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MikeQ

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About MikeQ

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  1. Aladdin now sits at a terrific 3.86 multiplier - which is, again, mighty impressive in my book given the inflated 3-day opening weekend due to Memorial Day. This weekend's loss of theatres and screens really hurt it, so I don't think it will be able to match or exceed American Sniper or Inside Out on the multiplier front, unless it has an exceptionally healthy Labour Day weekend boost. Toy Story 4 also just cracked the top 20 multipliers for 70+M Friday openers, with a 3.47 multiplier. It will also finish with an impressive multiplier, when all is said and done - particularly for the fourth instalment and largest opening weekend of the franchise. Toy Story 3 opened almost 10 years ago, and Toy Story 4 will come close to the third film's multiplier. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.86)^ Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51) Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.47)^ Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) Skyfall (2012) — 88.4 million (3.44) Peace, Mike
  2. Toy Story 4 just made $4.53M this weekend for a nearly $420M total - even without any Labour Day boost there is no way it only ends with $427-429M, that's only another 7-9M. Peace, Mike
  3. That's my impression as well - that even if Tenet faltered somewhat financially, WB would still give Nolan another opportunity to make an original big budget film. Not only has he had overall box office success relative to budget for his last three original films, they also all received Oscar nominations and wins (Inception: 8 noms/4 wins; Interstellar: 5 noms/1 win; Dunkrik: 8 noms/3 wins), with two of his last three being nominated for Best Picture. Peace, Mike
  4. I should have known you would have put the work into doing this, given how much work you put into the tracking thread. Very well said! Peace, Mike
  5. Once again, let's take a look at the Summer Game predictions for The Lion King to get a realistic sense of expectations: Average prediction for Domestic Gross: $549.99M Average prediction for Worldwide Gross: $1.424B At bare minimum, The Lion King is meeting general expectations, if not slightly exceeding them. Peace, Mike
  6. I agree. With opening weekend previews excluded, Incredibles 2 dropped 51% on its second weekend. An equivalent drop for The Lion King sans previews would lead to about 82M for its second weekend (~57% drop overall). Incredibles 2 had a 56% drop overall, and still went on to have a 3.3 multiplier. The Lion King could potentially do similarly in terms of legs overall, even with a large second weekend drop, if general WOM is good enough. Peace, Mike
  7. Man, 30.3M for The Lion King is massive - summer weekdays and discount Tuesdays help, but we rarely see numbers this huge on a non-opening weekday. Best Non-Opening Tuesdays: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens -- 37.4M 2. Avengers: Endgame -- 33.1M 3. The Lion King -- 30.3M 4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens -- 29.5M 5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi -- 27.7M And Toy Story 4 and Aladdin continue to leg it out - with Charlie's Tuesday numbers, already a 3.16 multiplier for Toy Story 4 (with a good chunk of change still to rake in) and 3.74 for Aladdin. Could the latter hit or finish close to a 4 multiplier? Peace, Mike
  8. Both estimates and actuals for any given weekday will not be reported until the next day. Therefore, Monday numbers will not be reported until Tuesday. Tuesday numbers will not be reported until Wednesday. Etc. This is the same for Fridays and Saturdays for weekend grosses (Friday estimates will be reported on Saturday, and Saturday estimates will be reported on Sunday). Sundays are the only day of the week where studios will project their own estimated grosses for the Sunday that same day (i.e. on Sunday) in order to report estimated weekend grosses for the films. Then on Monday, as we are seeing now, studios will report actual final grosses for the Friday/Saturday/Sunday and weekend. Peace, Mike
  9. Summer RT Update: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood currently sits with an 8.2 average rating with 65 reviews, and if it maintains this once the bulk of reviews come in, it could end up being the third film of the summer with an 8+ average rating. This summer does seem to surpass the summer of 2016 (the first summer I tracked), in terms of the number of films at 80+% and with an 8+ average rating. If 'Once Upon...' maintains an 8+ average rating, this summer will be tied with last summer at 3 films each with an 8+ average rating. The best is still the summer of 2017 with 4 films (and also with 14 films at 80+%). 2019 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Toy Story 4 — 98% — 8.4 rating Booksmart — 97% — 8.3 rating Once Upon a Time In Hollywood — 92% — 8.2 rating (with 65 reviews) Rocketman — 90% — 7.6 rating John Wick: Chapter 3 — 90% — 7.5 rating Spider-Man: Far From Home — 90% — 7.5 rating Crawl — 84% — 6.6 rating Midsommar — 82% — 7.5 rating Long Shot — 81% — 7.1 rating Late Night — 80% — 6.9 rating Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 67% — 6.0 rating Annabelle Comes Home — 64% — 5.8 rating Child’s Play — 64% — 5.8 rating Yesterday — 63% — 6.4 rating Secret Life of Pets 2 — 59% — 5.8 rating Brightburn — 57% — 5.6 rating Aladdin — 56% — 5.9 rating The Lion King — 55% — 6.1 rating Ma — 55% — 5.6 rating Tolkien — 51% — 5.8 rating A Dog’s Journey — 49% — 5.2 rating The Sun Is Also a Star — 48% — 5.6 rating Stuber — 42% — 5.0 rating Godzilla: King of the Monsters — 41% — 5.2 rating Poms — 35% — 4.9 rating Shaft — 31% — 4.6 rating The Intruder — 31% — 4.2 rating UglyDolls — 28% — 4.4 rating Anna — 27% — 4.6 rating Dark Phoenix — 23% — 4.6 rating Men in Black International — 22% — 4.5 rating The Hustle — 14% — 3.9 rating 2019 — 32 wide-release films (*SO FAR*) 14 fresh, 18 rotten 80% or higher: 10 films 8.0+ rating: 2 films (Toy Story 4, Booksmart, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood) 2018 — 45 wide-release films 22 fresh, 23 rotten 80% or higher: 13 films 8.0+ rating: 3 films (BlacKkKlansman, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Hereditary) 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike
  10. Terrific numbers for The Lion King (which will most likely increase with actuals). Almost everything above it is a Star Wars or Avengers movie. It is the highest opening "family film" of all time. Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews) Avengers: Endgame — 97.5 million Avengers: Infinity War — 67.3 million Jurassic World — 63.5 million Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million The Lion King (2019) — 55.5 million Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million Incredibles 2 — 52.8 million Furious 7 — 51.6 million Black Panther — 50.7 million Captain America: Civil War — 50.5 million Spider-Man 3 — 49.8 million The Dark Knight — 48.7 million Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 47.6 million The Hunger Games — 47.5 million Beauty and the Beast — 47.5 million Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day Avengers: Endgame — 60.0 million (38.1%) Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%) Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%) Avengers: Infinity War — 39.0 million (36.7%) The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%) Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%) Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%) The Lion King (2019) — 23 million (29.3%) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — 22.8 million (39.2%) Captain Marvel — 20.7 million (33.5%) Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%) The Hunger Games — 19.735 million (29.3%) Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%) Deadpool 2 — 18.6 million (35.1%) Incredibles 2 — 18.5 million (25.9%) Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights Avengers: Endgame — 357.1 million (16.8%) Avengers: Infinity War — 257.7 million (15.1%) Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 248.0 million (23.0%) Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 220.0 million (20.5%) Jurassic World — 208.8 million (8.9%) Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%) Black Panther — 202.0 million (12.5%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%) The Lion King — 185.0 million (12.4%) Incredibles 2 — 180.5 million (10.1%) Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%) Beauty and the Beast — 174.8 million (9.3%) Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 169.2 million (25.7%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%) The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%) The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 158.1 million (16.0%) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 155.1 million (18.7%) Captain Marvel — 153.4 million (13.5%) Peace, Mike
  11. Aladdin keeps chugging - now at a 3.72 multiplier off of an inflated Memorial Day long weekend. Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers): Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.72) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58) The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53) The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) Peace, Mike
  12. @Charlie Jatinder: Thanks for dedicating a whole bunch of time and work to provide a bunch of strangers/nerds insider box office data and projections. You go above and beyond, and I am really appreciative. I also understand that early projections are just that, and I can’t imagine how difficult it is to project so early in the day on opening day with pre-sales complicating things, so few comparisons when the numbers are so big for a family film, etc. So cheers to you. Peace, Mike
  13. It's too early for me to say how frontloaded the weekend will be. Even with a Friday on the low end of RTH's range of 76.5-78.5 million, The Lion King would have the smallest percentage of opening day from Thursday previews for any film that hit 20M+ from previews. On the other hand, it would be more frontloaded than the two closest "family film" comparisons of Incredibles 2 (18.5M in previews) and Beauty and the Beast (16.3M). Ultimately, we don't have a lot of comparisons, as The Lion King is opening considerably larger than most family films, and we don't have a lot of films (of any kind) close to this size that opened in July (you have to go back to 2012, when The Dark Knight opened to $160.9M, and 2011 when Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened to 169.2M). It could be frontloaded over the weekend, and then have gargantuan July weekdays this coming week. *shrug* Peace, Mike
  14. Also, I will add that Pumbaa and Timon are the best part of the film for me not just because they are funny, but because they, together, are a part of the film that feels new. Seth Rogan and Billy Eichner are given the space to make the characters their own. Scar, to a lesser extent, thrives because of this too - Chiwetel Ejiofor gives Scar a sort of Shakespearean gravitas and gets to be seething and menacing in a compelling way. Peace, Mike
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