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Heretic

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    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    UK had much higher inflation than Italy. Am not really focussing on gross, even local currency but admits.

    That said, I was expecting 30%+ drop in France, Germany, Italy and Spain for full run as most films have not come closer to Avatar performance.

     

    UK on other hand we had TFA beating A1, probably Skyfall and Spectre as well, NWH and EG getting close to it. So was expecting a smaller drop in UK to be around 10M admits vs 11.5M of first one. That's why was thinking of 1.5M+ weekend admits.

    but guess UK will also be dropping 30%+ 

    I just think the market has changed a lot since 2009. TFA was a freak performance which won’t be repeated any time soon if ever, and Bond has been a monster in the UK ever since Skyfall. Endgame’s success obviously speaks for itself as does NWH with the return of Maguire and Garfield. 
     

    Avatar 2 on the other hand is different. Avatar was groundbreaking at the time and a must see event even for non-cinema goers. This is not the case for Avatar 2, and the interest among more general audiences is no where near the level of its predecessor. Avatar also doesn’t have the lasting legacy or cultural impact in the UK like other films mentioned. When you take all these considerations into account I don’t think the fall is that shocking, albeit maybe disappointing. 

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

     

     

    Am I right in recalling though that in $ Avatar came out at a time of a ridiculous $/£ exchange rate?

     

    I mean the difference between the mid 2000s and now is enormous. Surely theres's no way a movie now can make in $ conversion what it would have done in 2004-2010.

     

    I may be completely wrong.

     

    Only massive films like Top Gun Maverick have a chance at topping $100m in the UK these days due to the weak pound.

     

    Back in 2007 Order of the Phoenix broke the $100m mark and it didn’t even top £50m. If exchanges were that strong now, the UK would have multiple $150m+ films and some even over $200m

    • Like 1

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

    Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive.

    This is also a good point and shows that there are many considerations to be taken into account, including the post covid impact on cinema going , and market shift to streaming which was almost non existent in Avatar’s time.

     

    Even in the UK this is relevant. Although we have seen some huge grosses post-covid here, it is mostly reserved for massive fan driven films like NWH, nostalgia driven films like Top Gun, and Bond which is a national treasure here. More ‘ standard’ films I think are increasingly struggling to make their mark.

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Heretic

    8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M.

     

    Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. 

     

    So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved.

    What would be interesting is to see what drops will be in local currency for end gross for all markets, as that removes currency complications also for comparison purposes.

     

    UK I think is looking at ~40% drop from Avatar in pounds, but potentially 55%+ in $. But we’ll have to wait and see how strong legs are. Could even be higher.

     

     

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here.

    • Like 3

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    Just 1-1.1M admits. Awful weekend. Hopefully can gets some super legs to a face saving 6-7M final number.

    In comparison other Big 5

    France - 1.7M 5-days, real value without France in WC final and semis around 2M
    Germany - 1.35M 5-days, 1.18M 4-days weekend

    Italy - 1.14M 5-days, 970K 4-days weekend
    Spain - 0.97M 3 days

    Generally UK would be double of Italy and 40-50% higher than France. Comparable UK performance would be around 2M weekend admits.

    So you think this was going to open with £22m+?  🤣

     

    Under no circumstances would that ever have happened, and only a few films (Avengers, Potter, SW, Bond) have ever had a £20m 3 day opening. Avatar does not have anywhere near the same fan rush.

     

    While this opening is unspectacular and probably a little underwhelming, it is not awful.

    • Like 2

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Heretic

    Just came out of the 7pm IMAX show in Cineworld Leicester Square which was ofcourse sold out. There was another showing at 11:10pm which judging by how busy the lobby area was, was quite a full show also. People would be getting out of that at gone 2am

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    come on. don't "people" me. 

    I gave my reason tbf. 300K OD simply don't cut. UK should be 40-50% higher than France, France FRI is 340K (3rd day). UK should have been 500K+ atleast.

     

    UK tends to be more similar to Canada. CAN OD is more like $45M equivalent than $36M what we have.

    Let’s see how Saturday behaves. If it has a weak jump then we probably have a bigger issue. But my point stands that this was never going to be a mega opener partly due to the length, time of year, and demand for IMAX/PLF over standard formats.

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