cory
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Posts posted by cory
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Yeah I'm feeling around a 52-55M 2nd weekend right now.
Low: 15-20-14 = 49 (-53%)
Older skewing: 16-21-15 = 52 (-49%)
Younger skewing: 16-23-15 = 54 (-47%)
Still thinking 301-304M total. 3.0X is not in play yet.
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Yeah Lionsgate probably netted a decent payday from this because of their financing model and DOM performance, but they would have to put up a much larger % of the budget for a sequel since intl markets didn't respond to PR. If they budgeted it for a 60/35 theatrical maybe it could work.
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13 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:
So, pretty soon, the year's number 2, 3,4 and 5 movies will all be CMB-based.
Superhero fatigue imminent?
Nah, Spider-Man is the only traditional entry, and then it's a 5 month gap until Ragnarok and JL.
We saw Apoc suffer last year because it followed 2 traditional CMBs.
Next year however, will be the true test.
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1 minute ago, Negative Panda Covfefe said:
If you adjust for inflation you can even compare WW to Transformers (which did open on a Wednesday, but it still would have managed well over 3x with a Friday opening)
Theres a few other comps you can compare to as well.
It opened on a Monday and it still did over 3x when you take out its Mon-Thurs gross. Insane.
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4 hours ago, Celedhring said:
Mmmm...coming up with the best multipliers for non-animated films opening over 90m in the summer, I get:
GotG1 : 3.5x (August)
JW: 3.1x
TA: 3x
TDK: 3.3x (9 years ago)
Dead Man's Chest: 3.1x (11 years ago)
Spider-Man: 3.5x (15 years ago).
Crystal Skull: 3.1x (9 years ago).
Iron Man 1: 3.2x (9 years ago)
Matrix Reloaded: 3x (13 years ago)
And that's it. Everything else - and there's a couple dozens films in there - falls below 3x. I think the pattern is clear.
So it seems to me that 3x is the absolute best case scenario for WW, and we should actually be looking at less than that given how few films have managed to get there in recent times, even with good WOM. All in all, I'm not seeing those 300m predictions. Even a WOM wonder like the first Spider-Man film "only" managed 3.5x, 15 years ago.
That said, I hope to be proven wrong. It would be nice to have WW buck that trend and become a rare box office surprise. But BO history is not on her side.
It can hold 7% worse than JW (with similar competition) and still cross $300M. Definitely possible.
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As it stands Iron Man 2 and Guardians 2 are the only MCU sequels which only require watching one previous film.
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2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
MOS OW is really $128m, getting only $163m after that is uhhhhhh bad lol.
Especially with summer weekdays starting to kick in after its first week. I guess the public wasn't ready for a masterpiece.
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Guardians dropped 49% from true-3-day in late summer, should hold a smidge better than that in early summer.
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DC/Marvel true solo debuts
BOM-Adjusted OW (in millions of USD)
Spider-Man 174.7
Deadpool 136.4
Iron Man 121.4
Guardians 103.2
Wonder Woman 100.5
Hulk 91.1
Batman 90.2
X-Men 89.3
Doctor Strange 85.5
Fantastic Four 77.3
Captain America 72.4
Thor 72.1
Watchmen 65.4
Ant-Man 61.3
Daredevil 59.1
Ghost Rider 58.3
Green Lantern 58.3Constantine 41.1
Blade 32.2
Superman 28.2The Punisher 19.7
Supergirl 15.1
Jonah Hex 6.0
Steel 1.7
BOM-Adjusted PTA (in thousands of USD)
Superman 55.5
Spider-Man 48.3
Batman 41.1
Deadpool 38.3
Iron Man 29.6
X-Men 29.5
Guardians 25.3
Hulk 24.9
Wonder Woman 24.1
Doctor Strange 22.0
Fantastic Four 21.5
Captain America 19.5
Thor 18.2
Watchmen 18.1
Ghost Rider 16.1
Ant-Man 15.9
Green Lantern 15.3Blade 13.9
Constantine 13.7
Daredevil 11.6Supergirl 9.4
The Punisher 7.4
Jonah Hex 2.1
Steel 1.3
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1 minute ago, AHepBurn said:
The only DCEU movie that I'm really disappointed with is SS, which really isn't even near the same league as the other three. Which is a shame as I think all the footage we've seen in the movie and in the promotional material is absolutely fantastic. I think an amazing movie was unfortunately left on the cutting room floor.
100% agree. I love the DCEU but SS got butchered.
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I think WB will put the estimates at $101,500,000 to make it look less weird.
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I've seen the following SH movies in theaters:
Batman Forever
X2
Spider-Man 2
Batman Begins
X-Men The Last Stand
Spider-Man 3 (Midnight)
Iron Man
The Incredible Hulk
The Dark Knight
Watchmen
Iron Man 2
X-Men First Class
Captain America
John Carter
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises (Midnight)
The Amazing Spider-Man
Iron Man 3
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Guardians of the Galaxy
Age of Ultron
Civil War
Doctor Strange
Power Rangers
Guardians 2
Wonder Woman
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4 minutes ago, Wonder of Rth said:
very quick stop by
earlier had WW about 38 think still be looking around that
Now I'm going
Thanks darling.
100m still in play
11-27-35-28
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She's only had the 70s show and a 2009 animated movie before this. Everything else was with Justice League.
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1 minute ago, miketheavenger said:
It's not, actually. Catwoman and Elektra happened, as much as we want to forget them. Obviously WW has much more going for it than those films, but it being the first female-led superhero film is factually wrong. It's merely the first well-received female-led superhero movie.
Supergirl 1984 was the first.
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4 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:
And you have yet to explain what that gif actually means.
Jasmine Masters is the Charlie Chaplin of our times.
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Hmm, I was hoping PR would hold a little better. I think the problem is that it's too slow and interpersonal to be a kids movie, but it gets too silly at times to attract a general audience. I'd like to see a sequel, if only to see the characters again.
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3 minutes ago, a2knet said:
And so are it's merchandise profits.
Well yes, SS is definitely the more successful project overall.
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SS's marketing budget and residuals are probably astronomically higher than STB's.
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So yeah, turns out Star Trek was done in by its release date more than anything else.
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Star Trek has been brought back from extinction twice, it's not going anywhere.
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12 minutes ago, Baumer said:
Most think SS is headed for north of 300. I'm skeptical
It would have to land at the low end of tracking for OW and get an atrocious multiplier for a semi-non-sequel to miss 300.
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Will any movie land in the increasingly elusive $200-299 million range this year?
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"Fatigue" isn't the right word, it's more that it's a known quantity at this point. Happened with HP too, it's just settling into a groove.
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Wednesday Numbers : WW : 9.4
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Hopefully it was just because of NBA, but it's only slightly harsher than I anticipated.