danziger
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Everything posted by danziger
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
danziger replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Yeah according to the-numbers it's lost $7m OS in the last two weeks. They also have Titanic $33m below BOM's number. BOM is falling apart too in other ways but we know it's way more accurate in these cases because their numbers have consistently aligned with what other credible outlets have reported. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
danziger replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Yeah the-numbers OS numbers have been going haywire at least since February. They used to have a weekly worldwide chart that updated for Avatar better than BOM. Screen Daily, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, all these sites are shells of what they used to be. BOM has only been updating on Mondays. This last week went from $1,629,261,577 to $1,630,416,209 -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
danziger replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Actuals increased $700k. Haven't seen a weekend number reported yet, but the week overall made $6.2m, as the total last week after actuals was $1,619,500,248 and it's now $1,625,718,655 (was at $1,625,000 with estimates yesterday). Previous week made $7.7m, so only a 19.5% drop. Week before that was $9.7m. So estimating a ratio based on the weekend data @kayumanggihas been posting, the 14th OS weekend probably made about $3.8m. Screen Daily didn't include Avatar in its world weekend top 10, which is weird since it certainly made enough to be there even just going off estimates. -
14th weekend increased 10% with actuals, continuing to have a far higher PTA than other movies that are in way more theaters. 4th highest PTA among movies in 200+ theaters, 11% higher than the previous two weekends. On its 14th weekend exactly a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home's PTA was $550 lower than Avatar 2's, but it was in 1400 more theaters.
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And with Titanic (21x for its original release) I think Cameron has the best multiplier for any $12+m opener. E.T. ($11.8m OW) had a 30x multiplier but its theater count increased 60% after opening weekend and the home video market was only in its infancy, so Titanic's multiplier is more impressive and the greatest of all time imo.
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IIRC Avatar's 9.73 domestic multiplier (from opening weekend) was the best ever for any $30m+ opener. I hadn't checked to see whether that record still stands, but skimming through BOM's OW rankings, looks like it does (I didn't double-check so someone please correct me if I'm wrong). Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, with $36.2m OW & $351.7m post-OW, came extremely close and was constrained by opening on a Wednesday. @MikeQhas already posted a list showing Avatar: The Way of Water ranks 3rd all-time among $70+m openers. Once it exceeds 5.02, it will pass The Phantom Menace (though it also opened on a Wednesday) and rank 4th among $50+m openers. Astonishing given it is way harder to have a 5x multiplier now, especially for a $134m opener even in December.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
danziger replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Yeah but we know Avatar is much more popular in China and Russia, so it was never a fair comparison anyway. And as international markets continue growing and box office gets distributed more equitably across the world, Avatar's advantage will only increase. -
Yeah, I'm not even a Marvel fan but will root for The Marvels just for that reason.
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First I appreciate the data you bring to these discussions, you clearly have great knowledge of the business, and this post isn't about shaming anyone's wrong predictions. I'm wrong all the time and have lower standing than anyone since I never even predicted anything for Avatar 2. Only posting this as a reminder of how massively the goalposts have shifted since OW. Ok, so you compared Avatar 2's multiplier from OWeek to Sherlock 2's without noting that even adjusting for CPI inflation, S2's OWeek was way smaller ($77.3m vs. A2's $197.7m), and then in the very next sentence you said "Make of those legs what you will." As @Dale Cooperpointed out, LOTR 1 would've been a much fairer (albeit still very flawed) comparison. By your own standard from four weeks ago, when you said "“but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January" and "let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward," Avatar 2's legs have achieved "truly rarified air": "IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)" You said that when the "benefit of holidays and the open field" was known. You thought A2 would be "topping out at like Hobbit levels of legs. Because there’s really no data to suggest some magical run is brewing, other than the name in the title, and from a much different box office - and social - landscape 13 years ago." That equals $530m (2.68x), which it passed yesterday on the precipice of having probably a top 5 all-time 5th weekend.
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Like you said earlier this week, we can just look at what people here were projecting after Avatar's OW, that alone tells us its legs have been phenomenal and way beyond most expectations. It just had the 2nd-best 4th weekend of all-time. No worries about the doomsayers, in the long run they only make the Avatar franchise seem even more impressive than it is.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_series Avatar sailed past the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise ($4.5 billion) last weekend. With Avatar 3 it will pass Middle-earth, Jurassic Park, X-Men, Batman, for 9th place at minimum (barring wars, pandemics, etc.). If it gets a China release, I'm betting it will get to #6 just from those 3 movies, and very possibly #5 depending on how these next DC movies perform.
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In that interview he was talking about the 2D bluray release.
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Hopefully they'll have both versions, but Cameron prefers the latter:
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Between this and self-described "Avatar hater for over a decade" Grace Randolph voting Avatar 2 for Best Picture, let's just hope reality itself isn't breaking down.
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I forgot to mention in the Avatar/Star Wars sequel comparison, Avatar was a much more complete story, didn't demand a sequel, whereas Star Wars was designed with many sequels in mind. Theoretically there should've been way more demand for Empire Strikes Back than Avatar 2, especially since the latter had a decade longer gap.
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Had covid not exploded in China just days before Avatar 2's release, it's clear it would've easily surpassed $2.5 billion and possibly even hit $3 billion (too early to say without seeing where WW -C ends up). This is sheer insanity given all the obstacles against it. I never made a prediction but always doubted it mainly due to Avatar 2 losing the novelty factor ala Empire Strikes Back and Jurassic Park 2. But Cameron shows once again it's a big mistake to compare his movies to anything else. He's truly in a galaxy of his own. Credit to Iron Jimbo, Stuart, Kal and all the other true believers here.
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After Avatar 5, will Cameron have 6 $2+ billion movies before any other director has more than 2? And all 6 would be or derive from his original IP, whereas every other movie that made even half what Avatar did was a sequel or remake.
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Will any movie ever crush the worldwide record like Titanic and Avatar did? 12 years ago: http://web.archive.org/web/20110302002002/http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/ Released Film Name Total Box Office 1 2009 Avatar $2,782,833,454 2 1997 Titanic $1,842,879,955 3 2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,027,325 4 2006 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,065,659,812 5 2010 Toy Story 3 $1,064,384,497 6 2010 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,391,110 7 2008 The Dark Knight $1,001,945,358 8 2001 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $974,775,550 9 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $960,996,492 10 2010 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I $944,825,810 Only $40m of that is from Avatar's re-release.
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Just saw some clips from a hilarious cope stream by a big "anti-woke" Avatar hate channel. I shouldn't give it any promotion but too funny not to share: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9iG-JYGEU0&t=4085s May be deleted soon, they seem to delete live streams pretty quickly. They're so mad & mystified about Avatar 2's success they're theorizing that Cameron and Disney faked the box office 😂 Thankfully YouTube's transcription makes it easy to copy quotes: (from 14 & 66-70 minutes) "Something I ain't seen trend is f***ing Avatar and I still have yet to meet anybody in my personal life who's seen it." "I don't know a single person who's seen it" "me neither" "neither do I" "it's hard to explain when you walk into theaters and again I haven't seen the film and I probably won't until it's you know released digitally but um you know when you walk into theaters and they're they're mostly empty I mean where is the where is this money coming from" 🤣 "I don't see anyone seeing it here" "all of a sudden just because it's Avatar not Marvel something or Star Wars something people aren't even remotely curious about you know is this box office even real. we have James Cameron who has his ego and doesn't you know he can't afford to fail in this one and same thing with Disney they can't afford this to fail."
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Thanks for the rec., hard for me to watch anything Marvel but I'll give it a shot. I'm against the anti-woke faction tho for many reasons too off-topic here, so I'll just say from the very beginning they've driven hate against Cameron and Avatar because of its strong environmentalist, pro-indigenous & anti-imperialist themes. I've had a lot of debates with these people where they openly defended the humans or said they were portrayed too negatively. They hated how Na'vi culture was shown to be vastly superior to Western culture. Jake was saved repeatedly by Neytiri and was taught by her and the Na'vi to be a far better person. So Avatar seems far more "woke" than anything I've seen or heard about from Marvel or Star Wars. It's true TWOW is getting some praise from these people for the pro-family/father figure stuff, but from what I've seen they trash or ignore everything else the movie stands for. What about Payakan? I only see them ridicule him. Cameron made these movies mainly to speak against environmental destruction and get us to change our ways before it's too late, but they don't want to hear about it. Anyway, of course there are always exceptions and part of the problem is there are so many different and conflicting definitions of "woke," it's hard to know what anyone means by it.
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The Yahoo Finance expert said on Tuesday that TWOW was unlikely to beat Maverick WW, even though it was beyond obvious by then that it would obliterate it. I've seen several other supposed experts similarly lowballing where TWOW is headed. During the OW Drudge Report for days ran headlines saying it was "struggling." Thankfully I've found real experts here who've helped keep me informed on what's actually happening.
