Bob Train

Across won't hit a billion but Beyond could

Will the old people crowd really show up for this one? They showed up to Top Gun because it was actually good. And based off the trailer and marketing it doesn't exactly seem like Disney is targeting them (with lines like "it's called capitalism" and sidelining Indy in favor of PWB). Top Gun 2 did it much better, but legacy sequels don't always succeed.

DND also had unanimous acclaim but that had poor legs. Some properties are inherently frontloaded, which means good WOM can only do so much.

Fast X should get to around 750m, but TLM would only get to around 500 with a generous 3x multiplier + 20 million Japan. Assuming 150m DOM/140m CHINA/460m INT for Fast X and 270m DOM/5m CHINA/225 INT for TLM, calculating it out Fast X should receive ≈300m in theatrical revenue vs ≈250m for TLM. However, Fast X will likely end up losing more money theatrically because of the high budget, but both are likely ending up as money losers theatrically. Out of the big 3 May tentpoles this year, only GOTGV3 is looking good.

350m dom 400m int

Mission Impossible IS hitting a billion. It is inevitable. It will happen. It can't be stopped anymore. Other than that, I'm not optimistic.

If it opened to 60m (it won't) that would be terrible, because without the Holiday season it would end up under ITSV, which would be abysmal. Negative % chance that happens though.

TLM will drop harder next weekend than Fast X did this weekend imo. There was a surge of African-American woman watching the movie to support Halle which inflated the weekend and caused insane numbers in heavily AA areas but meh everywhere else. Without that it will tank.

No, Oscars still don't care for animation

Review bombing has no quantifiable effect on the box office or anything, really, and does not hurt the financial prospects of any movie, TV show, or other forms of media. Captain Marvel, The Last Jedi, etc. made a billion despite review bombing from basement dwellers, proving it has no effect. There are precisely 0 examples of a movie failing financially because of review bombing (no, TLM doesn't count, deadline). It has literally no effect on anything and I'm not sure why people care so much about. I think if the media stopped bombarding people with headlines about it, then it would go away.

Not a huge fan of the animation style.

What about Halle Bailey stans spamming review sites with 10. Does that not also count as review bombing??? There are current more 10s than 2s, 3s, and 4s combined.

I'm thinking GOTGV3 ends it's run with $350m or so. Spider-Verse and Flash will cut off the legs but it's fine because it's already successful. Maybe 55-60% drop next weekend for Guardians.

Yeah. Anti-Disney sentiment is highly limited and if it exists it only extends to their animated projects and probably makes no difference anyways. Avatar 2 making 2.3b should have vanquished this argument.

It's gonna end with Quantumania totals +/- 50 million worldwide on a budget 50 million higher. It is a flop, no doubt about it. Opening weekend was frontloaded. The IM was on par with Fast X (≈9.2x), despite that being the 10th installment in a fan-driven franchise that is running out of gas domestically, and this being a female-skewing PG kids movie. I have extremely low expectations for the legs, and would not be surprised if drops 60%+, if not 65%+ next weekend.

Most people don't care about whatever Disney/Desantis conflict exists. Hatred towards Disney is, by and large, by terminally online conservatives and doesn't extend to real people. Also not sure if people associate Lucasfilm with Disney, because they sure as hell don't associate Fox or Marvel with Disney.

Man this movie flopping will give fuel to a lot of terrible people. Disappointing but it is what it is.

domestic OW was showing signs of frontloaded. Had the same IM as Fast X. Would not be surprised if the second-weekend drop of TLM is worse than the second-weekend drop of Fast X. $250m domestic and $225m international for $475m worldwide.

$150-160m 5-day $95-105m 3-day $400-450m final 1.1b-1.2b worldwide depending on China Not the best release date tbh. They should move it a weekend up. Nothing will be making more than $30m that weekend with how Indy is looking. I think the budget is higher because they paid Cruise more upfront, although I dunno I could see it being lower since they filmed them together. Budgeting for multi-part films is tricky.

It's animated and has Summer weekdays so I think it can get 3x legs. The list of well-received animated movies under 3x is incredibly short. However, I think competition may limit it. Not a great release date, in between Guardians and Flash.

Don't see why "one of the best superhero movie ever" or "best DC since TDK" marketing would hurt presales. Disney used "best MCU films" and "best MCU since Endgame" to market Guardians in the final days and it worked as presales outpaced Ant-Man, even though by all accounts movies like Shang-Chi and No Way Home had better RT and Metacritic scores.

How much will it make in Japan? 20m?

Who else could they conceivably pay off for marketing? Kanye?

I don't think "best superhero movie of all time" marketing will hurt it. Disney marketed Guardians 3 with "best Marvel movie" clickbait and it worked.

Solo flopped because Disney oversaturated the market by releasing Solo and TLJ within 5 months of each other.