rebelscum86

I honestly have no clue what Get Out is about from the trailer and I don't consider that a good thing. I'm buying a product not a tone. It's probably a thriller, but is it paranormal? Is the sound just sound track or worse marketing or is it diegetic sound and it's a hypnotism thing? guy goes home to meet girlfriend's family and it doesn't go as planned he might be in danger is not enough. A trailer should give the log line / high concept and genre. A24 is terribly guilty of this and why their Cinemascores are so bad. It was like pulling teeth trying to find out if Hereditary was paranormal. I like the paranormal. I have 0 interest in it's just actually mental health. I don't appreciate horror movies where the twist is what genre is it? If it's paranormal or monsters I will watch, if it's not I won't like it.

If you go to yahoo finance, open Disney's 10k, look for consolidate balance sheets in part 2, at close of fiscal year 2022 they had $11.6b cash, true, but there are 2 important caveats. They were down 4.5b in just cash from 2021, and their payables were $20.2b almost 10b more than cash. their total current assets minus total current liabilities just left them $25m. That's razor thin. They CAN pay their bills but they CAN'T afford any new interest expense at that margin, especialy with the higher interest rates, and after all these losses this year I expect it to be worse next report. this is a company that spends tens of billions to make single digit billions and they are now spending more in expenses to earn less. Their operating expenses were 65b in 2019 for a net revenue of 10b. In 2022 their operating expenses were 75b for a net revenue of 3b.

I would also give it to The Ring, hugely effective on me since I was a videofile. Hereditary is solid but didn't affect me much (I think even Paranormal Activity was creepier and more clever). I won't watch Get Out b/c I hate deceptive advertising; which was also a knock I had on Hereditary though I was able to get some spoilers for that one to confirm the genre.

Their 10k report. (I'm a CPA so I fully understand it) It's scary. They have tremendous value in assets and IP (I think it was something like 170b), but they have very low liquid assets, and extremely high debt ( I think it was 50-70b). They are carrying $10 in debt for every $1 cash they have. If they can't generate cash I expect they may have to start liquidating assets in 1-2 years.

the same way Dwayne Johnson movies are profitable. Star Qaulity matters more internationally, while IP completely trounces star power domestically.

it's a bit different when you have a winner among a bunch of losers. GOTG3 is the highest grossing summer release so far and sure studios want that, but with all their other flops Disney is far in the red over all and it is scary how tight their financial health is. They have low cash and can't afford the interest payments on new debt if they needed a substantial amount.

why is a movie about saving kids who have been trafficked right wing?

also you could say the US tracking it showing a bump if Dead Reckoning plays like Rogue Nation and Fallout, that's 8m x 10IMx3.5legs/.3(its 30/70 Dom/Intl split)= 933m

the maverick boost is likely to come in the intl gross which we don't have tracking on.

how did you get an IM of 7-8 for 5 days?

I would take that. 220m with a 70% Intl split like they usually do gives it $730m WW though I do expect an increas over Fallout with these tracking numbers, great franchis goodwill, and Tom Cruise coming off Maverick. I think it's tracking to 850m and could see it getting close to $1b if there is intl growth thanks to Maverick.

So it's tracking better, but it doesn't count this time b/c other movies are out? I'm sorry but that's just silly. Every movie has to deal with other movies being in theaters and losing screens. This is a thread about modeling actual data. You can say you don't think the legs will be as good this time to hit 3.5 but you can't say it's tracking poorly and looks like it won't open well.

Thinking further even Ghost Protocol which had a really funky release and weird run, was released in 400 theaters, had 1m in previews and opened to 12m, so again 10x the preview, It expanded to wide release over Christmas and went on to 210m Domestic.

Have you 2 even seen an Mission Impossible release before? 8m with a 5 day would be great. This is an incredibly consistent franchise. It's going to hav 3.5x legs, and they typically make 4.5x budget (though that is inflated this time) Rogue Nation had 4m previews opened to 55m and made 200m Fallout had 6m previews opened to 60m and made 220m Dead Reckoning having 8m previews gives it 80m opening and 280m domestic