von Kenni

Yeah, I finally saw Dunr Part 1 in IMAX a week and a half ago. It was breathe taking and the best viewing experience of the five times I've seen it. It is a movie that gets better and needs more viewing times to process it. What I read from Part 2 reactions, it is even more of that and if there is that Batman -> Dark Knight jump, I can imagine repeat views to multiple handedly compareded to Part 1. Plus the buzz that people who didn't like Part 1 so much will enjoy Part 2. It can lure them and new GA people after the opening for second and third weekend.

On T-4 Dune clearly dropped from Oppy's pace but then again, if it was a holiday when Oppy opened this could be expected at this stage even if Dune tracks it well with actual ticket sales down the line.

If I remember right, they had some collaboration with him in Dune marketing. That reply tweet itself doesn't have huge views yet at least. So, helps, but unless he does a video reviewing it and promoting it, I doubt the effect will knock anyone's socks off.

What's your estimate on Dune's IM currently based on MTC numbers @keysersoze123? Is it closer to 8 and can it even be above that?

I need to dive deeper into this. Without promising, I'll try to have a clearer picture for this during the weekend. My head is in Arrakis right now plus I have on my list to do an international BO estimates and updated budget breakdown for Dune during the weekend too. That said, I loved Oppenheimer and will happily dig deeper into this. Ghosted shooting schedule would help of course. 3 days of shooting and $3m in the US for Oppenheimer is in the ballpark (without big set building) but devil is in the details. Hold my beer and wait a couple days.

T-5: 185.8k T-4: 211.3k T-3: 261.3k T-2: 318.4k T-1: 395.9k T-0: 572.7k Those are the rest of the Oppy presale numbers. So today's target is that 185.8k or more to keep up with the Joneses. So far last days have been pretty much on par.

I think we can debate as much as we want about the size of the review bump but we shouldn't either overestimate how aware the average or potential audience for Dune is about it. There's so much content coming from all channels for us that the scale is almost unimaginable compared to 10, not to say 20 years ago. So getting a wide spread media coverage in traditional media and social media will definitely help people to be even aware of Part two. But how much that helps in a form of review bump to the comps that are tracked is debatable.

Checking Part 1 RT. After 27 reviews it had 85% and after 31 83% which was the ultimate number after 400+ reviews. Maybe at the top the drop can be bigger but can we in any case expect this to end between 93-95%?

Better that way and the be pleasantly surprised.

Almost on par with Oppy. Tomorrow is premier. I hope that accelerates it more.

96% 73 fresh 3 rotten (Ehrlich not twice)

I might have some calculations on it somewhere but e.g. here are some of the numbers: https://bombreport.com/yearly-breakdowns/2017-2/blade-runner-2049/ When you add those costs and estimated studio overhead costs, video costs, TV/streaming rights, and Home Entertainment revenue, that $80m makes sense without a $185m budget. But I agree that there is a lot of ambiguity when these are reported and studious try to sugarcoat them one way or another. I wouldn't hold my breath until next year if Deadline does the top BO tournament breakdown. Even then I'd mainly trust their revenue numbers but I wouldn't take their production budgets at face value when it comes to rebates. $190m would be reasonable for Dune Part 2 and I agree with you on the movie budgets generally but when we talk about individual movies it varies a lot or studios, and that's why I did my breakdowns when we found the Hungary budget numbers. We can pretty well with those and other factors in that breakdown estimate the real costs. E.g. cast and other above-the-line costs are smaller than in everyday Bond or MCU movies. Like Oscar Isaac, there are movies that you do if you need a new house (Star Wars) and then there are movies that you do for other reasons like playing an interesting character or working with a special director (Villeneuve, Nolan). You could look at Oppenheimer's cast and say that no way they had a $100m budget. Sure, based on mediocre sources Timothy Chalamet's salary rose from around $2m to $3m from Part 1 to 2 but he and the rest of the cast as well as Villeneuve, producers, and Zimmer will have residues and some participation backend compensation. Reportedly Chalamet's ultimate compensation from Part 1 was $4m after them. Anyway, on a high level, I agree but when it comes to this specific film production, the numbers and sources point to different conclusions. I did some of those calculations here on the forum for TLM, I think Indy 5 at least in parts, Flash, and some others. Otherwise I've done excel exercises where I've compared my numbers with the numbers that have afterward reported for Avatar 2, TGM, and some others (at least Deadline did some breakdowns on them). But fun it is for sure (call me weird if you want).

I guess you missed that original breakdown with source links to breakdowns and especially accurate cost and rebate info for Part 1 and 2 from Hungary. You can see the post here. I welcome you to find new sources to make it more accurate. E.g. producer compensation, story rights, and VFX share in Hungary budget vs. traditional production costs is not completely clear. Also how much of the above the line costs or pre- and post-production exactly can be attributed to Hungary budget can be digged up more. If not most, then a sizable junk of pre-production costs at least are in that Hungary budget based on Villeneuve's and VFX supervisor's interviews. But please, share any new sources you can find.

Everything is possible but unlikely based on the breakdown I made from open sourced information if you check it out. I'm making some updates on it based on new refined info (shooting days and locations) on some parts of it but nothing that would likely change those overall numbers in a big way. If the actuals are $190m after rebates then you would need to add something drastic to the high ball numbers. Yeah, agree. It definitely is a mixed bag. I dived deeper into the rebates last spring regarding Ant Man 3, The Little Mermaid, Indy 5, etc and seemed that the reporting is always something to take with a grain of salt and you need to dig deeper. Pretty much all of those went over budget as Disney and MCU has a habit to do and be wasteful. And it depends a lot of the type of incentives and rebates they get. I.e. what costs can you put there. The UK seems most flexible where you can basically put everything in as long as 10% is UK local expenses. That said even in those cases you need to track possible pre-production, right fees, etc. That said, I got to a pretty accurate results when I did cost/revenue analysis on multiple movies a year ago that correspondent those that ultimately leaked out or were done by some industry analysis with more access to to actuals. But even then it's always possible to be off even tens of millions especially with Disney and MCU. Recalling now, BR 2049 was shoot mainly in Hungary too and reported budget was usually $185m or some cases even $200m but later revealed that the actual was around $150 after rebates.

I've heard that said in the past too but I don't think so. Highly unlikely in this case at least but not either in the Disney, Marvel productions that have been lately filmed with UK incentives or Dune Part 1 either.

Yeap, if their sources are good, I'll drink to that. I've been meaning to add to my numbers that I believe the actuals are a few millions less than than my $193m which would be taken out of the above the line costs hence the $190m makes sense based on the open source information that I used. What Variety forgets to point out are hefty rebates which brings the effective actuals at $150m. That's where they should compare the BO. I.e. breakeven point is already around $300-330m. Even if the P&A budget is bloated, max $350m.

Yeah, a huge leap and almost exactly the same as Oppy at the same point. Let's hope that this with the reviews there gets the ball rolling and it keeps the pace of Oppy or even more. The cast arrived in SK today but the premier there is on 22nd. If that means they do promotions the whole time two days, this might really accelerate if by just arriving it increased 30k today.

D-8 lagging behind Oppy but hopefully Timmy and Co. Plus reviews will fasten the pace.

What would that mean $ wise?

Question: How has the SK BO changed since Dune Part 1 was released in fall 2021? It had a smaller start but considerably better legs than Oppy, whereas Oppy opened much bigger but had shorter legs. E.g. did COVID restrictions create a bottleneck in 2021 and therefore legs were much better for Dune? Or lack of competition? It seems that Dune Part 2 is heading to considerably higher opening than Part 1 but is it to be expected that the legs won't be anything like with the Part 1? That Oppy type of legs would be best case.

Yeah, rather low expectations than dissapointing with high expectations. That number would already give Villeneuve all the budget and creative freedom that he needs to make Messiah (not that he likely has had any challenges on that after Part 1 already). It's already gravy train territory.

I guess the biggest challenges in OS for Dune in addition to loosing Russia are Japan and China. Coin tosses on how it's going to perform in these right now. Would love to know some estimates from China soon but we might have proper ones just after Dune Part 1 re-release in early March.