danziger
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Posts posted by danziger
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13 hours ago, setna said:
I don´t think so, maybe Disney will update its last weeks in some time, what is strange is The Numbers is going down with the OS number in the last 2 weeks.
Yeah the-numbers OS numbers have been going haywire at least since February. They used to have a weekly worldwide chart that updated for Avatar better than BOM. Screen Daily, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, all these sites are shells of what they used to be.
BOM has only been updating on Mondays. This last week went from $1,629,261,577 to
$1,630,416,209-
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Actuals increased $700k. Haven't seen a weekend number reported yet, but the week overall made $6.2m, as the total last week after actuals was $1,619,500,248 and it's now $1,625,718,655 (was at $1,625,000 with estimates yesterday).
Previous week made $7.7m, so only a 19.5% drop. Week before that was $9.7m. So estimating a ratio based on the weekend data @kayumanggihas been posting, the 14th OS weekend probably made about $3.8m.
Screen Daily didn't include Avatar in its world weekend top 10, which is weird since it certainly made enough to be there even just going off estimates.
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14th weekend increased 10% with actuals, continuing to have a far higher PTA than other movies that are in way more theaters. 4th highest PTA among movies in 200+ theaters, 11% higher than the previous two weekends. On its 14th weekend exactly a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home's PTA was $550 lower than Avatar 2's, but it was in 1400 more theaters.
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18 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:
Wow another incredible milestone that may never be beat Brother Danzier. Thanks for that post. 77+M OW and nearly a 10x Multiplier. Thats just the power of this franchise and What JC brings out of fans from old to new generations like no one else can :(domestically and especially internationally) 3 times in a row now!!
To Have the Success of Avatar Movies.... " YOU HAVE TO RIDE!!!!""
YEEEEHAWW!!!
680M ---2.35B-2.4B WW
And with Titanic (21x for its original release) I think Cameron has the best multiplier for any $12+m opener. E.T. ($11.8m OW) had a 30x multiplier but its theater count increased 60% after opening weekend and the home video market was only in its infancy, so Titanic's multiplier is more impressive and the greatest of all time imo.
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IIRC Avatar's 9.73 domestic multiplier (from opening weekend) was the best ever for any $30m+ opener. I hadn't checked to see whether that record still stands, but skimming through BOM's OW rankings, looks like it does (I didn't double-check so someone please correct me if I'm wrong). Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, with $36.2m OW & $351.7m post-OW, came extremely close and was constrained by opening on a Wednesday.
@MikeQhas already posted a list showing Avatar: The Way of Water ranks 3rd all-time among $70+m openers. Once it exceeds 5.02, it will pass The Phantom Menace (though it also opened on a Wednesday) and rank 4th among $50+m openers. Astonishing given it is way harder to have a 5x multiplier now, especially for a $134m opener even in December.
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50 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:
Too bad has 0 chances to best Endgame -C -R ($2.121B).
Yeah but we know Avatar is much more popular in China and Russia, so it was never a fair comparison anyway. And as international markets continue growing and box office gets distributed more equitably across the world, Avatar's advantage will only increase.
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40 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:
Lol we wish. Unfortunately it's a grift business for some where they actually earn money through YT clicks for their various craptacular videos with unflattering thumbnails of Brie Larson
I really hope The Marvels has a pretty decent BO performance just to stick it to them. If they can't even substantially hurt Captain Marvel after years of viciously targeting Larson then it would seal the deal on how irrelevant they truly are.
Yeah, I'm not even a Marvel fan but will root for The Marvels just for that reason.
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All-Time weekends:
Spoiler3rd:
Star Wars 7 90.2
Avatar 68.5
Avatar 2 67.44th:
Avatar 50.3
Avatar 2 45.85th:
Avatar 42.8
Avatar 2 32.8
Titanic 30.06th:
Avatar 34.9
Top Gun 2 25.9
Titanic 25.2
Avatar 2 20.17th:
Avatar 31.3
Titanic 25.9
Avatar 2 16.0Home Alone's 3-day 7th weekend is unavailable (the 4-day was 25.1) but wouldn't make sense to include anyway since by this point its theater count had expanded 78% from its opening weekend. The highest other expansion by this point for the movies listed was Titanic's 6.7%, and the others expanded 0.3% at most.
8th:
Titanic 23.0
Avatar 22.9
Top Gun 2 12.3
Frozen 11.7
Avatar 2 11.39th:
Titanic 28.2
Avatar 23.6Avatar 2 with 7.2 fell just inside or outside the top 10 depending on the cutoff point one chooses for theater expansions after wide/semi-wide release opening weekends.
By Deadline's estimate, Avatar 2's 10th weekend would finish 6th excluding theater expansions over 40% after OW:
10th weekends:
Titanic 21.0
Avatar 16.2
Frozen 8.9
Top Gun 2 8.4
Spider-Man: No Way Home 7.5
Avatar 2 6.3 est.Of course if there was a fair way to compare box office legs worldwide, Titanic and Avatar 1 & 2 would stand out even more.
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1 hour ago, M37 said:
Agree, which is why I won’t argue against “good to very good” legs, but will push back a bit against the 5x OW/exceptional talk. Because we also cannot ignore the weak release schedule, the absence of second tier titles going after its knees, or even the lower level ankle biters shaving off some potential, which all of the comparable top level December openings faced. It got the benefit of the holidays and the open field we usually see for first weekend of May releases (*** all around!)
If Shazam 2 has kept its December date, while they absolutely could have coexisted, how much does that shave off the total and lower the multi more towards above average range?
First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW.
Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison.
By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air":
"IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)"
You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend.
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31 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Even it’s end up with 650m it’s still comes from just 130m Opening,Almost 5 x mult
A 100m OW movie going to 5 X mult is the 2nd best leggy run in DOM history behind only Maverick
So what’s the doomer post based on?
They’re saying like Avatar 2 is failed
Like you said earlier this week, we can just look at what people here were projecting after Avatar's OW, that alone tells us its legs have been phenomenal and way beyond most expectations. It just had the 2nd-best 4th weekend of all-time. No worries about the doomsayers, in the long run they only make the Avatar franchise seem even more impressive than it is.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_series
Avatar sailed past the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise ($4.5 billion) last weekend. With Avatar 3 it will pass Middle-earth, Jurassic Park, X-Men, Batman, for 9th place at minimum (barring wars, pandemics, etc.). If it gets a China release, I'm betting it will get to #6 just from those 3 movies, and very possibly #5 depending on how these next DC movies perform.
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3 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:
Yes but that's because he prefers the 3D version.
He specifically framed the movie in 2.39:1 for 2D exhibition. And 2D is how most people watch it at home.
In that interview he was talking about the 2D bluray release.
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1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:
The 4K UHD better have 2.39.1 framing. The 1.78:1 on the Blu-ray is so inferior.
Hopefully they'll have both versions, but Cameron prefers the latter:
Quote(2010)
https://collider.com/james-cameron-interview-avatar-blu-ray-also-talks-titanic-3d-and-avatar-2/
The highest and best format for this movie is the 16x9, which plays beautifully. We finished the picture in 16x9 and then we vertically extracted the cinemascope when we were mastering the film for theatrical release.
In the theatrical release of the movie, it played in 3-D in non-IMAX digital theaters in both formats. We did that by selecting whichever theater was going to look best in which format. But, for the home, we wanted to go with the full picture. I really think it helps, with the sense of vertigo underneath the flying creatures, to have that little bit of extra frame down there, when they're looking down over cliffs. It enhances the sense of height.
Even though I love the cinemascope ratio compositionally, I actually found myself falling in love with the movie in 16x9, as we went along, and I prefer to watch it in that.
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9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
hes been converted
Between this and self-described "Avatar hater for over a decade" Grace Randolph voting Avatar 2 for Best Picture, let's just hope reality itself isn't breaking down.
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I forgot to mention in the Avatar/Star Wars sequel comparison, Avatar was a much more complete story, didn't demand a sequel, whereas Star Wars was designed with many sequels in mind. Theoretically there should've been way more demand for Empire Strikes Back than Avatar 2, especially since the latter had a decade longer gap.
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Had covid not exploded in China just days before Avatar 2's release, it's clear it would've easily surpassed $2.5 billion and possibly even hit $3 billion (too early to say without seeing where WW -C ends up). This is sheer insanity given all the obstacles against it. I never made a prediction but always doubted it mainly due to Avatar 2 losing the novelty factor ala Empire Strikes Back and Jurassic Park 2. But Cameron shows once again it's a big mistake to compare his movies to anything else. He's truly in a galaxy of his own. Credit to Iron Jimbo, Stuart, Kal and all the other true believers here.
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After Avatar 5, will Cameron have 6 $2+ billion movies before any other director has more than 2?
And all 6 would be or derive from his original IP, whereas every other movie that made even half what Avatar did was a sequel or remake.
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Will any movie ever crush the worldwide record like Titanic and Avatar did?
12 years ago: http://web.archive.org/web/20110302002002/http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/
Released Film Name Total Box Office 1 2009 Avatar $2,782,833,454 2 1997 Titanic $1,842,879,955 3 2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,027,325 4 2006 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,065,659,812 5 2010 Toy Story 3 $1,064,384,497 6 2010 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,391,110 7 2008 The Dark Knight $1,001,945,358 8 2001 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $974,775,550 9 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $960,996,492 10 2010 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I $944,825,810 Only $40m of that is from Avatar's re-release.
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Just saw some clips from a hilarious cope stream by a big "anti-woke" Avatar hate channel. I shouldn't give it any promotion but too funny not to share: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9iG-JYGEU0&t=4085s May be deleted soon, they seem to delete live streams pretty quickly. They're so mad & mystified about Avatar 2's success they're theorizing that Cameron and Disney faked the box office 😂
Thankfully YouTube's transcription makes it easy to copy quotes: (from 14 & 66-70 minutes)
"Something I ain't seen trend is f***ing Avatar and I still have yet to meet anybody in my personal life who's seen it."
"I don't know a single person who's seen it"
"me neither"
"neither do I"
"it's hard to explain when you walk into theaters and again I haven't seen the film and I probably won't until it's you know released digitally but um you know when you walk into theaters and they're they're mostly empty I mean where is the where is this money coming from" 🤣
"I don't see anyone seeing it here"
"all of a sudden just because it's Avatar not Marvel something or Star Wars something people aren't even remotely curious about you know is this box office even real. we have James Cameron who has his ego and doesn't you know he can't afford to fail in this one and same thing with Disney they can't afford this to fail."
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3 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:
I think some of them for whatever reason try their best to hate on Cameron and avatar..Likely because of that woke agenda.push and Camerons films usay show great female characters can get along with male testorone touting.heroes we can root for.😄. Which as we can see folks don't like the woke message and politics pushed in everything. We want great stories and characters we can root for.
And it's good to see males shine big in the top 2 films and not one trace of woke men hating stuff put in A2 or Maverick. For example I was all excited at She-Hulk but man the pushing the men are toxic and who needs stupid man crazy.bull ( while the character is constantly shopping on the web for a bf mind you-lmao)was too much for me
. Glad everyone abandoned that ship. She-Hulk won't be back
I enjoyed Werewolf by night movie though. I think you'll like that one brother Danz. Old Hero character from marvels monster here comics genre with a touch of old school style horror. And showed you can have a male lead and female lead who are both likeable and it works without agenda shoved in
I hope they explore that part of the marvel universe more. Change things up a bit. I gave Werewolf by night
3.8/5
Thanks for the rec., hard for me to watch anything Marvel but I'll give it a shot. I'm against the anti-woke faction tho for many reasons too off-topic here, so I'll just say from the very beginning they've driven hate against Cameron and Avatar because of its strong environmentalist, pro-indigenous & anti-imperialist themes. I've had a lot of debates with these people where they openly defended the humans or said they were portrayed too negatively. They hated how Na'vi culture was shown to be vastly superior to Western culture. Jake was saved repeatedly by Neytiri and was taught by her and the Na'vi to be a far better person. So Avatar seems far more "woke" than anything I've seen or heard about from Marvel or Star Wars.
It's true TWOW is getting some praise from these people for the pro-family/father figure stuff, but from what I've seen they trash or ignore everything else the movie stands for. What about Payakan? I only see them ridicule him. Cameron made these movies mainly to speak against environmental destruction and get us to change our ways before it's too late, but they don't want to hear about it.
Anyway, of course there are always exceptions and part of the problem is there are so many different and conflicting definitions of "woke," it's hard to know what anyone means by it.
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The Yahoo Finance expert said on Tuesday that TWOW was unlikely to beat Maverick WW, even though it was beyond obvious by then that it would obliterate it. I've seen several other supposed experts similarly lowballing where TWOW is headed. During the OW Drudge Report for days ran headlines saying it was "struggling." Thankfully I've found real experts here who've helped keep me informed on what's actually happening.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
in International Box Office
Posted
Yeah according to the-numbers it's lost $7m OS in the last two weeks. They also have Titanic $33m below BOM's number. BOM is falling apart too in other ways but we know it's way more accurate in these cases because their numbers have consistently aligned with what other credible outlets have reported.