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Bob Train

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Everything posted by Bob Train

  1. Bob Train
    Spider-Verse is showing signs of strong legs (for a CBM), not fan-driven frontload. Thursday previews are lower than Guardians 3 but overall weekend is higher. And Spider-Verse had summer weekdays previews, which hypothetically should have caused it to be more preview-loaded than Guardians, but obviously it isn't, showing strong legs. It's gonna have great legs and play throughout the Summer and the haters are going to seethe.
  2. Bob Train
    Why would Paramount kick the marketing into high gear 6 weeks before a film releases, and when they have another film coming out next week? Did Universal market Fast X very heavily the weekend Mario came out, because that was 6 weeks before Fast X came out? No they didn't. Marketing is rarely heavy this far out.
  3. Bob Train
    If the demand is there (and trust me, it will be), then losing PLFs will have a limited effect. Top Gun 2 had a good drop when it lost PLFs to Dominion and even after losing more screens to Thor 4, Lightyear, and Minions 2 the holds were still good. This will probably make half of Top Gun domestically and it would still make a billion because it's huge in Korea, Japan, India, and does well in Europe and China.
  4. Bob Train
    Impressive for ATSV to (probably) beat GOTGV3 OW with slightly lower previews. Shows strong legs.
  5. Bob Train
    No Indy film has ever had bad reviews. They've all been above 75 on RT.
  6. Bob Train
    July is shaping up to be huge for adult-skewing movies. Oppenheimer and Mission Impossible will do great among adult men and Barbie will breakout among adult women.
  7. Bob Train
    Fair enough. I could see something like 550m dom/500m int happening.
  8. Bob Train
    Just watched the movie and I knew it would be good but holy shit
  9. Bob Train
    My prediction is that it will be underestimated because movies that are a part 2 are always underestimated (Endgame, HP8, etc.). But I think roughly 200m OW is reasonable and maybe 600m total (Literally no competition in April just like Mario) for a 1.2 billion worldwide assuming excellent reception.
  10. Bob Train
    GOTG3 still has a strong chance of beating GOTG2 worldwide. It's run isn't over yet lol.
  11. Bob Train
    I don't know if TLM will be able to replicate the late legs of Aladdin. Unless something goes wrong it's hitting 300+, but Aladdin didn't drop more than 34% from the 4th to 11th weekend, with the average drop being like 25%. Fortunately it's been doing much better than how dire things seemed on Sunday.
  12. Bob Train
    Making hundreds of millions for the studio does not count as rewarding quality? Many excellent and great Indie/smaller films bomb hard.
  13. Bob Train
    The only big-budget movie released in September was a smash hit (Shang-Chi). The It movies also did very well in that month. Studios don't put movies there because they want Summer Weekdays or Thanksgiving/Holiday boosts, but if the competition is tough in those 2 spots like it is this year, then a September release may be superior.
  14. Bob Train
    Did they ever make that much from China in the first place, given how China barely gives back to the studio? F8 was the peak of the franchise in China, but even still Universal probably got back under 100 million in China. They probably got more from the US, with 125 million assuming standard rates.
  15. Bob Train
    Sad seeing international numbers keep going down for TLM and Spider-Verse on OW Hopefully Transformers bucks the trend
  16. Bob Train
    Disney is really trying to get Quantumania above Ant-Man 2. It's been in theaters longer than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder and Disney did lots of double features with Guardians. It's made 1.5 million since the week Guardians opened. Don't see it succeeding though, as it's still 2.2 million below Ant-Man 2.
  17. Bob Train
    If Disney has already locked in screens for Indiana Jones' second weekend, couldn't they move MI up to a Monday opening instead of Wednesday? Do a 7 day opening weekend? Spider-Man: Far From Home did a 6 day opening weekend so it's not unprecedented.
  18. Bob Train
    Was it really China that killed F&F or insane budgets?
  19. Bob Train
    Animated films get more international-heavy as they go on. Mario started out 55/45 but it's gonna end 43/57. Minions 2 started out 55/45 and ended 40/60. Granted, both films had some INT markets opening late but it's still true. I think it could be 47-50% of gross from domestic when the run is done.
  20. Bob Train
    How is this critic proof? We've never gotten and Indy film with poor reviews before? Even KOTCS had roughly 80% RT. Nothing in the franchise has ever indicated that it's in the vein of F&F or Jurassic World.
  21. Bob Train
    Uh...It's not gonna catch Mario...Let's nip that idea in the bud right now. Nothing is indicating that.
  22. Bob Train
    Wonder how much Across the Spider-Verse will hurt TLM. On one hand it's a 100m+ opener and will take IMAX. On the other hand, TLM wasn't *that* IMAX heavy and Spider-Verse showings are still very limited and not enough so maybe that will help TLM.
  23. Bob Train
    If they couldn't learn from Mario, I doubt Across the spider-verse will enlighten them.
  24. Bob Train
    Elio could do okay I think tbh. I'll wait for the trailer though before saying anything. Could easily be another Elemental/Lightyear
  25. Bob Train
    Spider-Verse is gonna come somewhat close to $150m just in domestic OW
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