IndustriousAngel Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 hmmm... H8 is struggling, might drop >50% from Django. I was sure it would come in lower but not by that much?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Sadly, again no Thursday estimates today :(. Would have been interesting. 4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: hmmm... H8 is struggling, might drop >50% from Django. I was sure it would come in lower but not by that much?! That might well be so IMO too (Django Unchained made 9M US$ on its first weekend in Germany without previews). Presales looked so good a week ago but during the week, it slowed down. From reports from the insidekino.de forum and a look at my theaters around 300-400k could happen. I would say 400k from evening presales but the afternoon and late night reservations don't look like 400k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I suppose it might be too dark for the general audience ... german audiences love comedies or at least uplifting stories (otoh Revenant is having a nice success .... who would have thought it might beat H8?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 First weekend trend is online at insidekino.de: #1: H8 - 375k (ugh, drops a lot more from Django than I hoped) #2: B&T3 - 250k (-35%, very good after the strong opening) #3: Rev - 225k (-35%, also ok hold) #4: Alvin - 175k (hard drop from the last one) #5: SW7 - 125k (-40%, crosses 8.5mil total) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Right now I'd say Episode VII finishes with 8.8-8.9 million. We don't have the weekday numbers yet, but its weekends are similar to the same weekends for Spectre, with the difference being that Spectre gets a boost in the following weeks due to the holidays, making that movie not a good comparison anymore. Fack ju Göhte 2 meanwhile managed less than 300k after coming off an 120k weekend (which wasn't the 7th like in this case, but the 8th). With TFA being at 8.55 or so after this weekend, it would need to perform significantly better than that to reach 9 million admissions. Are you sure about 175k being a hard drop for Alvin compared to part 3? The trend says it is up significantly from the last one (140k) and even ahead of the first (169k). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 19 minutes ago, George Parr said: Are you sure about 175k being a hard drop for Alvin compared to part 3? The trend says it is up significantly from the last one (140k) and even ahead of the first (169k). oh, guess I had wrong numbers in my head for that one, thaught the last one did a lot better ... I'm with you concerning SW7, I had hoped for a better drop here but I think there's still a small chance it might reach the mark, if the diehard SW fans keep up the repeat viewings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurent K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k Is CREED KO ? Here in France, it will be in the top 3 in its 3rd week after 2 weeks at the first position. Final : 1,5 M admissions is likely in France. Edited January 30, 2016 by Laurent K 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k That propably means a fourth B&T movie will come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 9 hours ago, Laurent K said: Is CREED KO ? Here in France, it will be in the top 3 in its 3rd week after 2 weeks at the first position. Final : 1,5 M admissions is likely in France. Creed (and Daddy's Home and The Big Short) should have around 40k admissions this weekend (so -43%). Mmh. Ride Along 95k (pretty ok hold), The Danish Girl 27.5k and The Peanuts still 25k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 (edited) with every estimate, B&T3 is going up and H8 down ... now it's supposed to be like: #1: H8 - 340k #2: B&T3 - 325k (-15%, wow just wow) #3: Rev - 240k (-30%, also ok hold) #4: Alvin - 225k (family stuff had an extremely strong Sat it seems) #5: SW7 - 140k (-30%, now that's a fine hold ) with the way the trends develop this weekend, B&T3 might win the weekend. Crazy. Edited January 31, 2016 by IndustriousAngel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 If SW drops only about 31% every week 9M total is still doable... Maybe the "Fasching" holidays (don't know an translation) can help? Insane for B&T3 if you think of the previous parts. This is kind of doubling them. H8... Maybe Revenant was to similar? They seem to have the same target group. But it's a really steep drop, especially in dollars I suspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 20 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: with the way the trends develop this weekend, B&T3 might win the weekend. Crazy. sadly that seems to be the case ... actuals tomorrow but B&T3 stays on top with a fantastic drop of about 12%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bibi & Tina 3 330.840 704 470 840.335 5.357.532 -12 2 2 The Hateful 8 312.673 577 542 351.316 3.609.063 - 1 3 The Revenant 240.248 693 347 1.806.590 17.114.245 -28 4 4 Alvin & Chipmunks 4 232.727 606 384 232.727 1.535.689 - 1 5 Star Wars 7 145.254 548 265 8.582.246 97.446.986 -29 7 6 Ride Along 2 108.040 382 283 287.501 2.386.191 -21 2 7 Ich bin dann mal weg 60.460 617 98 1.581.707 12.376.043 -24 6 8 The 5th Wave 57.333 475 121 314.150 2.549.755 -25 3 9 Daddy's Home 49.423 296 167 152.528 1.182.478 -37 2 10 The Big Short 41.289 280 147 258.081 2.186.415 -26 3 11 Creed 39.338 372 106 305.310 2.762.035 -43 3 12 Hilfe, ich hab meine Lehrerin geschrumpft 37.010 481 77 974.981 6.077.818 -26 7 13 The Peanuts 32.787 528 62 1.126.787 8.515.774 -36 6 14 Kardesim Benin 30.190 61 495 80.256 726.692 -22 2 15 The Danish Girl 28.136 186 151 252.045 2.038.534 -20 4 16 Brooklyn 24.039 104 231 62.719 491.654 -2 2 17 Unfriend 20.202 251 80 242.152 2.057.218 -32 4 18 Heidi 18.696 440 42 1.134.950 7.294.931 -38 8 19 Point Break 17.169 383 45 84.048 788.358 -58 2 20 Dedemin Fisi 16.671 48 347 16.671 152.351 - 1 Two wide openers - Alvin with a very good start, H8 with a dreadfully steep drop from Django. Even worse for H8: It was overall a good weekend as witnessed by some excellent holds (apart from Creed which gets knocked around and PointBreak which seems in complete freefall). The most unbelievable hold is the one from leader B&T3 - this release is upping future tresholds not only for the franchise but for the whole genre (domestic kid's literary adaptions). And finally a nice hold for SW7 - yeah, that's the way to 9mil! Go Baby … Next weekend: With school holidays in many regions, some more family releases (CGIed "Robinson Crusoe", "Goosebumps"), some arthouse stuff, and Til Schweiger's "Tschiller: Off Duty" tries to translate his TV success to the big screen. I'd say Tschiller wins the weekend, but not by much … all those family releases are bound to cannibalise each other to some extent. H8 - difficult to predict; usually Tarantino flicks have good multipliers but the way H8 has developed over the weekend makes me doubt the potential … it would need a, say, 25% drop or better not to be called a disappointment, and I just don't see that - but let's keep the fingers crossed; strong weekdays might also help. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I don't know if only -25% are doable for H8 (it will be close I guess) but from a look at my usual theaters I'm surprised how terrible the presales look so far for Tschiller (despite the many trailers I had to see in the theater over the last weeks) and Goosebumps (yes, too many family films to choose). The numbers for The Forest look ok (best newcomer?) but overall H8 and The Revenant have nothing to fear from the new releases. The Revenant should again hold very well (what's going on with this movie - I mean I liked it myself and I thought it will be a success in Germany but with maximum 1.5M admissions and not higher. But It's a nice surprise ;) ). H8 has not great but good reservation numbers – it could manage the only -25% I think. The race for #1 will indeed be closer than I thought and if Tschiller:Off Duty doesn't improve much tomorrow it won't even be under the Top 3. Hopefully tomorrow we will get Thursday numbers ;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 presales for Tschiller look bad inded ... strange that Schweiger's blockbusters have not raised interest in his action stuff at least a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 (edited) I'm surprised too. And there were so many and long trailers in front of every movie I saw in December and January. I read that Tschiller had a lot of previews which could have had up to 100k admissions but for the „rest“ of the weekend it's really surprising how bad it looks for this movie. First I thought that this is pretty comprehensible because it will be on TV soon but as I read it will not be shown before 2017 or 2018 in Germany. But at least it will be not a too boring weekend and the race for #1 will become interesting :). Edited February 3, 2016 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Thursday evening looks not much better for "Tschiller" ... I was hoping for an opening >300k but it won't even reach 200 with those numbers. btw, just saw "Wie Brüder im Wind" - highly recommended if you like nature docs; the "plot" is fairly forced and completely unnecessary (despite veteran actors like Reno and Moretti) but the eagle scenes are breathtaking and some are very intense - watch for the scene where the young eagle tries his talons on a prey two numbers too big for him - unbelievable. Same goes for the winter sequences. 7/10 as a whole but the cinematography gets at least 9/10! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum): Newbies: Tschiller: Off Duty: 12k (200k look really out of reach) Goosebumps: 2.5k (evening only, will improve a lot over the off school week(end)) The Forest: 5.5k (lower than I thought) Suffragette: 3k Holdovers: The Hateful Eight: 43.5k The Revenant: 21k Star Wars: 8k Ride Along 2: 2.5k This Thursday the carnival week started here in Germany and Austria and some people have holidays (but by far not all) so movies could benefit. But OTOH until/including Wednesday there will be a lot of Faschingsparties and that is not helpful. Overall it will help the theaters I guess because as IndustriesAngel said schools are closed in most of the states. I hope it doesn't bother if I post these Thursday estimates from time to time. I mean I wait for them every Thursday evening with exitement so I can also report them here ;). And again: These Thursday numbers are only first little indicators and can only show if a movie could surprise or is a complete flop, this is no first trend as reported on Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 well, at least for grown-up stuff, those Thursday estimates are usually a very good indicator so keep them coming (and going by those, Tschiller wil peter out at 100k ... myohmy ... at least H8 seems to have found some footing, to look at some silver lining) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...