mike&night

Can the best picture nomination & the news that it crossed $2B help Avatar at the box office?

Great weekend overall. Very intrigued by Avatar 2’s legs moving forward. Let’s see if it can maintain strong weekend legs on par with TGM. Ideally it could even surpass it, but for now I’m thinking $680M is the ceiling.

I love how a movie that had the second highest 4th weekend ever that could still reach 650-700M is now pulling a “Rogue One” despite having similar week days to TFA and performing better than NWH. Come on now.

I love the meltdowns as if the movie isn't about to surpass $2B.

I just can’t believe Cameron has done it again. Third time in a row. It’s movie magic.

Well I’m new, I’m dumb et al, but running the numbers I knew it wouldn’t be that far behind Avatar’s 4th weekend, despite the many calendar configuration statements. Good job Jimmy C. What a fantastic weekend though!

Not bad, still in the $40-47M weekend realm. Hopefully it manages to overperform and stay as close to $50M as possible. I watched M3GAN yesterday and thought it was quite generic. Bland, extremely PG-13, everything happens off-screen and not as funny as people are making it out to be? Like I’m not sure why people are LOLing in the theater. Also not as camp as I expected, seemed to take itself more seriously than I expected. But M3gan as a villain has a lot of potential, hopefully the sequel is rated R.

Thanks Mike! Is the calendar configuration once the holidays are over accurate? I mean nobody expected TWOW to do +$67M last weekend either, all the estimates I saw were in the high 40s to mid 50s. I guess we'll see. It's fun learning with you guys.

New (ex-lurker) here. Just want to come by and thank everyone for the rollercoaster of emotions. Excited to keep having meltdowns and exhilarating days throughout the next couple of weeks. So, since you guys are great forecasters, how come nobody is projecting a "similar" 4th weekend to Avatar considering TWOW has been outperforming it for almost every single day? Weekends 2 & 3 came a little lower than Avatar, but that's because xmas eve and NY eve falling on a Saturday right? So far it has managed to outpace Avatar almost every day since release except for holidays (falling on different days of the week). During it's first 10 days it managed to outpace Avatar by +$48M, and it has added an extra +$42M the last 10 days. It is currently outpacing Avatar by +$90M and that advantage has kept growing daily. Why does no one contemplate that TWOW could come close to Avatar's $50M 4th weekend. Am I missing something? Day TWOW To Date Avatar To Date Daily gain/loss daily % diff Cumulative gain/loss 1 $53,200,270 $53,200,270 $26,752,099 $26,752,099 $26,448,171 98.86% $26,448,171 2 $44,327,887 $97,528,157 $25,529,036 $52,281,135 $18,798,851 73.64% $45,247,022 3 $36,572,069 $134,100,226 $24,744,346 $77,025,481 $11,827,723 47.80% $57,074,745 4 $16,257,078 $150,357,304 $16,385,820 $93,411,301 -$128,742 -0.79% $56,946,003 5 $18,288,904 $168,646,208 $16,086,461 $109,497,762 $2,202,443 13.69% $59,148,446 6 $14,403,438 $183,049,646 $16,445,291 $125,943,053 -$2,041,853 -12.42% $57,106,593 7 $14,632,040 $197,681,686 $11,150,998 $137,094,051 $3,481,042 31.22% $60,587,635 8 $19,289,141 $216,970,827 $23,095,046 $160,189,097 -$3,805,905 -16.48% $56,781,730 9 $14,869,288 $231,840,115 $28,274,406 $188,463,503 -$13,405,118 -47.41% $43,376,612 10 $29,179,791 $261,019,906 $24,247,681 $212,711,184 $4,932,110 20.34% $48,308,722 11 $32,270,430 $293,290,336 $19,418,139 $232,129,323 $12,852,291 66.19% $61,161,013 12 $24,128,503 $317,418,839 $18,290,628 $250,419,951 $5,837,875 31.92% $66,998,888 13 $20,582,014 $338,000,853 $18,466,123 $268,886,074 $2,115,891 11.46% $69,114,779 14 $20,117,061 $358,117,914 $14,738,136 $283,624,210 $5,378,925 36.50% $74,493,704 15 $24,836,835 $382,954,749 $25,274,008 $308,898,218 -$437,173 -1.73% $74,056,531 16 $18,053,159 $401,007,908 $25,835,551 $334,733,769 -$7,782,392 -30.12% $66,274,139 17 $24,519,161 $425,527,069 $17,381,129 $352,114,898 $7,138,032 41.07% $73,412,171 18 $21,411,622 $446,938,691 $8,094,554 $360,209,452 $13,317,068 164.52% $86,729,239 19 $10,544,729 $457,483,420 $7,327,233 $367,536,685 $3,217,496 43.91% $89,946,735 20 $7,250,000 $464,733,420 $6,909,167 $374,445,852 $340,833 4.93% $90,287,568