von Kenni

For those who are interested, above info on how accurate and consistent MTC1 was with Dune and how WB most likely rounded up previews. Looks like the final, finals were $60k higher with Fri+previews (adjust my previews with that) and rest few thousand off (not making all these anew either such small differences).

I wonder how much Monday could be surpressed if people want to make sure that they see it on PLFs and if that somehow limits it in the areas where are most demand for Dune. I'm trying to be ready if it's lower than expected.

Real preview numbers based on WB estimates today and how accurate MTC1 was with Dune WB estimates not surprisingly corrected Sat number a bit down to lower the drop which eventually was 24.6% for Sunday which was in my 80% confidence area seen at the bottom table from yesterday but because of using the inaccurately reported Sat numbers my lower end was at $82.7M instead of $82.5M which it would have been with correctly reported Sat number. All-in-all, math is beautiful and MTC1 turned out to be very accurate but reported numbers were slightly off and they most likely rounded a lot the preview numbers from $11.47M (+-0.1M) to $12M. Today reported numbers: Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Feb 29, 2024 P $12,000,000 3,400 $3,529 $12,000,000 Mar 1, 2024 1 $32,150,000 4,071 $7,897 $32,150,000 1 Mar 2, 2024 1 $28,700,000 -11% 4,071 $7,050 $60,850,000 2 Mar 3, 2024 1 $21,650,000 -25% 4,071 $5,318 $82,500,000 3 Using the WB Sat estimate, MTC1 was just 0.9% off which reveals $20.68M true Friday (+-0.15M) and gives exactly the reported Sunday numbers with 81% walkups pace compared to Sat (I had the low-end at 80%), i.e. 19% worse. Reasons for this can be: Naturally less walkups for later showtimes in the evening due to the next day being a workday. Saturday might have been somewhat frontloaded (amazing 39% jump!) due to people (older and families) preferring to see it on Saturday rather than Friday evening after a long work week plus PLFs were more available throughout the Saturday than cramming everything to Friday evening. Other? --please chip in, especially the experienced trackers on this forum, but anyone else too All-in-all the Sunday number was off by $1.15M based on WB estimates which wasn't a surprise even if in the end it didn't reach my and Keysersoze's anticipated $2-3M correction partly due to the over-estimated industry numbers on Sat and Fri+Previews and partly with walkups pace hitting the lower-end of what was expected. Even though I might have lost in my personal bet of the high-end $85M in that 80% confidence level (even though they were based on the industry estimates too) my cool-headedness a bit, I feel good about how it turned out after they corrected the numbers hitting the low-end and how MTC1 was very consistent in predicting the outcomes and revealing the walkup pace. Yesterday's estimates using the reported industry estimates that we now know were slightly off as a comparison

I shouldn't even reply to your misleading and deceiving post but @Daxtreme had such a perfect description of what you have been consistently doing that speaks volumes: ---- Concern trolls say they are fans of something, "oh I so want it to be good, but..." The "but" is key here. They're always "concerned" about the success of something but "hey, I'm a big fan, I'm just concerned!" Then if you stalk their messages you realize that the only coherent line of thought throughout is that they actually want it to fail. AKA, the opposite of what they're saying. They only act like an ally because being an upfront hater is ill-perceived, especially in close-knit communities, so concern trolling it is (it's more subtle, harder to spot)

Yeah, not exactly meant either that it's a good comp for Dune exactly the reasons you mentioned but wanted to throw it there when you mentioned it as a fun tidbit. The Batman might be closest as another post covid Marxh release and closer demos to Dune. It did 2.76x and I think around 2.7x should be floor for Dune but I would be surprised if it wouldn't beat The Batman and cautiously already see it has a good chance to go over 3x. But it's easy to get speed blindness with just one weekend so far which isn't even over yet...

Talking about RPO, it had 3.3x DOM legs in 2018 and was released in the latter part of March. The best legs since 2018. Had a bit younger demos than Dune but there's no reason why Dune can't go over 3x legs-wise if the WOM, repeat viewings, and PLF-fueled ATP kick in. How much beyond 3x? I think next weekend can help us a lot on that.

Dune weekend actuals and Sunday estimates based on MTC1 1) I compared reported Sat actuals to MTC1 estimate and found out that MTC1 numbers need to be adjusted 1.4% upward. 2) Using the adjustment we can deduct the true Friday to be $20.79M and Previews+EA $11.56M (they rounded it to $12M). 3) Based on ATP change from Dune 2 Sat previews to actuals I estimated Sunday ATP to be 1.5% lower than Saturday if the relative walkups pace is the same. If it is lower, I adjusted the ATP slightly upward and likewise downward if it is higher. 4) Relative walkups pace compared to Dune 2 Saturday. 5) OW estimates paced on different walkups paces (Sunday estimates above). The reported $20.3M Sunday would need worse walkups than on Friday. I see midpoint around 90%+ walkups pace and highly likely (80% confidence level) that we're looking at $83-85M OW and $84M with $22.8M Sunday -21% drop as the midpoint $83M OW would mean -24.5% Sun drop $85M OW -17.6% drop

Dune weekend actuals and Sunday estimates based on MTC1 1) I compared reported Sat actuals to MTC1 estimate and found out that MTC1 numbers need to be adjusted 1.4% upward. 2) Using the adjustment we can deduct the true Friday to be $20.79M and Previews+EA $11.56M (they rounded it to $12M). 3) Based on ATP change from Dune 2 Sat previews to actuals I estimated Sunday ATP to be 1.5% lower than Saturday if the relative walkups pace is the same. If it is lower, I adjusted the ATP slightly upward and likewise downward if it is higher. 4) Relative walkups pace compared to Dune 2 Saturday. 5) OW estimates paced on different walkups paces (Sunday estimates above). The reported $20.3M Sunday would need worse walkups than on Friday. I see midpoint around 90%+ walkups pace and highly likely (80% confidence level) that we're looking at $83-85M OW and $84M with $22.8M Sunday -21% drop as the midpoint $83M OW would mean -24.5% Sun drop $85M OW -17.6% drop

As I mentioned in my earlier post, these are skewed a lot from Deadline's PostTrak reporting from Friday: Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 22% Hispanic and Latino, 13% Black, 10% Asian and 7% other. The above numbers are more in line with Dune 1 and the BoxOfficePro numbers seem bonkers. I don't know if those numbers could be already from previews or something but maybe we'll have better clarity on this early in the week.

Just realized these div demos. Seems off. PostTrak had much better and more diverse than with Dune 1. There's something fishy about these two different datasets.

Dune 1 demos (Saturday AM PostTrak report): Demo turnout were Men over 25 (44%), Females over 25 (26%), Men under 25 (17%), and Females under 25 (13%), with guys under 25 giving the pic its best grade of 87% on PostTrak. Older demo here at 21% over 45, but also the moviegoing demo of 18-34 at 55% showing up. Diversity demos were 55% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic and Latino, 9% African American and 9% Asian. -‐--- I'm surprised that male-female skew was just 61-39. So Dune 2 isn't far off. The diversity demos for Dune 2 were more diverse, Caucasians dropping to 48% and especially African American going up. I don't see why Zendaya, more indepth human relationships, and other prominent women roles in Part 2 and in the promos couldn't increase at least slightly demos for female audiences. That 59% would already be great.

Do you have at hand Dune 1's number on this?

Like with Dune 1 these OS estimates will go up too with actuals. Most likely the bigger than expected Sunday will be happening almost everywhere. Total will be closer to $185M if not more.

I was thinking the same. Could exhibits have data from yesterday on this that would imply better show up with women compared to Friday (or when the original PostTrak data was collected). It's better than Part 1 too and this can also grow the legs.

Most likely. If the reported previews, Friday, and Saturday are accurate or close to it, almost certainty that estimated Sunday is a joke. Presales difference between Saturday and Sunday imply 17.7% drop if the walkups are same pace as on Saturday. Presales is already more than half of all sales so to reach levels like 30% drop would need much worse walkups than on Friday or Thursday which were considerably worse than Saturday already. It might not reach that 17.7% drop if Sunday evening is much slower than Saturday evening but if the accelerating effect of WOM is there it can go to that 15% drop that Charlie entertained as well. 20% drop could be cautious estimate with this data. MTC1 tracking data has actually been pretty good if you adjust it upward. Friday was $20.5m according to it and Saturday $28.3M. I'll make a table on this later today but I can already say that trusting the reported numbers before today's estimate the final will increase for sure and highly likely around $2-3M (like keysersoze already said) ending close to $84M. Oppenheimer will be toast for sure. That's it for JW4 comparisons. Although I'm sure some will bable about it until Dune shows its legs.

To add some context, Legendary funded 75% of Dune 1 and WB 25%. After BR2049 Villeneuve told in an interview that he thought his career with big budget Hollywood movies was over and genuinely felt grateful and surprised to get a new opportunity with Dune.

Good point. Maybe caution at least against much better walkups than on Saturday. Maybe that and the increasing WOM evens it up and the walkups stay "just" as good as on Saturday keeping it on track for $84M. Even if it's lousy as on Friday, it would be just closer to $83M. The presales are just so strong. Maybe as rule of thumb here, if walkups are Bad like Friday: $83M Like on Saturday: $84M Following Saturday's upward trajectory: $85M Accelerating from Saturday: $86M The joker is how accurate that reported $32.2M is and if Sat is around $28.3M or $29M (more likely). Joker can add or remove $1M. So with the information we have it'll be between $82M-$87M.

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals. Saturday walkups were 163% of Dune 1's vs. Thu 133%, Fri 128%. Overall ended 195% compared to Dune 1 with 5.8% ATP increase (these are MTC1 numbers so actuals can slightly differ). Sunday presales is 210028 and Friday was 188677 for Dune Part 2. If walkups will be as lousy as on Friday Sun might be looking around $22.8M (19.4% drop) but if they are like on Saturday, then Sunday is $23.3M. Sun/Sat presale comp for Dune Part 2 expects 17.7% drop for Sunday. If the WOM works and walkups are even better relative terms for tomorrow, then the drop can be even smaller. With expected values based on MTC1 and reported Fri+previews we're looking OW $32.2M+$28.3M+23.3M=$83.8M. With MTC1 slightly likely underperforming the actuals can be $0.5-1M more. IF Sunday walkups are even better, it can get to $85-86M region. If I would bet, I'd bet $85M with this information. About next weekend, with current tracking it looks likely that Dune stays number one and Kung-Fu Panda opens second but too early to lock anything in. As we saw with Dune's tracking, much can change in short time...

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals. More about the Sunday below

Whaaaat!? There's a board game? And I missed it. Is it any good? E.g. comparing to Settlers of Catan - Cities and Knights?

My money is on Charlie. He's saying that they are projecting from the wrong baseline Saturday actuals, i.e. that Friday is $20.2M because the reported previews total was $12M and reported Friday with previews $32.2M (32.2-12=20.2). Charlie and some of the other trackers conclude that the $12M is a rounded number and the exact number is some hundreds of thousands less and true Friday is higher than $20.2M, i.e. Deadline's and Gitesh's expected baselines for Saturday projection. My (amateur) reading of MTC1 is aligned with Charlie's estimates as well and MTC1 was pretty spot on with Dune Part 1 too. As a side note, even with $28M Sat, $80M OW is a slam dunk. Highly unlikely that Part 2 would get around 28-30% Sunday drop based on its weekend performance and presales.

This would mean that Dune is more likely than not staying number one next weekend too IF the WOM has at least a sizable part on today's bump and it's not totally other factors.

Ah, you mean Part 2 Fri and Sat preview numbers that suggest 35% bump?