Relevation

My original post wasn’t saying it would do $50M Fri, it was saying that the TS movie did $50M in total sales in its first 24 hrs. But to elaborate on my weekend split, here’s how we get to the numbers I threw out. I took a quick glance my local market to see showtimes, and I count 70 showtimes off 10 theaters for Friday including smaller and larger theaters. So, let’s average that off and say the average theater can fit 7 showtimes for TS for Friday. Now for ATP, I do think you’re underestimating the ATP since A - you neglected to factor in the PLF ticket price bump where tickets are going for like $22-23 and B - There is not gonna be a full 25% under 12 for this movie. Endgame had 18% families, including parents. Now I recognize that prob skewed a bit older but still, 25% is huge. I’d personally wager around like 15% under 12. Using my local market as a comp again, those 70 showtimes were 78.57% standard and 21.43% PLF. If we assume all parents are taking their kids to regular standard, then you’re looking at a split of 15% child price, 63% standard price, and 21% PLF price assuming Friday is filled to capacity (which at some theaters in this 10 theater sample I’m using has already happened after two days). So using a flat $22 price for all PLF shows, that math gets me an ATP of $19.12. So if we run with an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeen 150 seats * 7 showings = 1,050 admissions per theater 1,050 admissions * $19.12 ATP = $20,076 per theater average $20,076 * 4000 locations results in a Friday gross of $80,304,000 if all showings are filled to capacity. So from there, I don’t think $70M is that hard. Ill do my shpeel for SAT and SUN later, this took longer than I expected lol

Alright bet $70M Fri / $115M Sat / $115M Sun

It’s a minimum of 4 weeks and it can go for as long as 26 weeks, as shown here

My numbers currently have it as the second biggest movie of all time domestically. $50M day one sales with tons of shows being added today and strong post-weekend sales makes me think this is gonna open bananas and still have strong legs to boot. Off a $50M day one I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say $300M for the opening weekend given Endgame got to $357M off a smaller day one. From there I think a 3x multi is on the table given that opening weekend is going to sell out and burn off demand is gonna be huge. $300M OW and 3x legs gets me $900M domestic. Yes, a $900M domestic movie spawned into existence two days ago. 2023 rules.

Put me down for $200M+ opening weekend.

Well that just immediately offset any losses the box office took this year due to Dune 2 moving

Do you have a Meg 2 comp, since that’s also a GA heavy WB sequel to a 2018 movie with an abbreviated sales window

Who cares, no one has peacock FNAF $100M OW trust the process

Think the issue there is that Elemental is losing another 500 locations this week to Haunted Mansion and running into its first real family competition of its entire run. 48% is a bit much but I don’t think this’ll be in the single digits or anything. Maybe a 25% drop.

Barbie - $100.04M Oppenheimer - $60.68M

Holy shit… would that not entail a SUN-MON drop of sub-35% for Oppenheimer?

Technically I’m late by an hour but just for the record BARBIE - $180.56M OPPENHEIMER - $90.51M TOTAL - $271.07M

Could we see a better IM than Dunkirk’s 9.1x, maybe closer to 10x? You could extrapolate to some really big numbers off an IM that big

That FRI jump is insane. Like frankly could we see something close to $10M previews and a 10x IM?

Clearly you forgot the inevitable 7th highest grossing movie of 2023

Is that $4.5M for Sound of Freedom’s THURS? If so then holy shit

Deadass tho I think it passes Multiverse of Madness WW total

Yeah this is around where I’m at

That seems like a great jump for Oppenheimer and it’s been on a strong upward trajectory against Fast X for the last few weeks, could it target a $70M weekend?

Does this mean the ROTB comp finally exceeded $20 million

I’m personally really high on Oppenheimer ($9M previews, 7.78x IM) but even I can admit Barbie is blowing it out of the water lmao. $120M Barbie, $70M Oppenheimer

Yiiiikes. Could we be in for something like $6.5M previews, 7x IM, $45-46M weekend?

I think this will be a huge opener, one of the biggest of the year. And then it has a 1.6x multi. $60M-$90M OW, $95M-$145M DOM