cory
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Posts posted by cory
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There's not a strong trend between IM and DOM multi. It's there, but not enough to predict Venom within smaller than a $50M range ($195M-$245M) from that factor alone.
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I could see a 90M 5-day (17/20/20/12/25), but anything over 60 will be great with the budget and holiday legs.
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Reminds me of the first Mission: Impossible more than anything. Not sure why.
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25 minutes ago, The Shrike said:
More ammunition for you:
Episode IV = $460,998,007
Episode V = $290,475,067
So, Empire Strikes Back made 63.01% of A New Hope's domestic gross.
Episode VII = $936,662,225 x 63.01% = $590,190,860
If Episode VIII surpasses that number, and that films detractors say the drop from Episode VII was due to how terrible a film it is, does that mean Empire Strikes Back was terrible too?
Well the original grosses were 307 and 209 for a 68.07% retention. Which is exactly where TLJ will end up.
If you really want to get detailed Star Wars made about 220 before its first official reissue/reexpansion and ESB made about 181. Both around 14 months of release. That puts initial retention at about 82%.
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Sony getting their biggest non-Spidey hit in 2 decades from something that just kind of happened without any real zeitgeist pull is a very strange way to end the year.
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Jumanji had the highest gross for a second place movie on Christmas since AVATAR. You know what that means...
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5 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said:
lets play
34-36 then?
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Just now, CoolEric258 said:
Well, in that case, I'll be 26. That's an even scarier thought.
26 is a great age. Not old at all. Very cool age!
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10 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:
Wait is there a real chance this falls behind Jurassic World lol wtf
I have it being at around 535-540 on New Years Day vs 507 for JW at the same point in its run. Of course JW was headed into 4th of July and deep summer weekdays while TLJ will be heading into regular January weekdays. I don’t see $150M left in the tank from Jan 2 on like JW had, but it should pass $650M with ease.
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1 minute ago, ReyReyBattery said:
Unless the Avatar sequels pull some crazy James Cameron bullshit and nullify all the comps.
Well 2020 is the next Super Christmas, so the drops should play similarly to TFA's day business
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Wow, that’s a hell of a Friday. #2 Dom unadjusted looks in reach now.
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4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
That is you.
You're being unreasonable, crying trolls despite the clear mixed reaction. You don't even have to look across the internet to see that. People on this site are completely mixed, I've been in the spoilers thread and I can tell the reaction is not positive.
Read some of the reviews. I don't think "trolls" who manipulate polls would come up with so many reasons they didn't like the film.
http://www.metacritic.com/movie/star-wars-episode-viii---the-last-jedi?ref=hp
I’m actually agreeing with a lot of the points in these reviews but their score numbers are bitter and petty. It definitely can’t all be trolls.
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I could see how general audiences might not connect with this as well as critics but those scores are probably trolls.
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Whole lot of bracketed numbers on the sheets at WB on Monday. Damn.
Haven't seen it yet but I'm shocked that the Wondy bump didn't keep the OW on par with BVS.
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Another sub-40% weekend drop for WW, and against its first direct competition no less.
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3 minutes ago, baumer said:
Why would you use an adjusted list?
Mainly for Iron Man and Guardians
3.5x obviously there's no need.
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Friday openers over $100m (adj) with 3x legs since 2000:
Wonder Woman (Summer)
Rogue One (Holiday)
Finding Dory (S)
The Secret Life of Pets (S)
The Jungle Book
The Force Awakens (H)
Jurassic World (S)Guardians of the Galaxy (S)
The Avengers
Toy Story 3 (S)
The Dark Knight (S)
Iron Man
Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (S)The Incredibles
Finding Nemo (S)
Spider-ManHarry Potter 1 (H)
Rush Hour 2 (S)
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Up 1.3m from estimates?
Holy smokes Batman
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13 minutes ago, Barnack said:
Was it not by 2 not so long ago ? (and just 10 year's ago, doubling was the success bar not the profit start bar).
Big production budget movie usually can even make profit before doubling (production budget + participation bonus before profit) depending if they are domestic heavy enough.
If the 125 million budget is true, that the same budget than Matt Damon Elysium, and that made a 20 million profit with a 286 million box office performance.
Elysium was far less reliant on China.
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4 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:
Sounds about right. Everyone says multiply production budget by 3 and anything in excess is profit. The Mummy has a production budget of 125, so 370 is better than 375. The Mummy should be profitable.
My formula is production budget plus 10% compared to the estimated rentals broken up by the different rates for domestic/international/China. Approximates for the ratio of home video/television revenue streams and other costs to the theatrical details we get.
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20 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
What the hell? Is deadline saying that Mummy had a budget of 370 million?
They're crazy. I see no reason to explain why are they hitting Mummy so hard like that. Really strange.
Not the production budget. Total bottom line cost.
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4 hours ago, dudalb said:
The Mummy might not even get into profit....it all depends on how much they spent on marketing. The WOM overseas is no better then the WOM domestic, and it going to be a film that opened well overseas but then dropped like a stone. Even if Uni manages to scrap out a modest profit..which is the best they can hope for, it is a very weak foundation for their "Dark Universe".
And people are wildly over predicting the Animated Spidey movie. Spidey is Peter Parker for 90% of the audience out there, and I think they will probably reject any other version.
And Miles Morales was not very successful in the comics;it was widley seen as a cynical stunt to grab the minority audiences.
I have this estimated as losing $30-40m, depending on Cruise's participations (which I'm sure are generous).
It would have to do something like 100 DOM / 160 INTL / 90 CHINA to get out of the red (350 WW).
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Wow WW even exceeded the top end of my prediction. And now it has Fathers Day to soften its week 3 drop.
Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Just realized it’s my Venomversary! I joined BOM for SM3 and now we have an equally memerific Venom movie