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MJL

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    Thursday #'s: JURASSIC WORLD 17.9 (Rth)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    At 18M, a 50% max jump on Friday is a reality.

    I don't think we could put a max on it because of a Thursday number. Now, it's not going to increase like a May or July opener...but the increases from other June openers are in play. From about 40% low end to 90% high. I'm personally thinking it will be between 65-75%

    • Like 1

    Thursday #'s: JURASSIC WORLD 17.9 (Rth)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Middle of July for TDK, not comparable.

    This weekend last year:

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2014-06-20&p=.htm

    Exactly...that's why I sai it would be bad for a TDK type weekend because it's not mid summer and thankfully there should be a mich bigger increase....just like there is no way in hell we are getting Avengers increase (tho I wou love it). I went back to 2012 to get the Prometheus comparison (even tho this should increase better on the weekend because it's more family friendly). It puts it at 112m

    Wednesday Actuals: JW 19.9 [Not the PIXAR thread]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I think everyone is thinking it will drop under 100m this weekend because of how big it opened and thinking it burned off a lot of demand. Well, let me pose this. Does a 55.7% drop on Monday (ok, it could have been spillover), 4% drop Tues and a 19.2% drop Wed show any indication it's been slowing down or that everyone just rushed out to see it on OW (like DH2) and that's that? So far it's been holding really well for June and I don see why it should start holding anything less then great now.

    My prediction

    Thurs - 18.1 (-9.1%)

    Fri - 29.87 (+65%)

    Sat - 40.32 (+35%)

    Sun - 36.29 (-10%)

    Weekend- 106.5m

    • Like 3

    Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Quick points, then back to work.

    Talking about a film deserving or not deserving its gross is silly and it is irrelevant. A movie makes what it makes and our opinion of it is inconsequential. It's the payin customer, collectively that decides what it makes. JW obviously is pleasing people and the word is spreading. So enough of the deserved crap.

    Sure, Avatar is not likely, but impossible? I wouldn't go that far.

    530 mill, so are saying? Why? 2.55X? That seems really low especially when this is about as liked as The Avengers. I don't see how it misses 600.

    Today it could drop by about 25% but I think more likely is 18-21%. MOS fell less than 21%.

    For those who didn't like it, call it sexist, bad characters, unrealistic, or whatever....to paraphrase Matt Damon from the MARTIAN...in your face haters. :)

    As for the prospects of a second weekend 100 mill, it looks like a very real possibility at this point which would put it close to 400 mill.

    Ok, back to work now.

    I couldn't say it much better myself. Will it make it past Avatar? Probably not, but most people didn't see Avatar surpassing Titanic

    • Like 1

    Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    well the prevailing theories the industry believes and to an extent, are correct, is people are doing so much other stuff during the holidays, from traveling, to shopping, to decorating, etc, etc, that less people are spending money or their time on movies.

    now like you and others have said, if you stick a major tentpole and good movie there, all those reasons could be destroyed :P

    this is why so many are interested to see what SW does. Not just the obvious reasons, but to see if it bucks the "December trend"

    I agree to an extent, but there also other factors on why a movie "could" break out. There's vacations in summer that take away from an OW that offset December being a busy time, people are already in malls where movie theaters are located making it easy to combine with their day, and winter is usually horrible outside and outside of holiday stuff...there is much less to do on a day off

    Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    See I don't believe this nonsense that movies cant open high in December. I Am Legend's OW would adjust to about 105m now taking 3d into consideration.

    Avatar had the record for biggest opening of all time in December and it was an original film.

    All this tells me that no movie has opened massive in Decembers because there hasn't been a film worthy of opening massive yet, it hasn't been tested and Star Wars will show the doubters that a massive OW can take place in December, just like Passion proved a film could open big in Feb, THG proved a film can open big in march and Fast and furious in April.

    The general audience don't say to themselves, ah its December, I wont watch this film im eagerly anticipating just yet, ill wait a week or 2. Star wars imo is more likely to break the OW record than open to just 125m.

    I agree. It's like putting the cart before the horse for studios. There are no large OW in December (even tho it's very similar to summer with kids being out of school) because studios generally don't put tentpoles that you must "rush out to see" in December. And the reason they do it is because they haven't seen a movie do it before. It's a vicious cycle. There is NOTHING intrinsically about the month of December that eliminates the possibility of a 150m+ OW. It's just there isn't a movie to rush out during that time. That's why we get long legs and crazy drops. Studios have movies there which aren't "rush out to see known property" but are more "if this is an amazing movie, they'll rush out sometime later"

    • Like 1

    Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    There needs to be a sticky announcement reminding the same group who brings the issue up every summer: U.S. schools do not get out at the same time.

    The last day for NYC schools this year for example is June 26.

    Plus you have some schools that go with m strike and get out later because of it. Tho, as school get out, it slowly puts less emphasis on weekends and more on weekdays. Being in the middle of that switchover "can" soften day to day drops.

    Look at it this way. If it was mid summer...a movie would have 100% of it's demographic to draw upon from one day to the next (discounting people who have work obviously). In very late May to late June....it has an increasing % of it's demographic because of school letting out. Can it be measured and predicted against? No, but that's where wild guesstimations come into play.

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