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Relevation

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Everything posted by Relevation

  1. Relevation
    I’m thinking 7x off $6.8-7.2M previews, so around $47-50M OW
  2. Relevation
    It probably won’t but I’m not expecting much better. 78-79% drop, $11.5-12.0M weekend
  3. Relevation
    Elemental $20M (-32%) Spider-Verse $19M (-30%) No Hard Feelings $16M (NEW) Transformers $12M (-42%) Asteroid City $11M (+1309%) The Flash $10M (-82%)
  4. Relevation
    What if it drops to 5th
  5. Relevation
    Would think that since it’s gonna be a more fan driven, slightly older skewing family-ish film… maybe stuff like The Little Mermaid and Across the Spider-Verse?
  6. Relevation
    Honestly both $60M+ Maybe even both $70M+
  7. Relevation
    Don’t mean to doom and gloom, but if Indy has a terrible final week like the Flash did with no review bump to increase demand at the end, and audience reception is mediocre leading to a bad IM…
  8. Relevation
    r/agedlikemilk
  9. Relevation
    Yikes, a second weekend of $13-18M. Elemental should probably beat that with a drop around 35-40%, right?
  10. Relevation
    What kind of second weekend drop are we seeing for The Flash? 70%+?
  11. Relevation
    Call me crazy but Elemental DOM 2nd Weekend > Flash DOM 2nd Weekend Elemental - 38% drop off $33M to $20.5M | Flash - 70% drop off $53M to $15.6M
  12. Relevation
    The PostTrak exits for The Flash suuuuuuuuck. Could we be seeing a L&T style 4.97x IM?
  13. Relevation
    Interesting. I checked their Thurs preview guess for The Little Mermaid and it was $10M+ (actual $10.3M), so I’d be very surprised if they ended up being over a million off here on Elemental.
  14. Relevation
    Flash goes up from $9M to $10M I think Elemental I have no clue, it could stay flat with $3.5M, drop off to $3M, or ascend to $4M+
  15. Relevation
    That is a really healthy preview number for Elemental given what it was looking like from trackers. I’m feeling a 13-14x IM and $45-50M for the weekend.
  16. Relevation
    Whoooooah the fuck Has Deadline ever projected that much higher than trackers here for an animated film? I feel like they usually underball
  17. Relevation
    Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank was the only non-IP animated summer release that I could find post-COVID, and that had a 12.39x IM. Elemental will have the Father’s Day bump to I think that gets this up to 13-14x
  18. Relevation
    Yikes. Was hoping it could have a stronger finish given the backloaded initial presales. I still think it could have a stronger than expected IM given the positive audience reception overseas, sooooo 13-14x to $32-45M? Maybe it’s hopedicting idk
  19. Relevation
    So, the general drift I’m getting from the final day of sales is $2.5-3.5M previews for Elemental and $8.5-10M for The Flash?
  20. Relevation
    @M37 Could you make a forecast matrix for Elemental based on the final day of sales?
  21. Relevation
    From what I’ve been seeing it’s been having solid growth from Orlando for the last week. Could it potentially overindex to $3.5-4M?
  22. Relevation
    Over/Under 6x IM?
  23. Relevation
    The fact that it could potentially end up making more money than this domestically is even crazier.
  24. Relevation
    I’m thinking it will. The positive surge in reception and the wild card family factor could result in a Transformers-style late surge, resulting in $3.5M previews and a 13x IM to $45-46M for the weekend. That’s over the $44M that the worst case scenario for The Flash entails.
  25. Relevation
    Holy shit if it did 8 x 5.5 That would literally be low enough for Elemental to open at #1
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