Jerri Blank-Diggler

ERC's $1M CLUB: THURSDAY 1. CIVIL WAR ($1.6M) 2. MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE ($1.4M)* 3. ABIGAIL ($1M) *includes add’l previews

Box Office Pro Amateur’s new format is… squishy, to put it generously. They sort of predict a Top 3, but with colossal ranges for each film. They also include a “Wild Card” with an even larger range (and a misstated title, which does not increase confidence for the reader). They now assign “Showtime Marketshare (US)” to each film, which sounds intriguing, but there’s zero explanation of whether this is an estimate based on current bookings and/or some estimated weekend earnings. Finally there are some seemingly contradictory statements such as how Civil War “is retaining more than 3/4s of its IMAX screens on its second weekend,” but then they state how “Spy Code x Family: White [sic] is splitting IMAX locations with Civil War this weekend, currently claiming 20% more showtimes in the premium format than the A24 title.” How can Civil War retain ¾ of its IMAX screens BUT Spy x Family is also currently claiming 20% more IMAX showtimes than Civil War? {Btw, how is Dune 2’s supposed reentry into IMAX this weekend fitting into all this?} The Top 3 and the Ranges: 1. Abigail, BO Range of: $20-25 M (a very forgiving range of $5 M, reflecting 20%-25% of its total estimated OW value) 2. Civil War, BO Range of: $10-15 M (again, an even more forgiving range of $5 M, 33%-50% of its total estimated weekend) 3. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, BO Range of $7-14 M (a $7 M range, a rare feat of creating a range that could double the lower end; remember, this is the same film that BOP BOA reported a week ago as originally opening last weekend with a range of $6-10 M; now that the film's actual weekend is nigh, the range has swollen rather than contracted) 4. “Wild Card:” the hilariously misnamed “Spy Code x Family: White”; BO Range of $7-15 M (an $8 M range on a potential $7 M earner; so broad it potentially swallows up both Civil War and Ministry, or maybe not; they cannot commit) These broad ranges render the entire forecasting exercise meaningless. And with these ranges, how exactly does Box Office Amateur still come up with fixed “Showtime Marketshares (US)” as follows: o Abigail: 17% o Civil War: 11% (even though apparently retaining 75% of IMAX theaters) o Ministry: 14% (but states it is opening in under 3000 theaters) o "Spy Code x Family" (sic): 10% [BOP/BOA don’t estimate a location count, but from other sources, it seems to be only around 2000, far fewer than the others, but yet the marketshare is only 1% less than Civil War?] There may be some useful details in this preview, but it’s hard to know which ones to take seriously. BOP à BOA à DOA?

The opening paragraphs of the Deadline Sunday update also include some relevant mentions about where the film is overperforming. I have bold italicized the points I thought were relevant to speculations around the Texas market. Austin, Waco, and El Paso are all singled out. It's striking that "the best regions" for CW cited below ("South, South Central and West") are all ones that are breakaway regions in the movie. (Is it a coincidence that Deadline highlights the strong performance of the movie in Oklahoma City and Charlottesville, cities known for infamous deadly attacks?) "A24 is calling Civil War at a $25.7M opening largely fueled by a Democrat and Liberal moviegoers, but with overperforming business in some Red state regions like the South and Southwest. Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak polled Civil War attendees’ politics reporting that 22% considered themselves Liberal, 19% were Democrats, 11% considered themselves moderate, whereas registered Republicans (6%), Evangelical Christians (6%) and politically conservative folks (5%) showed up as a minority. Of those markets that overperformed were LA, San Francisco, DC, Phoenix, Austin, including Navy hub San Diego and conservative market Denver. But then there were these smaller regional markets that rallied including El Paso and Waco TX, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, NM and Charlottesville, VA. As we told you, South, South Central and West were the best regions for A24 release which follows are journalists chronicling a divided, violent America." https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-civil-war-1235882968/

I had never heard of Santikos before coming to BOT, so I just researched it a bit. All its 10 theaters emanate out of its headquarters in San Antonio ("Remember the Alamo!"), TX, an area which has seen its share of wars over time. Pure spitball that this area might be especially primed to see a movie depicting a Texas uprising against larger government (which is mentioned in trailers). It's also not exactly a secret that Texans like to joke about Texas being its own country anyway. I don't mean this disparagingly; pre-COVID, I spent weeks at a time for work in Houston & Dallas, and I met plenty of well-educated lifelong Texans (many liberal) who still joked with barely concealed pride about Texas being so different from the rest of the US. The Texas-California alliance against the US mentioned in CW trailers could be subliminal catnip in the Santikos geography. Further, San Antonio is educated and somewhat liberal from everything I've read, so another decent chunk of its population might also be the A24 types. All that is to say, I would not be surprised to see these theaters overindexing. I also read that "Santikos Entertainment is a for-profit company that exists for the sole purpose of giving back to non-profits in the San Antonio area in the form of donations, sponsorships, grants, and programming." That makes it fairly unique among theater chains, and again suggests that it might attract a larger percentage of the audience that wants to feel like their ticket money is going to local causes and might already know about A24/Garland. Again, nothing above meant as disparaging, just observational. I'm going to especially enjoy following your Santikos tracking moving forward.

Already really miss your presence at Box Office Pro, @Shawn Robbins! BOP have wasted no time in starting to circle the drain. In today's Weekend "Preview" Predictions, they give a $10 million OW range of $20-30 M for Civil War.... and even more alarmingly, they incorrectly state that *Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare* is opening this weekend. Also no weekend chart, no real data. There is nothing "Pro" about BOP anymore. #BoxOfficeAmateurish https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-preview-civil-war-aims-to-unseat-godzilla-x-kong-from-top-spot/

According to Deadline, AtK seems to not be getting a Canadian theatrical release at all. He ascribes the loss of about $1 million on its OW to AtK's theatrical absence in Canada: "Despite excellent holds by the big guns, it’s unfortunately, the middle of the box office dropped out — and that’s where the marketplace is still weak, post pandemic and post strikes. Lionsgate’s Mark Wahlberg dog adventure racing movie came in below in its projects at $7.5M. The movie was forecasted to do $8M-$10M. Important to note that the movie did not have Canada in its mix. The movie is on a Prime Video window there, but for a later release. Even if it did have Canada, we’re talking $8.5M, which is still underwhelming." https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-dune-part-two-arthur-the-king-1235859800/

Is there some reason *Immaculate* didn't make the chart at all? After Sydney Sweeney seemed to be everywhere in early 2024, hosting SNL, leading a potential Rom-Comaissance with ABY, etc. (ignoring the Madame Web over in the corner of the room), it feels strange that this horror film with her front & center is flying so far under the radar just days before its release.

TOO EARLY TOP 5 (ERC) 1. KFP4 ($33M) 2. DUNE 2 ($30M) 3. ARTHUR THE KING ($8M) 4. IMAGINARY ($5.5M) 5. CABRINI ($2.8M) https://x.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1769019650963308730?s=20

Thanks for that. I always look forward to your showtime report. Late last night (early Friday AM East Coast time), Box Office Report published the following in its Weekend Predictions: "This weekend will also see A24's Love Lies Bleeding expand to semi-wide release and Focus's The American Society of Magical Negroes and Bleecker Street's One Life debut in semi-wide release. Love Lies Bleeding will be playing in an estimated 1,000 locations this weekend, while The American Society of Magical Negroes will be playing in 1,147 locations and One Life will be playing in 983 locations. http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20240314.html

Theater counts: Kung Fu Panda dethrones Dune to become the new widest release (The Numbers) After spending its first two weeks as the widest release in North America, Dune: Part Two slips into the second place spot this week, dropping 227 locations, while still playing in a solid 3,847 cinemas. Taking its place this week is last week’s newcomer , Kung Fu Panda 4, which increases its viewing opportunities by adding 32 theaters for a total of 4,067 locations. Theater Counts for March 15 Movie Distributor Theaters Previous Theaters Change Kung Fu Panda 4 Universal Pictures 4,067 4,035 +32 Dune: Part Two Warner Bros. 3,847 4,074 -227 Imaginary Lionsgate 3,118 3,118 Arthur The King Lionsgate 3,003 New Cabrini Angel Studios 2,850 2,840 +10 Bob Marley: One Love Paramount Pictures 2,272 2,764 -492 Ordinary Angels Lionsgate 1,753 2,323 -570 Oppenheimer Universal Pictures 1,230 642 +588 The American Society of Magical Negroes Focus Features 1,147 New Madame Web Sony Pictures 1,058 2,015 -957 One Life Bleecker Street 983 New Love Lies Bleeding theater count was not listed. Does anyone know roughly how many theaters it's expanding into this week? In my region (which has more than 3 million people), it's not opening widely, more on par with American Society and One Life. Is that the case more broadly? Remainder of list at: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/256450830-Theater-counts-Kung-Fu-Panda-dethrones-Dune-to-become-the-new-widest-release

In Variety's Weekend Box Office Predictions (published today), they mention that "“Dune 2” has generated $162 million domestically and $375 million globally." Box Office: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Poised to Rule Again as Mark Wahlberg’s ‘Arthur the King’ Targets $10 Million Debut https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-mark-wahlberg-arthur-the-king-opening-weekend-estimates-1235940972/

Variety's Weekend Predictions: KFP4: $28-30 M Dune 2: $24-27 M Arthur the King: $8-10 M American Society: "low-single digits" Love Lies Bleeding: not mentioned Article also mentions that "“Dune 2” has generated $162 million domestically and $375 million globally." (Someone had asked whether it has now passed $400 million globally.) Box Office: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Poised to Rule Again as Mark Wahlberg’s ‘Arthur the King’ Targets $10 Million Debut https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-mark-wahlberg-arthur-the-king-opening-weekend-estimates-1235940972/

Weekend Box Office Forecast (Box Office Pro): ARTHUR THE KING Opens Following KUNG FU PANDA 4 and DUNE: PART TWO Breakouts https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-arthur-the-king-opens-following-kung-fu-panda-4-and-dune-part-two-breakouts/ Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd Kung Fu Panda 4 Universal Pictures $32,900,000 $109,200,000 -43% Dune: Part Two Warner Bros. Pictures $29,700,000 $205,400,000 -36% Arthur the King Lionsgate $12,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW Imaginary Lionsgate $5,400,000 $18,800,000 -46% Cabrini Angel Studios $4,000,000 $14,100,000 -44%

Theater counts: Dune narrowly holds off Kung Fu Panda to remain widest release (The Numbers) March 7, 2024 Theater Counts for March 8 Movie Distributor Theaters Previous Theaters Change Dune: Part Two Warner Bros. 4,074 4,071 +3 Kung Fu Panda 4 Universal Pictures 4,035 New Imaginary Lionsgate 3,118 New Cabrini Angel Studios 2,840 New Bob Marley: One Love Paramount Pictures 2,764 3,390 -626 Ordinary Angels Lionsgate 2,323 3,020 -697 Madame Web Sony Pictures 2,015 3,116 -1,101 Migration Universal Pictures 1,503 2,204 -701 Wonka Warner Bros. 1,004 1,732 -728 Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—To the Hashira Training Sony Pictures 884 1,949 -1,065 Argylle Universal Pictures 793 2,283 -1,490 Poor Things Searchlight Pictures 700 550 +150 Remainder of list at https://www.the-numbers.com/news/256400830-Theater-counts-Dune-narrowly-holds-off-Kung-Fu-Panda-to-remain-widest-release

The Angel Studios website currently shows that Total Pre-Sales for Cabrini are at ~473,000 tickets pre-sold. (This number has grown by ~200,000 in 2 days.) Of course there's no time period for ticket use given, but the majority seem to be purchased for the weekend as pointed out by El Sid, etc. It seems like Regal's portal is not directly connected to the Angel Studios booking website, so the count is probably not fully live, which means this number may not capture all current pre-sales. At the $15 face value ascribed to the tickets by Angel Studios, that equates to ~$7,095,000 in pre-sales. Of course there has been rampant discounting (a 15% discount is still occurring on the Angel website), so would a fair average be around $12? If so, that equates to about $5,676,000 in pre-sales. Since today is classified as opening day, then pre-sales for today would not be attributed to the weekend. To be cautious and estimate that $500,000 of those are for today, after subtracting those out, then that points to ~$5,176,000+ of additional pre-sales going into the weekend.