mexico Mexico Box Office | Inside Out 2 close to $72M; will Day One create much noise?

[Carlangonz]

Everything remains going strong: Mermaid aims to finish in the higher range of last week's forecast with o/u $370M. Same with Fast X with o/u $700M and Guardians within the initial floor of $650M.

[Carlangonz]

On 5/31/2023 at 6:21 PM, Carlangonz said:

TRANSFORMERS: THE RISE OF BEASTS PREVIEWS - T-7 DAYS

 

857/5407 (15.85% occupancy)

 

x0.15 of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-6 Hours)

x0.21 of Fast X (T-7 Days)

TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS

 

1,293/5,407 (+50.88% from T-7 - 23.91% occupancy)

 

x0.22 of Guardians of the Galaxy (T-6 Hours) - $5.24M

x0.19 of Fast X (T-2 Days) - $7.36M

 

Considering this should have better walk-ups then figure should be a bit higher than both comps. With no premium formats and largest screens it should have a better internal multi as well going over $100M+ opening weekend.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 6/1/2023 at 1:42 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - FIRST 12 HOURS OF SALES (T-13 DAYS)

 

634/10,065 

 

x0.77 of Fast X Previews - First 12 hours of sales (T-13 Days)

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-9 DAYS

 

1,612/11,682 - 13.8% occupancy

 

x0.27 of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-6 Hours) - $6.54M

x0.53 of Fast X (T-9 Days) - $19.6M

 

We should be looking at this performing closer to Guardians rather than Fast X. Reception is going to make or break on this one.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

There's nothing opening sales this week. Pixar is going all blind on Elemental which I don't think would've done good anyways. We'll see what they do with Indy and if Universal is confident enough to launch tickets for Ruby Gillman.

[Purple Minion]

13 hours ago, Carlangonz said:

There's nothing opening sales this week. Pixar is going all blind on Elemental which I don't think would've done good anyways. We'll see what they do with Indy and if Universal is confident enough to launch tickets for Ruby Gillman.

 

Can't believe this is the same Pixar that made Inside Out gross over 400M lc. Sad times for the former animation powerhouse.

[Purple Minion]

All Time Movies, lc

 

28    625,965,616    Despicable Me 3 (2017)

29    622,200,000    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023)
30    618,218,437    Ice Age: Continental Drift (2012)

---
36    596,734,707    Maleficent (2014)

37    591,800,000    Fast X (2023)
38    591,366,759    Iron Man 3 (2013)

[Carlangonz]

5 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Can't believe this is the same Pixar that made Inside Out gross over 400M lc. Sad times for the former animation powerhouse.

Tbh I don't know how could it turn out in the end. This and Ruby Gillman are the biggest mysteries of the summer for me because we're this close to release and given how unpredictable original animation has been since pandemic they both could go either way. 

[Purple Minion]

Transformers Universe

Dark of the Moon had the biggest opening, Age of Extinction is on top of total figures, and Bumblebee got the better legs. Could Rise of the Beasts reach the level of the first movie?

 

Movie	OW lc	OW aud	Total lc	Total aud
Transformers 4	$     107,809,982	1,941,349	$     435,599,543	8,578,896
Transformers 3	$     120,023,611	2,098,411	$     359,431,756	6,692,416
Transformers 5	$       99,583,747	1,885,315	$     271,664,217	5,743,170
Transformers 2	$       69,588,433	1,556,798	$     247,609,242	5,936,603
Bumblebee	$       53,813,989	932,789	$     227,049,677	4,558,642
Transformers	$       59,093,958	1,425,928	$     195,923,690	5,219,624

Edited June 7, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

On 6/5/2023 at 3:15 PM, Carlangonz said:

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-9 DAYS

 

1,612/11,682 - 13.8% occupancy

 

x0.27 of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-6 Hours) - $6.54M

x0.53 of Fast X (T-9 Days) - $19.6M

 

We should be looking at this performing closer to Guardians rather than Fast X. Reception is going to make or break on this one.

THE FLASH PREVIEWS - T-7 DAYS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9
The Flash	74	1924	12276	15.67%	19.35%

 

+3 shows/+594 seats across 2 locations.

 

From all locations:

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Fast X (T-7)	96	3970	17153	23.14%	30.38%	48.46%	$17.93M

 

From two locations only:

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-9	% of comp	Comp in lc
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (T-7)	17	1259	3314	37.99%	n/a	61%	$14.46M
The Flash (T-7)	19	768	2854	26.91%	15.14%

 

If we compare Flash's T-7 with Guardians' final on day of release then its running at 32.92% of the total and $7.8M in the comp.

This isn't actually looking good for it with either comp especially because it doesn't have IMAX, 4DX, 3D and with a couple exceptions is missing PLFs as well. May be Spiderverse effect hurting it more than expected and it'll take for it to have jumps until the final week.

Let's see how it goes; especially compared to Guardians; it'll end up being really close in allocation and shows but even if matches it reception then previews would end up around $21.5M and pending reception opening weekend would be somewhere between Spiderverse and Guardians 3.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 6/5/2023 at 3:10 PM, Carlangonz said:

TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS PREVIEWS - T-2 DAYS

 

1,293/5,407 (+50.88% from T-7 - 23.91% occupancy)

 

x0.22 of Guardians of the Galaxy (T-6 Hours) - $5.24M

x0.19 of Fast X (T-2 Days) - $7.36M

TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS PREVIEWS (T-6 HOURS) 

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	38	2160	5407	39.65%	67.05%

 

No change so far in total shows/seats.

 

Comps at the same point before previews (T-6 Hours)

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	Growth from T-2	% of comp	Comp in lc
Fast X	96	10139	16907	59.97%	59.97%	21.3%	$8.76M
Guardians of the Galaxy 3	63	5845	12534	46.63%	n/a	36.95%	$7.88M

 

Great pace at the end; it grew quite well from both comps. Unfourtunately like The Flash this is getting a deflated ATP due to lack of premium formats and is unclear how walk-ups may be due to lack of shows between 8:00PM-10:00PM slots. I'm thinking previews may be around what comps suggest and then 4-Day opening between $100M-$120M lc - $5.7M-$6.9M USD

[Claudio]

So Transformers and the Flash both lack of PLFs for their OW. Any idea what movie will be getting all the PLF during their OW?

[Carlangonz]

7 minutes ago, Claudio said:

So Transformers and the Flash both lack of PLFs for their OW. Any idea what movie will be getting all the PLF during their OW?

Not OW but only previews. For OW -and therefore its entire run- Flash is only missing 3D and Transformers is missing Screen X but there's only a couple of them in the country and they have no effect.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Final allocation for Rise of Beasts is 31k seats. On par with both Little Mermaid and Spiderverse.

 

Looking at Thu sales I think OD incl previews can go a bit higher than Mermaid's OD. Hopefully OW pushes above to $130M-$140M.

[Purple Minion]

Mario becomes the first movie in modern times to cross $85M, as per Mojo.

 

$85,134,964.

[Psylocke]

 

[Purple Minion]

ER lowest since mid 2016, should work in Optimus Prime's favour.

[Purple Minion]

$2.8M OD for Transformers, close to 50M lc. Let's see if it can hit $9M OW.

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

$2.8M OD for Transformers, close to 50M lc. Let's see if it can hit $9M OW.

Yeah must be Wed-Thu-Fri around $47M looking to top Little Mermaid/Quantumania numbers.  

[froztking]

On 6/6/2023 at 4:14 PM, Purple Minion said:

 

Can't believe this is the same Pixar that made Inside Out gross over 400M lc. Sad times for the former animation powerhouse.

how much did inside out do in its ow ?

[Purple Minion]

15 hours ago, froztking said:

how much did inside out do in its ow ?

 

 132,246,902 lc with a 2.62M audience. Ended up grossing 485,893,407 lc and selling 10.84M tickets!