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MJL

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    BEAUTY AND THE BEAST WEEKEND THREAD | Late Sunday Numbers (Asgard) - 48-49M | Official Weekend Estimate: 170M; OS OW: 180M; WW OW: 350M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I think DHD is being conservative.  Look at what THR reported.  They make it seem like 60M is the minimum it can do.

     

    "Disney's live-action musical Beauty and the Beast is doing monstrous business at the North American box office, where it should waltz past $60 million on Friday alone for a possible opening of $165 million-$170 million, according to early Friday returns."

     

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/weekend-box-office-beauty-beast-roars-163m-thursday-986898

    • Like 1

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Also does anyone forget that Rey was ALREADY skilled at weapons before the events in the FA.  How do we know this?  Look at her first fight with a weapon.  I'm not talking about her fight with Kylo, but how she had that fight when first running into Finn and how he was shocked how she knocked him off his feet so fast and dispatched those two other guys with her staff.  Now think how hard is it to pick up a lightsaber and fight with it if you have previous years of experience with a staff..

    • Like 7

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by MJL
    Look better

    So now the question is which trend will it follow.  

     

    Ep III did 16.5m from previews (which adjusts to 22.2m in 2016) and went on to a 50m OD (67m adj) on a Thursday and FA did 57m from previews and a 120m OD. So, we are looking at a 2.1 - 3.0 multi from previews for a  61m - 87m range.  

     

    Previews have definitely grown since then, but at the same time RO isn't as much of a "Rush out and see this for a first showing" type of movie as FA with the return of the main cast (in my opinion).  I still feel 3x is obviously way too high to expect but feel 2.1x is too low.  

     

    I'm thinking this should get about a 2.3 - 2.5 multi for a 67 - 72m OD (38 - 43m true Friday).

    • Like 2

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by MJL
    Added link

    5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

    And regardless of what adults think, I can tell you for sure that kids will hate this. There is not one thing about it that's for them. So there goes 50% of what makes SW a phenomenon. 

     

    Despite any notoin that Rogue One is a darker film, 90% of all boys under 12 will recommend it to their friends, while 84% of all girls will pass the good word around about Jyn Erso.

     

    http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/

     

    hmmmmm.......

    • Like 8

    ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Here's where I think the great divide between people who love the movie and hate it is:

    Spoiler

    This movie isn't a character piece like all other Star Wars movies which have come before....and rightly it shouldn't be.  If you look at the movie from the perspective that these characters are a representation of the faceless rebellion journeyman (and woman), it makes a lot more sense and it's definitely more enjoyable.  It's more about the process versus the players.  This is why there wasn't more character development.  You give just enough to show the desperation, but not enough to make people question "Why did they just refer to the 'band of Rebels' who stole the Death Star plans versus giving credit to these now important characters".  These characters were MEANT to be thrown away.  They are literally Star Wars version of the unknown soldier 

     

    • Like 2

    Wednesday Numbers, Deadpool $8.62m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I don't think there is any possible way to look at TFA being a bigger surprise over Deadpool.  

     

    Think of it this way....  When TFA was announced, people may not have been predicting smashing the opening weekend record or topping Avatar...but it was a credible possibility.  Once marketing hit, it became clear that it would do amazing numbers at least CLOSE to the record and would challenge at least JW total.

     

    Now Deadpool, on the other hand, doubled most people's predictions they had on the week of release.  When the midnight numbers came out, people still were debating if it would be able to break FSOG's record over the 3 and 4 day.  No one could have even fathomed it would do 152m over the 4 day and there were very few predictions for over a 200m total gross LET ALONE a 300m or chance at a 400m total.

     

     Another way to look at it is tracking.  Here is the tracking for both approximately 3 weeks from release.  Deadpool outdid it's tracking by about 2.5x where TFA would have had to been tracking at about 100m to jump as much from tracking as Deadpool did as shown below:

     

    "Those with access to prerelease services say the scores are strong for Deadpool among both males and females (as of now, it is the first choice among females). One service even has Deadpool crossing $60 million, and that's before Fox makes its major marketing push."

     

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-ryan-reynolds-deadpool-858018

     

    "Star Wars: The Force Awakens registered on distributors’ tracking reports today, four weeks before the film opens. On the low end, some are projecting $185 million, at the high end they’re looking at $210M, and Disney insiders think an opening close to $170M is possible."

     

    http://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/

    • Like 3
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