Taruseth Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 (edited) Men in Black International: (T-2) for Previews: Screwed because today was a public holiday, so the weekend shows aren’t on sale yet. 44 / 2747 -> 1.57% (this has a lot of room, Aladdin had 1650 seats up for sale) Comps.: Previews: Aladdin: 227 => 60k OWend incl. Previews John Wick 3: 412 => 35k OWend incl. Previews Godzilla: 146 => 48k OWend incl. Previews Rocketman: 112 => 56k OWend incl. Previews Dark Phoenix: 59 => 99k OWend incl. Previews Well they all look awful, so this obviously won’t have great previews but maybe it will have a nice weekend. The comps point towards something between 50 and 60k apart from Dark Phoenix which points towards 100k. If factoring in that today was a public holiday so most people probably didn’t think about what they might watch in the cinema, I guess the comps from yesterday are still okay. Regarding the holiday today: I think most movies had somewhat good numbers today, don't want to bring the hopes up but I'd say today was especially nice to Aladdin, but that isn't anything fixed just from some short looks through some showings today. I think it passed 1m adm. today (after the weekend it needed about 35k more). Edited June 10, 2019 by Taruseth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 19 hours ago, Taruseth said: [...] Regarding the holiday today: I think most movies had somewhat good numbers today, don't want to bring the hopes up but I'd say today was especially nice to Aladdin, but that isn't anything fixed just from some short looks through some showings today. I think it passed 1m adm. today (after the weekend it needed about 35k more). 1 Yesterday was even better than I thought with 70-75k for Aladdin. I didn't want to go higher than saying it passed 1m because I kinda had my doubts about Monday being higher than all days of the weekend. Thought it might come in under Sunday. Edited June 11, 2019 by Taruseth 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 MIBI looking to 50K to 60K OW include previews ... hmmm would be a decent start .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: MIBI looking to 50K to 60K OW include previews ... hmmm would be a decent start .. From where are you getting that information? That would be an awful start. Also, I think there is a chance for Aladdin to stay #1 for a 4th weekend, I guess it could do something around 100-120k and I see a chance for MIB to open to around 90k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Taruseth said: From where are you getting that information? That would be an awful start. Also, I think there is a chance for Aladdin to stay #1 for a 4th weekend, I guess it could do something around 100-120k and I see a chance for MIB to open to around 90k. someone on twitter posted it .... so its wrong information .. thnxx for the telling me .. 90K start for MIBI ... this is still an awful numbers ... Edited June 11, 2019 by Sunny Max Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Taruseth said: From where are you getting that information? That would be an awful start. Also, I think there is a chance for Aladdin to stay #1 for a 4th weekend, I guess it could do something around 100-120k and I see a chance for MIB to open to around 90k. At least it looks like that right now, it, of course, could be a really walk-up driven movie and theoretically, everything is possible, also today was the first day of presales so I first will let that play out til midnight and then do a count and hopefully will have a more detailed idea for where it's heading, that would be in roughly five to six hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) Way too early to panic when it comes to MiBI . As often, first of all I checked the prediction for the weekend weather. Ok, three days are said to become sunny (after an at least here in Bavaria very grey and cold May) which is not good for the film. And the reservations not only in the theaters of Taruseth are indeed a bit worrisome; in mine it doesn't look very good either so far. But OTOH I saw already several TV-spots for it so the marketing campaign seems to be alive here. And the first three films of the series had - averaged - nearly 5M(!) admissions here and Mark_G from insidekino.de is more pessimistic this time but he still predicts a total result of 1M admissions. Means, normally the OW admissions would be around 300k but the sunny weather will definitely hurt it. Still, everything below 150k-200k admissions would be a very negative surprise. June the 20th is a legal holiday in several big states plus we have school holidays in some states too...So despite the too good OW weather it has good chances (if the movie is not totally bad of course). Edited June 11, 2019 by el sid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, el sid said: Way too early to panic when it comes to MiBI . As often, first of all I checked the prediction for the weekend weather. Ok, three days are said to become sunny (after an at least here in Bavaria very grey and cold May) which is not good for the film. And the reservations not only in the theaters of Taruseth are indeed a bit worrisome; in mine it doesn't look very good either so far. But OTOH I saw already several TV-spots for it so the marketing campaign seems to be alive here. And the first three films of the series had - averaged - nearly 5M(!) admissions here and Mark_G from insidekino.de is more pessimistic this time but he still predicts a total result of 1M admissions. Means, normally the OW admissions would be around 300k but the sunny weather will definitely hurt it. Still, everything below 150k-200k admissions would be a very negative surprise. June the 20th is a legal holiday in several big states plus we have school holidays in some states too...So despite the too good OW weather it has good chances (if the movie is not totally bad of course). I know, I said that I could give a first count when the first day of presales is actually over, hope that the evening was nice. Before that, I only can give a rough guess based on Previews and that normally isn't really the best thing to do, maybe this is just not a preview movie. Yeah, sunny weather which lowers walk-ups. Especially Friday looks hot weather-wise for the whole of Germany. The fact that the previous ones were successful means not much, this isn't a Will Smith movie and the average means nothing, MIB 3 had 2.26m adm., that's where I would look. But if we take the 5m even a 300k OWend would be an absolute disaster. Of course, a holiday in southern Germany; needed to look up for what🤣 but that would be during the 2nd weekend. And yesterday skewed low because of the holiday, I know that; none the less, I am definitely not on board for 1m. Might get to around 700-800k but don't see it going further unless it miraculously will explode over the next few days or it actually turns out to be a great movie and will have awesome legs. Edited June 11, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Men In Black International: Spoiler Tuesday 11thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Bremen Wednesday – Preview: 2D 20:00: 17 / 425 -> 4% (+0) Thursday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 572 3D 19:50: 10 / 572 3D 22:45: 0 / 572 2D 14:00: 0 / 572 Total: 10 / 2288 -> 0.44% Friday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 572 3D 19:50: 10 / 572 3D 22:45: 0 / 572 2D 14:00: 0 / 572 Total: 10 / 2288 -> 0.44% Saturday: 3D 17:00: 2 / 572 3D 19:50: 9 / 572 3D 22:45: 0 / 425 2D 14:00: 0 / 572 Total: 11 / 2288 -> 0.48% Sunday: OV 3D 19:50: 0 / 156 3D 11:15: 0 / 572 3D 17:00: 2 / 572 3D 19:50: 2 / 572 2D 14:45: 0 / 572 Total: 4 / 2444 -> 0.16% Total without Preview: 35 / 9308 -> 0.38% Total with Preview: 52 / 9733 -> 0.53% Tuesday 11thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday – Preview: 2D OV 19:50: 15 / 288 2D OV 23:00: 0 / 280 3D 19:30: 12 / 260 3D 23:10: 0 / 228 Total: 27 / 1056 -> 2.56% (+14) Thursday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 505 3D 20:30: 0 / 454 3D 23:20: 0 / 348 2D 14:15: 2 / 505 OV 2D 20:00: 1 / 280 Total: 3 / 2092 -> 0.14% Friday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 505 3D 20:30: 0 / 454 3D 23:20: 0 / 348 OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 288 2D 14:15: 0 / 505 OV 2D 20:00: 0 / 280 Total: 0 / 2380 -> 0% Saturday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 505 3D 20:30: 7 / 454 3D 23:20: 0 / 348 OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 0 / 505 OV 2D 20:00: 0 / 280 Total: 7 / 2380 -> 0.29% Sunday: 3D 17:00: 0 / 505 3D 20:30: 0 / 454 3D 23:20: 0 / 348 OV 3D 19:30: 0 / 260 OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 288 2D 14:00: 0 / 505 Total: 0 / 2360 -> 0% Total without Preview: 10 / 9212 -> 0.1% Total with Preview: 37 / 10268 -> 0.36% Tuesday 11th June 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-1) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt Wednesday – Previews: 3D OV 20:15: 23 / 642 3D 20:00: 18 / 642 Total: 41 / 1266 -> 3.2% (+23) Thursday: OV 3D 17:40: 2 / 624 OV 3D 20:30: 9 / 624 OV 3D 23:20: 0 / 624 3D 17:10: 2 / 642 3D 20:00: 6 / 642 3D 22:50: 2 / 642 OV 2D 14:50: 0 / 624 2D 14:20: 0 / 642 Total: 21 / 5064 -> 0.41% Friday: OV 3D 17:40: 0 / 624 OV 3D 20:30: 9 / 624 OV 3D 23:20: 0 / 624 3D 17:10: 0 / 642 3D 20:00: 0 / 642 3D 22:50: 0 / 642 OV 2D 14:50: 0 / 624 2D 14:20: 0 / 642 Total: 9 / 5064 -> 0.18% Saturday: OV 3D 17:40: 4 / 624 OV 3D 20:30: 2 / 624 OV 3D 23:20: 0 / 624 3D 17:10: 2 / 642 3D 20:00: 0 / 642 3D 22:50: 0 / 642 OV 2D 14:50: 9 / 624 2D 11:30: 0 / 642 2D 14:20: 0 / 642 Total: 17 / 5706 -> 0.3% Sunday: OV 3D 17:40: 4 / 624 OV 3D 20:30: 0 / 624 OV 3D 23:20: 0 / 624 3D 17:10: 0 / 642 3D 20:00: 0 / 642 3D 22:50: 0 / 642 OV 2D 14:00: 0 / 346 2D 11:30: 0 / 642 2D 14:20: 0 / 642 Total: 4 / 5410-> 0.7‰ Total without Previews: 51 / 21244 -> 0.24% Total with Previews: 92 / 22510 -> 0.41% 1 day out: Previews: 17 + 27+ 41 = 85 Thursday: 10 + 3 + 21 = 34 Friday: 10 + 0 + 9 = 19 Saturday: 11 + 7 + 17 = 35 Sunday: 4 + 0 + 4 = 8 Total wo Previews: 35 + 10 + 51 = 96 Total w Previews: 52 + 37 + 92 = 181 Comps for this: Previews: Aladdin: 276 => 96k OWend incl. Previews John Wick 3: 510 => 55k OWend incl. Previews Godzilla: 187 => 73k OWend incl. Previews Rocketman: 128 => 94k OWend incl. Previews Dark Phoenix: 75 => 150k OWend incl. Previews Wend: Aladdin: 235 => 118k + 15k = 133k John Wick 3: 414 => 66k + 10k = 76k Godzilla: 232 => 58k +5k = 63k Rocketman: 118 => 97k + 13k = 110k Dark Phoenix: 191 => 60k +10k = 70k This looks like a mess, but I’d say that Aladdin Wend might be the best comp as that opened presales on Tuesday too and that would point towards a 120k +15k = 135k OWend, which would be way better than Preview numbers apart from Dark Phoenix suggested but still an awful opening for a Men In Black movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 12, 2019 Author Share Posted June 12, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Aladdin 192.023 701 274 969.201 9.086.471 -34 3 2 John Wick 3 124.171 601 207 804.295 7.504.285 -32 3 3 X-Men - Dark Phoenix 124.033 585 212 133.310 1.430.775 - 1 4 Rocketman 85.399 530 161 262.567 2.434.187 -28 2 5 Godzilla 2 74.275 461 161 264.799 2.806.873 -47 2 6 Pokémon Detektive Pikachu 51.978 628 83 1.203.651 10.375.610 -58 5 7 Avengers - Endgame 43.091 369 117 4.938.815 55.668.363 -46 7 8 Ma 40.750 299 136 102.790 894.327 -20 2 9 TKKG 30.219 460 66 36.564 247.840 - 1 10 The Hustle 29.740 346 86 584.005 4.815.703 -36 5 11 Der Fall Collini 16.780 322 52 704.291 6.156.785 -7 8 12 Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu ? 10.537 251 42 1.227.035 10.036.715 -30 10 13 The Queen's Corgi 8.598 394 22 214.633 1.451.673 -54 6 14 Buh-Ning 8.317 56 149 9.063 79.518 - 1 15 Doubles Vies 7.173 78 92 7.832 64.236 - 1 16 The Silence 5.250 61 86 46.148 342.412 +41 4 17 Edie 4.956 127 39 40.120 302.628 -32 3 18 Wonder Park 4.799 261 18 489.044 3.410.090 -57 9 19 Missing Link 4.736 362 13 22.268 148.372 -65 2 20 Nur eine Frau 4.580 116 39 54.651 441.611 -4 5 Sad weekend with disappointing numbers across the board … Dark Phoenix will probably not reach 500k total. Next weekend: The new Men in Black movie should win the weekend, the franchise is probably long past ist prime but there should be enough goodwill to carry it to, say, a 300k opening weekend (even if presales point more to 150k I hope for strong walk-ins). Among other openers, Jarmusch's latest should have a fine PTA. For holdovers, weather conditions should be so-so, rainy in some parts and sunny in others - at least not worse than last weekend. 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1.5 M admissions for Aladdin is possible i think ... KOTM max 400K admissions ... very poor .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Men in Black International: 0 days out: Thursday: 29 + 15 + 46 = 90 Friday: 9 + 7 + 30 = 46 Saturday: 17 + 11 + 44 = 72 Sunday: 4 + 0 + 9 = 13 Total wo Previews: 59 + 33 + 129 = 221 (+125) Comps for this: Wend: Aladdin: 493 => 125 + 15k = 140k (increase of 7k + 0k = 7k) John Wick 3: 967 => 65k + 10k = 75k (drop of 1k + 0k = 1k) Godzilla: 328 => 98 k + 10k = 108k (increase of 40k + 5k = 45k) Rocketman: 175 => 159k + 20k = 179k (increase of 62k + 7k = 69k) Dark Phoenix: 333 => 81k +7.5k = 88.5k Mmh, I guess DP and John Wick were to presale heavy and Godzilla might have been too, that would leave Aladdin and Rocketman which it probably will end around. Especially the Rocketman comp is promising as if it increases continue to relatively stay as much greater as the ones for Rocketman were it could open to more than 200k. But right now I’d take the middle path between both for something like 135k + 20k for a 155 total opening. (Won't post the detailed breakdown, in the list at the top the order is Cinestar Bremen, CinemaxX Bremen and Metropolis Frankfurt). 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Men in Black International: 0 days out: Thursday: 29 + 15 + 46 = 90 Friday: 9 + 7 + 30 = 46 Saturday: 17 + 11 + 44 = 72 Sunday: 4 + 0 + 9 = 13 Total wo Previews: 59 + 33 + 129 = 221 (+125) Comps for this: Wend: Aladdin: 493 => 125 + 15k = 140k (increase of 7k + 0k = 7k) John Wick 3: 967 => 65k + 10k = 75k (drop of 1k + 0k = 1k) Godzilla: 328 => 98 k + 10k = 108k (increase of 40k + 5k = 45k) Rocketman: 175 => 159k + 20k = 179k (increase of 62k + 7k = 69k) Dark Phoenix: 333 => 81k +7.5k = 88.5k Mmh, I guess DP and John Wick were to presale heavy and Godzilla might have been too, that would leave Aladdin and Rocketman which it probably will end around. Especially the Rocketman comp is promising as if it increases continue to relatively stay as much greater as the ones for Rocketman were it could open to more than 200k. But right now I’d take the middle path between both for something like 135k + 20k for a 155 total opening. (Won't post the detailed breakdown, in the list at the top the order is Cinestar Bremen, CinemaxX Bremen and Metropolis Frankfurt). Good for MIB ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 MiB look HORRIBLE at my theater ... biggest screen and only 20 tickets sold - hope it does better elsewhere 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Hmmm low buzz & poor marketing .. looks like another flop incoming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 22 hours ago, Taruseth said: Men in Black International: 0 days out: Thursday: 29 + 15 + 46 = 90 Friday: 9 + 7 + 30 = 46 Saturday: 17 + 11 + 44 = 72 Sunday: 4 + 0 + 9 = 13 Total wo Previews: 59 + 33 + 129 = 221 (+125) Comps for this: Wend: Aladdin: 493 => 125 + 15k = 140k (increase of 7k + 0k = 7k) John Wick 3: 967 => 65k + 10k = 75k (drop of 1k + 0k = 1k) Godzilla: 328 => 98 k + 10k = 108k (increase of 40k + 5k = 45k) Rocketman: 175 => 159k + 20k = 179k (increase of 62k + 7k = 69k) Dark Phoenix: 333 => 81k +7.5k = 88.5k Mmh, I guess DP and John Wick were to presale heavy and Godzilla might have been too, that would leave Aladdin and Rocketman which it probably will end around. Especially the Rocketman comp is promising as if it increases continue to relatively stay as much greater as the ones for Rocketman were it could open to more than 200k. But right now I’d take the middle path between both for something like 135k + 20k for a 155 total opening. (Won't post the detailed breakdown, in the list at the top the order is Cinestar Bremen, CinemaxX Bremen and Metropolis Frankfurt). Right now I'd say it might come in around Dark Phoenix / Aladdin comp. So something around 125k weekend, the real number will partly be determined by the weather, if Sunday and Saturday are amazing all around it might go lower, if they are rainier it might be able to climb to the prediction from yesterday. Sorry, don't see anything above and the estimates for Thursday are as follows: MIBI: 23k Dark P.: 11k Rocketman: 8k GKotM: 6k Aladdin: 13k (in the evening) JW 3: 13k source: insidekino.de last Thursday actuals: On 6/7/2019 at 9:52 AM, Taruseth said: [...] Aladdin 25k (€215k ≈ $242.5k) (Drop compared to OD 16.7%) Dark Phoenix 20k (€200k ≈ $226k) John Wick 3: 18.5k (€165k ≈ $186.5k) Rocketman: 13k (€115k ≈ $130k) GKotM: 9.5k (€95k ≈ $107.5k) [...] Slightly above DP but I am not certain that actuals will stay above it and while I think it should match the multi of DP I am not certain that it will be able to have a better one. If the Godzilla drop is true that would be great but I don't think it will be able to have the same drop when we are looking at the whole weekend. DP drop is not great but it's okay overall. If Aladdin has gotten around 15k overall, the drop would be rather harsh and probably mean that MIBI wins the weekend if MIBI comes in lower and Aladdin comes in higher (and had good midday shows) it might still have a shot at #1 though I'd say that right now is really slim. Honestly would find it funny if Aladdin did that, everyone doubted that movie and then it being #1 for four weekends would be pretty great (I know that it barely won the first one and only if we are looking at the true weekend). So right now I'd say MIBI is heading for a 125k + 15k ≈ 140k and Aladdin is headed for a 105k. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 (edited) @Taruseth You doing great job well but can you also provide totals and lighten the math little bit so layman folks can understand whats going on. Sometimes the math seems to get to heavy and I am not sure if the peasants will understand. It may become a mountain to much for them to climb Edited June 13, 2019 by Geo1500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Aladdin: 13k (in the evening) last Thursday actuals: On 6/7/2019 at 9:52 AM, Taruseth said: [...] Aladdin 25k (€215k ≈ $242.5k) (Drop compared to OD 16.7%) [...] If Aladdin has gotten around 15k overall, the drop would be rather harsh and probably mean that MIBI wins the weekend if MIBI comes in lower and Aladdin comes in higher (and had good midday shows) it might still have a shot at #1 though I'd say that right now is really slim. So right now I'd say MIBI is heading for a 125k + 15k ≈ 140k and Aladdin is headed for a 105k. Aladdin had 15k evening only last week and 25k whole day. So 13k would be pretty good, a drop below 20k again. Hopefully the actuals will confirm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 14, 2019 Author Share Posted June 14, 2019 horrible first estimates from insidekino.de: #1: Aladdin - 105k #2: MiB - slightly below that number #3: JW3 - 60k and there I was thinking that 150k was a sensible prediction ... that's practically a flop. 4 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 9 hours ago, Aristis said: Aladdin had 15k evening only last week and 25k whole day. So 13k would be pretty good, a drop below 20k again. Hopefully the actuals will confirm... Looks like this week evening made up for a greater share: Thursday actuals: Aladdin: 18K (€160k ≈ $205k) MIBI: 16k (€154k ≈ $197k) JW 3: 10k (€94k ≈ $106k) DP: 9k (€80k ≈ $90k) Rocketman: 9k (€80k ≈ $90k) I don't know why I went up with MIBI so much despite most pointing somewhere else, honestly couldn't believe that this might open so low - 102.5k with Previews means less than 100k without previews. That would be a worse opening than for any other big movie in the last month or more. Also, this weekend overall looks abysmal as a movie that opened with less than 300k manages to stay #1 for a fourth weekend. Hope the multi for Aladdin will be higher than 5.83 (last weekend it was a 7.6) but this weekend Thursday had some help from Pentecost in southern Germany and that will mean a lower multi as I only really started this year I can't explain how exactly that will influence it but considering about 30% live in the two states that have Pentecost holiday this week I guess it will definitely hurt the multi. Totals for the movies after this weekend: Aladdin: 1225k (4th weekend) MIBI: 102.5k (OWend) JW3: 915k (4th weekend) DP: 1275k (2nd weekend) Rocketman: 365k (3rd weekend) Endgame: 4975k (8th weekend) Possible final totals: Aladdin: 1500k MIBI: 350k JW3: 1050k DP: 1325k Rocketman: 500k Endgame: 5020k 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...