Jump to content

SoSaysI

Free Account+
  • Content Count

    444
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by SoSaysI


  1. 1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

    hard to say  TLJ got an A and we have definitive proof that film was not as well received as a A cinemascore. 

     

     

    (or else this would beating TLJ in the opening or matching it) 

     

     

    Yeah, that was meaningless for TLJ.  From all accounts I’ve seen (people I know, RT, various message boards) the consensus I’ve seen is that people are enjoying it and are satisfied with the conclusion.  

    • Like 1

  2. 1 minute ago, Firepower said:

    To be honest that "record" (less than both TFA and TLJ) doesn't mean anything, Star Wars is very frontloaded franchise, maybe the most frontloaded, let's see its holds over the next few days.

    That really isn't true at all.  It may be frontloaded over its opening weekends but the movies tend to have good legs overall for big blockbusters. 


  3. 7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

     

    They should let it rest for 10+ years and develop a new story that has nothing to do with the original movies. 

    I mean with the way society moves on from things these days even 3 years with no Star Wars movies might be fine but they need a new and compelling story not tied at all to the main saga or its characters in my opinion.


  4. 1 hour ago, John Marston said:

    while the OT has not been tarnished, this was really the only chance they would ever get to make a Sequel Trilogy. Now with Carrie gone, and Harrison and Mark too old, they'll never get that opportunity again. 

    And while I won’t see the movie until tonight it’s also obvious Carrie Fisher’s death impacted the plan they did have for this film as it really did seem like each movie was going to focus on one of the main OT characters.  They almost certainly would have been better off editing Last Jedi after she passed away to keep Luke alive.  They wouldn’t have had to kill her off in that one but could have done whatever they do in this one and you’d still have an original saga main character to get a lot of focus.

    • Like 1

  5. 1 hour ago, mikee11 said:

    The initial numbers say a lot about what condition TLJ left the franchise in.Batman V Superman comparison is apt in this case. Ofc the next drops and the legs are all down to the movie itself, but I don't see how people can deny anymore how toxic TLJ was to the brand

    Following the tracking thread, the presale numbers were very good and seemed to be ramping up normally until reviews hit.  I think TLJ being divisive hurt any chance of a major breakout and increase for the Rise of Skywalker but the movie getting a tepid response is going to be a major factor in any drop. 


  6. 5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

    Yeah, but, again...that leaves us with Solo. Probably with even less box office potential, due to the brand not being attractive in Asia and Latin America and a lack of familiarity everywhere else. I definitely see the appeal of starting fresh, but I'm just trying to look at it from the box office perspective and... yeah, it's not going to be easy, and it might require them burning some money to build goodwill and hope for a Batman Begins - TDK situation.

    It doesn't though.  Solo was directly connected to a character in the OT and a character no one wanted to see played by another actor.  I thought it was a fun movie but there was no imagination there and it wasn't a new idea bringing us new characters we hadn't seen before within the Star Wars universe.


  7. Just now, pepsa said:

    I can't wait for them to do something totaly unrelated in the SW universe. So that there is no bagage just telling a story that they find interesting with out their hands being tied.

    That actually should have happened already and the fact the first two spin offs were so closely tied to main saga and their characters showed a lack of vision at Lucasfilm.  I've enjoyed all 4 movies thus far (and I'm still excited about Episode IX but that has been my biggest complaint thus far.  I just don't think Kennedy has a good vision of what Star Wars can be. 


  8. 2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

    Star Wars' failure in China goes well beyond Rian Johnson to be honest. RO saw a 50% drop off after TFA. The whole thing was trending down in the first place because China simply does not have a connection to Star Wars like many other markets. The market didn't like TFA in the first place. It had a respectable total on the basis of hype from the other markets.

    Yep, if this drops domestically and in Europe you can point to Rian Johnson.  In China the Last Jedi really has nothing to do with this drop.  The drop from TFA to TLJ was massive in the first place.


  9. 51 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

    It beat AEG at Atom for the first hour

    It beat all SW films for the first few hours at Fandango

     

    Could as easily be below TLJ for the first 24 as above it.  If it beat TLJ there should have been "only second to TFA statements" b/c there would be absolutely no drawback to that.

    They might have wanted the higher than all other Star Wars headline which wouldn’t have been true for TFA but based on our numbers most think it did beat TLJ in presales in the first 24 hours although it may have been close either way.


  10. 30 minutes ago, Menor said:

    Rise of Skywalker Thursday and Friday (as of noon ET):

     

    Thursday:

    Theaters: 280 (+2)

    Showings: 2734 (+35)

    Sold Out Showings: 57 (+3)

    Tickets Sold: 120654 (+11452 since last night) (63% of Avengers: Endgame day 1 (est))

    Tickets Available: 395025 (+6206)

    Estimated ATP: 13.18 (+0.01)

    Estimated Sales: 1589599 (+151187)

    Estimated Nationwide Sales: 11.9 million (+1.1 million)

     

    Friday:

    Theaters: 281

    Showings: 4304

    Sold Out Showings: 37

    Tickets Sold: 67266 (making some eyeball estimates, probably about 35-40% of Endgame)

    Tickets Available: 667625

    Estimated ATP: 12.34

    Estimated Total Sales: 819482

    Estimated Nationwide Sales: 6.1 million 

     

    From this, total nationwide sales might be in the 24-25 million range. 

     

    Edit: upped my multipliers based on the ones for Joker

     

     

     

     

    The 63% is to Endgame's total Day 1 total right?  If so that seems pretty good with about 8 hours left (from noon est) for TROS's opening day sales.


  11. 11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

    Those OUATIH estimates seem off. The movie would need a huge Friday increase to even come close to the high end of the range.

     

    Im gonna say 19.5 mil for now.

    Deadline’s holdover numbers are generally pretty worthless unless they give a Friday number.  They are awful with early extrapolations.  

    • Like 5

  12. 17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

    Has there really been backlash when Aladdin is looking to make around a billion and this over a billion less than two months apart from each other though?

    Nope, despite mediocre reviews from critics it’s clear the audience loved Aladdin since it has had fantastic legs.  Remains to be seen on Lion King but it’s opening incredibly well just about everywhere so far.


  13. 4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

    The Lion King (in glorious computer animation) (9 before previews, 10 before release)

    North Shore Cinema 

    Mequon, WI

    7/19/19

     

    6:00 - 116/301 - UltraScreen 

    8:00 - 16/121 - 3D 

    9:00 - 30/301 - UltraScreen 

    11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

    12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

     

     

    683% of Aladdin ($625.25M OW)

    631% of Pokémon Detective Pikachu ($343.77M OW)

    273% of Toy Story 4 ($330.46M OW)

    208% of Incredibles 2 ($375.74M OW)

    186% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($218.04M OW)

     

    I am going to be real with y’all, I just can’t see this with an OW under $200M OW at this point.

    If the social media reactions and reviews this week are glowing it really feels like this is going to explode (and I doubt Disney would be dropping the embargo this week if they weren't incredibly confident).

    • Like 1

  14. 4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

    Anecdotally, check out AEG showtimes at Empire 25 in NYC today;
    https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/avengers-endgame-45840/2019-07-02/amc-empire-25/all
    The first 3 shows are near sellouts, and the 4pm and 7:15pm are hours from even starting. 

    It appears that Spidey opening hasn't hampered it's legs at all. 

     

    It this plays out nationally on the domestic front, we could see some decent holds right up until July 11th. 
    Couple that with the staggered OS re-release (Indonesia and Brazil now confirmed, which were huge markets for AEG) and there are definitely many paths to the record. 

     

    It's not certain, nothing ever is in life. 

    But things are certainly looking better than some of those articles will have you believe. Also, it looks like the articles don't take into account that this past weekend was severely underestimated WW. When you are talking about such a small number needed to surpass the record, things like that matter. 

    The other obvious factor is that it is pretty clear that the re-release is going to at worst get AEG within $10 million of the record and there is just no way any studio is going to let a movie fall that short of a record like this. 

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.