 13: - 2,8M Euros VS Aladdin (ended its run with 15.5 M) - 400K vs Maleficent (ended its run with 14 M) + 900K vs Dumbo (ended its run with 11M) Some nice holds for Little mermaid in the past week, mostly thanks to the festive friday. It's still WAY below Aladdin (a stunning -25% at this point), below Maleficent (even more impressive considering that Maleficent is almost 10 years old) and a bit ahead of Dumbo which, however, was released in late march and had a big easter bump on its day 17, which TLM is not going to match. It's still on course for a total tally of 10-13M Euros, depending on the weather in the upcoming weeks. As you can see, still a flop (unless we consider selling LESS tickets than freaking DUMBO a success). I might add that it's also about 40% down VS BATB and 65% down VS TLK at the same point, just to give you all the complete picture of how strong the other live actions were here in Italy and how weak this actually is. It's also faring worse than Cinderella, of course.

Thanks for the hard work. Will you make one for South America and Europe too? It would be interesting to see!

Which is an amazing feat considering that its gross so far here is lower than Dumbo, which ended up with 11M euros and was the least succesful live action remake. So yeah, it's a huge flop here but apparently it's even more of a flop everywhere else.

This is a flop worldwide, no one can deny that; however, the domestic gross is quite ok, all things considered. The legs will either make it or break it and it's very unlikely to "rule the summer" but could pheraps gather a very respectable $300M+ total gross.

So this is outpacing Aladdin in France, indeed. I guess inflaction made ticket prices way higher so we are going to see quite a bit of increase in the money total. Weird that it's flopping everyhwere in EU but not in France.

Indeed. Also, these movies have a very strong built in fanbase, so it's quite worrisome that we are already seeing such a low increase for the weekend in EU. Many movies are coming in the next weeks, the legs won't be good. Also, in places like Italy, the box office diminishes the further Summer goes, as people rush to the beaches here and cinema season basically ends in early June.