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Everything posted by toutvabien
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Well, Elemental is already showing signs of audiences unlearing the wait-to-stream behavior and if Disney doubles down on that with lengthy theatrical exclusivity for it, Wish and Elio, I think that will build great momentum for Inside Out 2 to utilize all its box office potential and play out like a sequel to a massively successful and beloved film would.
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2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
toutvabien replied to The Wild Eric's topic in Box Office Discussion
Assuming MI7, Barbie, Dune, The Marvels and Aquaman all do $600M+ worldwide, The Little Mermaid is gonna be the 10th biggest Hollywood film globally this year with a sub $600M total. Damn. -
I was thinking of the state of franchises and IPs and Jumanji came to mind and I've been thinking, how on Earth have they not made another one of these already after how insanely successful the last two were just a couple years ago? Apparently they are working on another one but you'd think that would have a new installment ready to go by now.
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Since she stars in the film and I've seen her potential impact referenced here, they did probably think getting Waller-Bridge would increase interest in millennial and Gen Z women, but I don't think that was all that well utilized. Which makes me think, Waller-Bridge would be one of the most interesting voices in a possible come back era for the adult comedy in theaters we been talking about. But yea, I don't know how much interest she has in all that. A co-star role in big franchise like Indy is a crazy gig for her and she's doing a Tomb Raider show for Amazon so her career aspirations seem elsewhere for now.
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That's why I pointed out these leggy runs, those past few years have been such a mixed bag for them. Also, context is important; No Way Home released during Christmas. Shang-Chi and Guardians 3 didn't maximize their OW potential and ended up meeting that demand later in their runs for different reasons. Similarly, even though Love and Thunder's ×2.38 isn't a bottom 5 multiplier, it's very bad for that release date slot - anything else Marvel has released in July has been on the leggier side. It's almost worse in comparison to (already bad) Multiverse of Madness' ×2.19, which is more in line with May openers - it took the record from Civil War's ×2.28 iirc. Black Widow was a Disney+ simultaneous release. Wakanda Forever's legs on the other hand, I believe fall in line with the average Marvel November opener. That should be The Marvels' goal.
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It's outperforming The Good Dinosaur in like for like markets which made $209m back in 2015. So, don't know what that translates to 8 years later... but with UK, Japan and still more to come, $200m OS seems within the realm of possibility. Combined with a likely $110-120m+ domestic run, this could crack $300m worldwide. If Disney keeps it fairly theatrically exclusive through at least Labor Day, this bodes well for the future of WDAS and Pixar non-IP flicks.