Chrysaor

I don't think I'd go as high as $200, but yeah I was thinking $160 MM is pretty locked and there's a good chance of $170-175. If you use the Fantastic Beasts comp (I know, different times) then that'd actually bring it to just over $160 MM (FBaWtFT made another 2.81 x's it's 3rd weekend gross), but I think that this will continue to have softer drops than that film. In either case, I think this will end up being a decent hit for Lionsgate and the fact that they tend to be really smart with their ancillary windows will help too. I liked the movie well enough, but more than anything want it to do well for the sake for its two young stars. They were both so good in it that I feel like they deserve to have this raise their profile as much as possible, and heaven knows that Rachel Zegler could do with as big of a hit as possible after the underperformances of WSS and SFotG.

I think you're underestimating it. I think it'll probably hit $160 MM. With the lack of competition this coming weekend, it should have another stellar hold, and I agree with earlier posts that it should still be in wide release by Christmas day. Those winter vacation days won't help it as much as something like Wonka or Migration, but they'll definitely still make a difference.

I really think that BOSS is going to have comparatively good holds for at least a couple of weeks (maybe until Wonka hits). I saw it on Tuesday and there were a grand total of four empty seats in the theater. I was trying to remember the last time I went to a showing at our local theater that was that packed... probably No Way Home. I realize this is all anecdotal, but to me this really feels like a textbook case of there being a potential audience for the film, but them being on the fence about seeing it (perhaps in part, because of being burned by other films they were looking forward to but feel didn't deliver), and now that positive word of mouth is taking effect, more and more of those fence sitters are seeing it and then spreading the word themselves. I also understand that in many cases a B+ Cinemascore is nothing to write home about, but in this case maybe it's enough.

Since the RT score has been steadily rising throughout the day, I think it's fairly likely that it finals in the low 60's rather than dropping back down. The real question, though, is how substantially does that help? I mean, for an unknown IP that people are on the fence about, I can definitely see simply having that red tomato next to its name (as opposed to a green blotch) being a determining factor. But for an established franchise like this, where people know what it is and are simply not interested... does that lead to A ) where 60-63% just isn't high enough to change their mind? or, B ) where they see the red tomato and enough people tune out the number behind it that it makes a big* difference? Honestly, for GA's, I can see it going either way. (*Notice that I am literally saying "big" with an asterisk next to it, so no, I don't mean enough to drastically change the weekend. Just enough where the result is noticeably different from if it didn't have the tomato, whether that means another $1-2 MM over the course of the weekend, or $100-200k beats me.)

With J. Edgar finally behind us, that means that all of DiCaprio's theatrically released films in the past decade have grossed over $100 MM domestically. People can talk about The Rock being the biggest movie star in the world all they want, but nobody has a track record stateside like Leo. (EDIT: Although Sandra Bullock comes pretty close. All of Leo's films have grossed $116+ over the past decade and all of Bullock's have grossed $105+ with the notable exception of Our Brand Is Crisis)

I had forgotten that Death on the Nile's 2nd weekend was President's Day weekend. If it hadn't been for the accompanying Sunday boost from that (more adults going to theaters on Sun because they had the next day off, too -- in fact DotN's 2nd Sun only say a 2% drop from it's first Sun) then AHiV likely would've likely had a higher 2nd weekend. And it's having a better 2nd week in general. It's 2nd Tue is +11% over DotN's and it's 2nd Wed is +6%. Overall, AHiV is pacing less than 2% behind DotN after 13 days. It'll be really interesting to see how it holds this weekend.

Of course, you're right, it's not an apples to apples comparison. However, AHiV also missed out on Russia/CIS and Ukraine altogether, whereas DotN had grossed $6.5 MM between those markets after its second weekend. Overall, AHiV's global total after its second weekend is a little under 5% behind where DotN was after its. If AHiV continues DotN at that rate (again, admittedly not apples to apples) it'd final at $130.9. It absolutely could final less (although $100 MM feels like overcompensation to me). Some majors are pacing behind DotN at this point, and others are pacing ahead, so we'll see if the gap widens or shrinks after next weekend. And yeah, in theory, they absolutely should be able to make these on $30 MM budgets. I'm almost as fascinated by actors' salary histories as I am with by the box office, and it's not uncommon at all for popular-but-not-quite-box-office draw level actors to take $250k-300k paydays for roles in ensemble films. They should be able to cast one of these for $5 MM (with half of that going to Branagh) pretty easily. They could probably even do it for $4 MM if they stuck to a lot of once-upon-a-time box office draws that the target demo would be familiar with (and probably excited to see) but haven't done much lately (in fact, give me a couple of does and I'll throw together a sample cast). With a $5 MM cast, you should, in theory, be able to do the film for $25 MM total pretty easily as long as you stayed away from expensive location shootings, visual effects, etc. and didn't have any abnormally large expenses, for example, if they had a crazy deal where they had to pay the Christie estate $20 MM a film.

Absolutely agree on all accounts. Hopefully Disney has the sense to see this too.

Deadline is estimating AHiV to have had a $6.3 MM 2nd weekend. This puts it at ~$25,353,000 domestically. It's currently at ~$46,200,000 internationally. It's worth noting that Deadline initially reported it at $5.6MM for the weekend before increasing to $5.8, $6.0, and $6.3 respectively. This would seem to indicate that walk-ups are pretty good, and it won't be too surprising if it comes in a little higher once actuals are released (my best guess is $6.5). DoTN earned another $20,339,431 after it's 2nd weekend (or 3.10 x's it's 2nd weekend). If we assume that AHiV has a similar lifespan then that'll put it's domestic final at ~$44.9 (or ~$50.7 if the 2nd weekend ends up being $6.5). Internationally, DoTN's total was 1.833 x's it's total after its 2nd weekend. If we apply that to AHiV (again, obviously working with current estimates rather than actuals) then that takes us to a $84,684,000 total. Combining these two gives us a $130-135 WW total. I feel like that'd be pretty encouraging for Disney. DotN finalized at $137.3 and once VoD and streaming was factored in it was considered profitable enough to warrant a sequel. With AHiV costing $40 MM less a similar WW gross would likely more than justify a fourth go around. It also shows Disney that, while nowhere near the gross of the first film, the franchise appears to be pretty consistent financially and as long as they keep the budgets in check, the franchise could be a reliable moneymaker that also helps expand the appeal of Disney+ to older audiences.

I thought there were several pretty solid performances in the film, but yes, Tina Fey is absolutely the MVP. His 21st century directing filmography has been surprisingly miss (Love's Labors Lost, Sleuth, Shadow Recruit, Artemis Fowl, and depending on your mileage, MotOE, DotN, Thor 1 & Belfast), but his acting filmography has had some real bright spots during that same time. For instance, I thought that Tenet was a letdown overall, but Branagh as the main villain was hands-down the best thing about it, and his performance was so uncharacteristic that it literally took me over half the film to recognize it was him, despite him not being in heavy make-up or prosthetics or anything.

The only Wimsey I'm familiar with is Whose Body? But I think eventually introducing crossover characters like that would be a great way to keep vitality in the series. Years ago, when we realized some Holmes material was in the public domain, my brother and I came up with the idea to do a story set across two time periods where Holmes and Poirot are both working to solve the same case. It was kind of convoluted, but Holmes solves his portion and helps lay the groundwork for another great detective (Poirot) to solve it when a recurrence of the crime happens decades later. Each chapter would switch between detectives.

So presuming we get another one of these, which book or story would you hope they tackle next? If they keep filming one every three years, then we could get two more before Branagh hits 70. In which case, I'd like to see them tackle the heavy hitters: Roger Ackroyd and ABC Murders then, if those are successful, let a 70-ish Branagh wrap up with Curtain and then they can reboot/do a prequel series beginning with The Mysterious Affair at Styles.

I mean I don't think it's going to hit *that* high either, but to be fair everything about this "movie" is unprecedented. Despite the immensely dedicated effort of numerous people on here, we're really just grasping in the dark with this one.

I totally get them greenlighting an Expendables 4, but the fact that somebody somewhere greenlighted it with a $100 MM budget is absolutely mind-boggling.

If you end up being a fan, I'd recommend checking out the 70's version of Murder on the Orient Express, still the very best Hercule Poirot film in my opinion and has an absolutely stacked cast.

Yeah, I think so. If this one experiences the same sort of holds as the previous film then it will wind up with a nearly identical WW gross. Plus the previous one was a major hit on Hulu, which supposedly factored pretty heavily into the decision to make this one. The next few weeks will ultimately determine its fate, but yeah I think there's a decent chance we get a fourth.

Box Office comparison of Death on the Nile vs. A Haunting in Venice: USA $12.8 -----> $14.5 MM +13% UK $2.6 -----> $2.6 MM +0% China $5.8 MM -----> $2.4 MM -59% Italy $2.1 MM -----> $2.1 MM +0% France $2.1 MM -----> $1.7 MM -19% Spain $942,000 -----> $1.2 MM +27% Korea $1.15 -----> $1.0 MM -13% Japan $1.07 MM -----> $900k -16% Germany $1.252 MM -----> $800k -36% Mexico $398k -----> $700k +76% Australia $1.17 -----> 700k -40% Once you back out China (which wasn't included in DotN's opening weekend) then the international OW's for the two are remarkably similar: $20.7 -----> $20.3. Assuming that the holds are similar we could be looking at something like this: DOM $14.5 x's 3.54 = $51.33 CHI $2.4 x's 1.85 = $4.44 INT $20.3 x's 3.9 = $79.17 For a worldwide total of $134.94 MM vs. DotN's $137.31. So I think that it's likely that this ends very similar to the previous one, possibly slightly lower. However, even if that's the case, it'll definitely be more profitable since according to Deadline AHiV cost $40 MM less than DotN. Hopefully it'll do as well or better on VOD & streaming as DotN and we 'll end up getting a fourth.

Below's a comparison of Death in the Nile vs. A Haunting in Venice's opening weekend grosses both domestically and in the latter's top 10 foreign markets. For me, one of the big questions was whether the inclusion of Camille Cottin (who's starred or co-starred in a number of French theatrical hits), Riccardo Scamarcio (who's recently starred in some very successful Netflix films in Italy), and Michelle Yeoh (who's never been a big box office draw in China but tapped into a groundswell of support there after her Best Actress Oscar win) would improve the film's openings in those markets. The short answer is, unfortunately no. Italy held even, France dropped 19% which might largely be due to going up directly against the opening weekend of The Nun II, and China dropped a whopping 59%. I think the lesson from this is not at all to avoid an international cast, but rather when you cast international actors, you really ought to cast ones that are legitimate box office draws in their home countries. Some bright spots including the 13% domestic increase as well as a 27% increase in Spain and a 76% increase in Mexico. I'm not sure offhand what to attribute the bump in Spanish language countries to. Death on the Nile's offshore opening weekend didn't include China, so if you back that out, it's roughly $20.7 (DotN) vs. $20.3 (AHiV). So we'll see how holds go. Based on this limited dataset, it looks like WW final might end up slightly under DotN's (hopefully I'm wrong), but again we'll see how holds go, and either way it's bound to be more profitable considering that the budget was $30-40 MM less than DotN's. USA $12.8 -----> $14.5 MM. +13% UK $2.6 -----> $2.6 MM +0% China $5.8 MM -----> $2.4 MM -59% Italy $2.1 MM -----> $2.1 MM +0% France $2.1 MM -----> $1.7 MM -19% Spain $942,000 -----> $1.2 MM +27% Korea $1.15 -----> $1.0 MM -13% Japan $1.07 MM -----> $900k -16% Germany $1.252 MM -----> $800k -36% Mexico $398k -----> $700k +76% Australia $1.17 -----> 700k -40%

The performances really were quite good all around. What surprised me even more was Michael Green's writing. I feel like a few of the plot beats were a tad clunky (the monologue at the party about the building's history felt sorta infodumpy, although whoever that actor was delivered it very well), but the character writing was very strong. Definitely noticeably stronger than the previous two films which surprised me since he's been the only credited screenwriter on all three films. The scene with the sibling's take about their dream of coming to Missouri was one of many standouts to me. I feel like Green was really incredibly savvy in how he balanced the cast and made sure to give what felt like every single character one or more moments to really flex their acting chops and all of those moments felt completely earned and organic. Fey and Branagh had great chemsitry, and this to me, felt like the film where Branagh finally slipped effortlessly into his character. I don't know if the film will stick out enough to get Best Cinematography or Best Original Score Oscar noms, but yes, both were major standouts as well. I sure hope James Prichard (one of the film's executive producers) is right and we get a fourth one.

I mean, to each their own, but I saw it last night and would comfortably describe it as a "horror movie" as well as a mystery. I wouldn't compare it to the Conjuring, but I think something like Sixth Sense wouldn't be the worst comparison in the world.

Horror movies just generally tend to have lower audience scores. To use to recent examples, Candyman and Nope both had B cinemascores but only only have 72% and 69% audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes. Compare this to something like the Flash, which got a B cinemascore but has an 83% RT audience score. I imagine if this had leaned more into a traditional whodunnit and less into horror it probably would've gotten at least a slight audience ratings boost just based on genre.

I really think the marketing of this movie was a horrible mistake that killed the interest of its target demo. Older audiences are typically turned off by horror movies. I know they wanted to attract a younger audience, and it appears to an extent that they did, but at the expense of their previous demographic. It's also absolutely crazy that the trailers don't make it immediately clear that this is a Poirot or Christie film. IMO, something to the effect of "Kenneth Branagh is Agatha Christie's Hercule Poirot in <insert film title>" should appear at the top of every single poster and internet ad, just like they would for a Bond film, because the character and the author are the draw here, not some generic horror-sounding title with the faces of a bunch of actors audiences may or may not recognize.

Ah, well could've been better, could've been worse. A "B" is pretty solid for a horror film. What do we think, will this still leg out better than DotN regardless of Cinemascore since it doesn't have to contend with Omicron?

Opening day in France was 31,313 admissions vs. Death on the Nile's 39,799. I admit, I wasn't familiar with Camille Cottin before her casting in this, but she's had leading or co-leading roles in several French box office hits and the French media definitely consider her to be a major star. So, it seemed reasonable to hope that her inclusion would boost the French box office. Bummer.