A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Sorry but critics have done a hit job

Why are we starting down this path, young Jedi. It will only lead to the Dark Side and Thread Bans. 
 

Also in what world is “the reviews were glowing, everyone said it was beautiful and third act was great, some thought nature Doc elements lagged” a hit job? Troll harder, girl. 

[Reddroast]

If anybody wants I can live react to alita tn

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Reddroast said:

If anybody wants I can live react to alita tn

Dewit. 

[M37]

14 hours ago, M37 said:

Not all the meltdowns will happen this weekend though, as “but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January 

Since its only Friday and we're already into the legs discussion, let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward

 

It's very difficult for a $100M+ opener to have really great legs, because in order to attain that level of opening, there must be at least some high level of hype/anticipation drawing people to the OW, which reduces future potential audience, unless there is great WOM that broadens the audience or encourages repeat watches

 

Of the 68 $100M+ openings ever, these are the only ones which legged out to gross at least 2.3x their first full week (using full week because it mostly balances out the differences in seasons/opening days)

For reference, OG Avatar was a ridiculous 5.47x by this measure

• TGM = 3.49x (!!!)
• Shrek 2 = 2.94x (Wed opening)
• Wonder Woman = 2.79x
• Toy Story 4 = 2.43x
• Black Panther = 2.398x
• Rogue One = 2.397x
• Force Awakens = 2.396x
• Frozen II = 2.35x (Thanksgiving week)
• Avengers = 2.31x

IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such an outlier seems ... imprudent)

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

It's really hard to find something to compare this to that is actually fairly on point.

 

If you want a comp that kinda sorta fits and paints a somewhat optimistic picture, then I offer you (again...) The Hobbit, the first release in a planned series, following-up (well, prequel mostly) the LOTR trilogy 9 years previously, which had an $84M OW, and went on to make 2.68x its first full week, despite a fairly strong slate of competition opening on 12/21-12/25.

 

It can vary somewhat, but for a film opening on this pre-Christmas Friday, multiply by 1.5 to get the standard OW multiplier; so 2.68x the first week is roughly equivalent to a 4x from just OW

Edited December 17, 2022 by M37

[marveldcfox]

Frankly these numbers are making me avoid this movie. Instead of being excited to watch it next weekend, I feel like skipping it. Many people operate that way. When something is truly a sensation and a positive surprise, curiosity levels go up and people on the fence go to theatres to check out.

[MrPink]

6 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

So yeah, Avatar is a primarily white endeavor. Like I predicted pages ago. 
 

 

Diversity breakdown is 44% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 15% African American,  and 20% Asian/other.

 

Guess the movie

[kayumanggi]

So who is the troll again? 🙃

[Cmasterclay]

Parking lot report - went to the parking lot where the theater was tonight and it was absolutely freaking packed. However, apparently Jeremy Piven is performing at the comedy club and there is a live music festival. Data unclear. Anywhere between 50m and 250m OW is possible based on this experience..

[marveldcfox]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Diversity breakdown is 44% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 15% African American,  and 20% Asian/other.

 

Guess the movie

Wakanda?

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Diversity breakdown is 44% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 15% African American,  and 20% Asian/other.

 

Guess the movie

Average Marvel film? Avengers: Endgame most likely? I totally forgot how Infinity Saga was an allegory about colonialism in the veins of The Last Samurai and Dance with Wolves, thanks for reminding me that.

 

 

1 minute ago, marveldcfox said:

Wakanda?

Nah.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/korihale/2022/11/14/african-american-and-hispanic-audiences-spur-black-panther-wakanda-forever-to-180-million-opening-weekend/?sh=22cff1ebe6c5

Edited December 17, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

…13% black

Are you  aware of the demographics of this country? To pretend that A2 is playing extremely white based on these nums is mind bogglingly comical.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Diversity breakdown is 44% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 15% African American,  and 20% Asian/other.

 

Guess the movie

 

Top Gun: Maverick

Edited December 17, 2022 by Porthos
Decided to clear out my edit

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Diversity breakdown is 44% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 15% African American,  and 20% Asian/other.

 

Guess the movie

White nationalists turned out in droves to see the perfect Aryan specimen, Jeremy Renner.

[CoolioD1]

i was wondering why there were like 17000 posts in this thread from a user i had on ignore whose name i didn't recognised so i clicked "show" on one of the posts. oh.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Since its only Friday and we're already into the legs discussion, let's set some perspective and expectations moving forward

 

It's very difficult for a $100M+ opener to have really great legs, because in order to attain that level of opening, there must be at least some high level of hype/anticipation drawing people to the OW, which reduces future potential audience, unless there is great WOM that broadens the audience or encourages repeat watches

 

Of the 68 $100M+ openings ever, these are the only ones which legged out to gross at least 2.3x their first full week (using full week because it mostly balances out the differences in seasons/opening days)

For reference, OG Avatar was a ridiculous 5.47x by this measure

• TGM = 3.49x (!!!)
• Shrek 2 = 2.94x (Wed opening)
• Wonder Woman = 2.79x
• Toy Story 4 = 2.43x
• Black Panther = 2.398x
• Rogue One = 2.397x
• Force Awakens = 2.396x
• Frozen II = 2.35x (Thanksgiving week)
• Avengers = 2.31x

IMO, a "good" result would be matching the 2.4x of TFA/RO from this release window, while a really good result would be somewhere around WW at 2.8x, and anything above 3.0x is truly rarefied air (which of course we've seen from Cameron before, but expecting such on such an outlier seems ... imprudent)

 

 

If you want a comp that kinda sorta fits and paints a somewhat optimistic picture, then I offer you (again...) The Hobbit, the first release in a planned series, following-up (well, prequel mostly) the LOTR trilogy 9 years previously, which had an $84M OW, and went on to make 2.68x its first full week, despite a fairly strong slate of competition opening on 12/21-12/25. It can vary somewhat, but for a film opening on this pre-Christmas Friday, 2.68x the first week is roughly equivalent to a 4x from just OW

I strongly approve of using full week multis but am gonna Mildly kvetch at you about how unadjusted figures are excluding a lot of movies that opened bigger than A2 in real terms from this analysis, as is my wont  😛 

 

Agree with the larger point as usual

Edited December 17, 2022 by Korra Legion

[saltypistol]

2 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Frankly these numbers are making me avoid this movie. Instead of being excited to watch it next weekend, I feel like skipping it. Many people operate that way. When something is truly a sensation and a positive surprise, curiosity levels go up and people on the fence go to theatres to check out.

Admittedly I'm new here and I'm really not trying to be rude, but why do you seem to have such a hate boner for the movie? You just keep saying a variation of the same thing over and over again. It seems exhausting for both yourself and the people here. 

[MrPink]

7 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Average Marvel film? Avengers: Endgame most likely? I totally forgot how Infinity Saga was an allegory about colonialism in the veins of The Last Samurai and Dance with Wolves, thanks for reminding me that.

 

I totally forgot that y'know, the demographics of the US has like an over 50% white majority demographic share which inherently means the majority of films are going to have white people at the highest demo share. 

 

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

White nationalists turned out in droves to see the perfect Aryan specimen, Jeremy Renner.

 

White nationalists + a certain Asian fan who has taken things too far. That's my Mayor of Kingstown man

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by MrPink

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

I strongly approve of using full week multis but am gonna Mildly kvetch at you about how unadjusted figures are excluding a lot of movies that opened bigger than A2 in real terms from this analysis, as is my wont  😛 

 

Agree with the larger point as usual

For example, A1 adjusted ow is over 100M by now so if we’re going to include minions 2 might as well include it    
 

More seriously the OWeek here will be ~200 I guess so I might try to fish up a dataset on adjusted OWeeks 200+ if I find the mood/time

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

I strongly approve of using full week multis but am gonna Mildly kvetch at you about how unadjusted figures are excluding a lot of movies that opened bigger than A2 in real terms from this analysis, as is my wont  😛 

 

Agree with the larger point as usual

Problem is, when you get the to the level of having to adjust OW to cross a threshold, you're also reaching back into time when legs were just far better in general, and so not reflective of the current market. (Which is why I went down to $100M and not stopping at like $120/$130, and included Hobbit, as I'm guessing it would adjust to a similar $ value as Avatwo's expected OW)

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, saltypistol said:

Admittedly I'm new here and I'm really not trying to be rude, but why do you seem to have such a hate boner for the movie? You just keep saying a variation of the same thing over and over again. It seems exhausting for both yourself and the people here. 

It’s his shtick. If you are here long enough (welcome, we have cookies) you will find we all have shticks.

Some, alas, have shticks that frequently get them thread banned. 

 

Mine is Steve Rogers is my perfect precious boy and I am gonna use up all my good will when we finally get to The Marvels and start I screaming SEXISM/INTERNALIZED MISOGYNY at anyone that dares speak ill of Carol, Kamala, and Monica.