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Happy Summer Movie Season. Play the summer game.

MikeQ

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  1. Summer RT Update: Summer is off to a poor start, in terms of the ratio of Fresh versus Rotten films - only 7 Fresh films compared with 15 Rotten. However, 6 of the 7 Fresh films have 80% or more on the Tomatometer, and we have two films already with 8+ average ratings. Since 2016 (when I began tracking), the most films with 8+ average ratings occurred in the summer of 2017 (with 4 films achieving this feat). Can this summer tie or surpass this number? Toy Story 4 doesn’t open until next weekend, but it has solidified itself as the most critically acclaimed film of the summer so far, making for another critically acclaimed instalment in an incredibly well received franchise overall. Late Night expands wide this weekend, and is one of the few Fresh films so far this summer. Men in Black International and Shaft also open, and sit squarely in the Rotten column. Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix from last weekend are also Rotten. 2019 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Toy Story 4 — 100% — 8.6 rating Booksmart — 97% — 8.3 rating Rocketman — 90% — 7.6 rating John Wick: Chapter 3 — 90% — 7.5 rating Long Shot — 81% — 7.1 rating Late Night — 80% — 6.9 rating Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 66% — 6.0 rating Aladdin — 57% — 5.9 rating Ma — 57% — 5.6 rating Secret Life of Pets 2 — 56% — 5.7 rating Brightburn — 56% — 5.7 rating Tolkien — 51% — 5.8 rating A Dog’s Journey — 49% — 5.1 rating The Sun Is Also a Star — 47% — 5.6 rating Godzilla: King of the Monsters — 40% — 5.1 rating Poms — 34% — 4.9 rating Shaft — 34% — 4.8 rating The Intruder — 31% — 4.2 rating UglyDolls — 29% — 4.4 rating Men in Black International — 24% — 4.6 rating Dark Phoenix — 23% — 4.6 rating The Hustle — 15% — 3.9 rating 2019 — 22 wide-release films (*SO FAR*) 7 fresh, 15 rotten 80% or higher: 6 films 8.0+ rating: 2 films (Toy Story 4, Booksmart) 2018 — 45 wide-release films 22 fresh, 23 rotten 80% or higher: 13 films 8.0+ rating: 3 films (BlacKkKlansman, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Hereditary) 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike
  2. The Toy Story franchise has got to be the most impressive animated franchise ever - one that has grown with its existing audience and explores universal themes that speak to new and old audiences alike. It's another critically acclaimed film to add to Pixar's impressive body of work, wherein they only really have one stinker (Cars 2) and 19 of 21 are Certified Fresh on RT. The four Toy Story films are among their most critically acclaimed - though they have so many that are highly critically acclaimed with high average ratings. Assuming a $150M+ opening for Toy Story 4, I think we're looking at $500M+ at the domestic box office, for a franchise that is also accomplished at the box office. If this kind of box office performance comes to fruition, the franchise will have grown with each film, even adjusted for inflation. Pixar Movie RT Scores and Multipliers 90%+ RT Score Class Toy Story — 100% (9.0 rating) — 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day) Toy Story 2 — 100% (8.7 rating) — 4.28 (using first wide weekend) Toy Story 4 — 100% (8.5 rating) — TBD (with 68 reviews) Finding Nemo — 99% (8.7 rating) — 4.83 Toy Story 3 — 98% (8.9 rating) — 3.76 Inside Out — 98% (8.9 rating) — 3.94 Up — 98% (8.7 rating) — 4.30 Coco — 97% (8.3 rating) — 4.13 (using 3-day), 2.88 (using 5-day) The Incredibles — 97% (8.3 rating) — 3.71 Ratatouille — 96% (8.5 rating) — 4.39 Monsters, Inc — 96% (8.0 rating) — 4.09 Wall-E — 95% (8.5 rating) — 3.55 Incredibles 2 — 94% (7.9 rating) — 3.33 Finding Dory — 94% (7.6 rating) — 3.60 A Bug’s Life — 92% (7.9 rating) — 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide) The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies Monsters University — 80% (6.8 rating) — 3.26 Brave — 79% (7.0 rating) — 3.58 The Good Dinosaur — 76% (6.6 rating) — 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day) Cars — 75% (6.9 rating) — 4.06 Cars 3 — 70% (6.1 rating) — 2.85 Cars 2 — 38% (5.5 rating) — 2.89 Peace, Mike
  3. Why would this be funny? Kids often know from a fairly young age that they are different when it comes to sexuality and attraction, or will meet other kids that are different. Many parents want to see this reality reflected in the movies they take their kids to see, so that their own kids know that they are normal and loved, and know to treat others the same way. That's not funny to me, and arguably it is more important to have this simple representation in movies directed to kids, as they grow up to be adults. In my experience, people aren't "loudly demanding" that a character be gay, only that it should be a non-issue that a character were gay. And given the lack of representation in media (including movies), how wonderful it might be to see that on screen sometimes. Peace, Mike
  4. Thanks Pure Spirit, and I'm sorry to hear of the loss of your father (around the same age my dad died too, who also got sick). So, I truly sympathize as well. Being able to banter with my dad is something I miss too. I'm so glad you were able to have the experience of travelling with your dad through China before he got sick. On your better days, these memories will fill you with that love and gratitude. The best advice I can give is that there is no wrong way to grieve and no wrong way to feel, and to ignore anyone who tells you otherwise. Grief isn't something you "get over", but something you learn to live with as part of your life, and you are allowed to grieve. A helpful thing for me personally, in explaining my grief to others, has been the ball in the box metaphor: https://www.indy100.com/article/grief-viral-thread-lauren-herschel-ball-in-box-analogy-death-8792541 It may be helpful for you. Peace, Mike
  5. Thanks cd. I had a very close/deep relationship with my father, so it has been hard (he also died at a relatively young age), but on the flip side, I was lucky to have that kind of relationship with my dad (not everyone does). Grief lives with us forever, but it changes over time, and adds meaning and texture to our lives too. I appreciate you saying this. Cheers. Peace, Mike
  6. That's totally fair. For me, most of the shots look photorealistic, as in "renders images in an extremely realistic way", with some scenes/shots being excellent (like of the close up of Rafiki - for me, someone could have spliced that into a nature doc trailer and I wouldn't have thought anything of it, with how incredibly and intimately nature docs are shot these days). But there are definitely shots or aspects that don't read as much that way. Peace, Mike
  7. Rafiki is probably the most stunningly real looking character I've seen from the film in the promotional clips/trailers, even with most of the CGI being really impressive. The close up of his face looks entirely real to me. ***Potential spoiler alert for those who aren't familiar with the original animated film*** Knowing the incredibly poignant/emotional scene of which he is apart ("he lives in you..." etc), I think again, the film has a real potential to be a visual and emotional experience, if Disney hasn't squandered that opportunity. I lost my dad at the end of last year, and if they've handled that particular scene well, I'm certain I will be a mess. It still remains to be seen how they will handle certain scenes as "live action" (photorealistic CGI), but again, the promotional material so far has me cautiously optimistic. I'm curious to see what the initial reactions from critics/viewers are to the film. Peace, Mike
  8. The quality on this was a little iffy for me, so I found the original here: https://comicbook.com/movies/2019/06/05/lion-king-disney-international-trailer/ The more I see of characters interacting with each other, the more impressed I am. It is incredible what they can do in a totally CGI environment. I am cautiously optimistic for this. Peace, Mike
  9. I'm assuming this is intended to be a troll response? You took the first sentence of my post, deleted the rest (which provided the context of my response, re: multipliers for similar high grossing/opening family films, summer weekdays, etc), and decided to respond with a list of films that opened to $150M but didn't make $1.1 billion worldwide, none of which are relevant comparisons for this film. Never mind that this clearly wasn't my assertion to begin with, but you decide to respond in a completely non-productive way anyway. Peace, Mike
  10. That, and also if it is at $125.8M after this weekend as deadline projects, it will have already grossed ~34M more than its predecessor, and ~83M more than the original Wick, with still more in the tank. The film is doing gangbusters to have increased on its predecessor yet again and to finish well ahead of both of them. One of the more impressive box office outcomes this year, I would say. Peace, Mike
  11. It is easy to write off the remake as destined to be emotionless, and not able to capture the original. In one sense, that will be true, because there are things you can do with animation that you cannot do with live action/photorealistic CGI. But this has the potential to stand on its own merits and to be an affecting experience in its own way. Lions in particular have highly developed expressive movements and behaviours, and the latest commercial that was posted gives me a sense of how this could play out on screen in a potentially effective way. It won't be the animated original, but it could be a great film nonetheless. The voice work and music will also be important. Of the Disney live action remakes, this one has me the most intrigued, I would say. And what we've seen of the CGI is remarkable. Peace, Mike
  12. Thank you as always, @Charlie Jatinder, for taking time to share numbers with us, and for your contributions. You'll be missed until your return. Good luck! Peace, Mike
  13. Baumer, would a $150 million domestic opening not make $1.1 billion worldwide still likely for a summer opener like this? Finding Dory opened in the summer with $135M and had a 3.60 multiplier domestically. It went on to gross close to $1.1 billion worldwide ($1.028 billion to be exact). The Incredibles 2 opened last summer with $182.7M and still had a 3.33 multiplier domestically. It went on to gross $1.242 billion worldwide. And both had relatively muted proportions of their worldwide gross from overseas/international markets. If The Lion King opens with $150M, it will likely finish with around $500M domestically, at least, and I expect that its international gross would be even healthier (i.e. consist of a higher percentage of its worldwide gross) than the above Pixar films, given the nature of the film. Therefore, another $600M internationally seems likely to me, in that situation. And while it is still early, we know that tracking currently has the film pegged at a $180-230M opening - given this, the trailer metrics, the nostalgia factor, etc, it seems again likely it could open even higher than $150M anyway. (Of course, the film could be terrible and WOM not be good - but I'm working under the assumption at this point that the film and WOM will be good. I don't have any reason to believe otherwise, as there haven't been any warning flags to suggest otherwise. The trailers have been well received and highly viewed, the director did well handling a similar kind of a photorealistic CGI film with The Jungle Book, etc. So while anything can happen, as is always the case, the picture that is painted for me right now suggests a likely $1.1+ billion run.) Peace, Mike
  14. I genuinely think we should ban all discussion of critics being "biased" or "having an agenda" and confine it to a single thread dedicated to this topic, similar to the Fan Wars thread. The discussion comes up time and time again, and it just isn't a productive one, IMHO. Peace, Mike
  15. The Jungle Book grossed nearly $1 billion worldwide, and The Lion King is basically a significantly more anticipated and beloved equivalent of this. Its first trailer was the second most watched trailer in the first 24 hours ever, and box office tracking has the film pegged at opening between $180-230M domestically. Therefore, it seems more likely than not to me that this will surpass $1.1 billion worldwide. I'm out. Peace, Mike
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